She'd take away white women away from Obama, and blacks from Clinton. She'd is probably a bigger threat to Obama than to Hillary. My sense tells me that only a few blacks will vote for a Republican because he/she is black. But quite a few Democratic white women will vote for a Republican women.
I've been saying for a long time that Condoleeza Rice would make McCain almost unbeatable in the fall. If the Democrats choose Obama as their nominee, disappointed white women will defect to McCain. If the Democrats chose Clinton, disappointed blacks will defect to McCain. I think McCain choosing Rice as VP would be a brilliant move. Since I think Obama is going to win the nomination, I actually think Kay Bailey Hutchinson will be McCain's optimal pick.
A long time ago I read a study which showed that in general elections, Republican women were the strongest candidates. Democratic men came in second, and Democratic women lost most often. However, more recent studies indicate that Democratic women now run strongest for legislative type seats. Republican women run strong in general elections, but have a tough time winning Republican primaries.
Other than Alberta Fujimori former president of Peru, I can't think of a racial minority who was democratically elected to the highest office of their native country. (I don't consider South Africa before 1989 as being democratic).
That said, the question is whether racism or sexism is easier to overcome. The question is not which is deeper, worse or the bigger problem. Sometimes, we tackle the bigger problems before the smaller problems.
Racism and sexism may also be expressed differently. For example, Blacks may have a tougher time becoming a CEO of a large company than a white woman(Which appears to be true)but domestic abuse against women may be more prevalent than against men. So the comparisons may not be so easy.
Very interesting observation. Do you know why? It's the paradoxical result of the Conservative Supreme Court declaring the racism is worse than sexism.
According to the United States Supreme Court, racism is so bad that "strict scrutiny" must be used to see whether an affirmative action is constitutional or not. Since racism is so bad and remedies requires to recognize race, remedies to racial discrimination are unconstitutional.
However, sexism isn't so bad so only "intermediate scrutiny" is required to see wither an affirmative action with respect to gender discrimination must be used. In this case, because sexism isn't really that bad, the government can use affirmative action to remedy gender discrimination.
Twisted logic is the reason why affirmative action has benefited women more than racial minorities.
Most people in their hearts believe that racism is wrong. However, many people believe that sexism is not wrong due to biological differences between the sexes. So on a theoretical level sexism seems harder to overcome.
However, we haven't completely overcome neither sexism or racism, so the question of which is harder to overcome remains theoretical. In addition, in many ways, black men are treated worse than black women.
I'm going to be fair to McCain. For the most part, McCain will continue Bush's policy except for the mortgage crisis, where McCain proposes little action to do anything to solve this crisis. If you want the status quo, McCain is your candidate.
There is a definite polling pattern in states that Clinton tends to win.
Initially, Clinton starts off with a big lead. When the campaigning begins, Obama surges and sometimes even takes the lead. But once it gets close to election day, Clinton surges again. I think Pennslyvania will continue this pattern and Clinton will win by about 10 points.
The pattern is due to Obama's charisma and money advantage. People fall in love with Obama. But as election day closes in, people get cold feet and go back to Clinton.
Even if the Florida delegates are seated, and I have no evidence that Dean will back down, it won't do any good if the Florida delegation is seated 50-50. If Florida is to count, then it should be according to a revote and if there is no revote, according to the January 29th primary.
Yes, in the future we will be celebrating Hillary Clinton. Clinton's campaign run is just as historic as Obama's campaign run.
One important note: Hillary Clinton is not the first woman to win a presidential primary contest for a major party. Shirley Chisolm, an African-American woman, won Louisiana and Mississippi in the Democratic primaries in 1972.
That's in the books in the city where I live. Rules have to be followed, so the rule breakers can't play. Let's punish them by firing squad.
Actually, the rules stated that violating states would be punished by stripping a state half of it's delegates. There was a loophole giving the DNC the ability to impose further sanctions. But stripping a state all of its delegates was very unwise. Notice how the Republicans never had a Florida and Michigan problem. Also notice that the Republicans also punished New Hampshire and Iowa for violating their rules, too. Effective punishment must be proportional and imposed fairly.
Should the death penalty be imposed for all crimes? No, punishment must be proportional, and certainty in punishment is helpful. The rules stated that violating states would be stripped of half of their delegates. This rule would have been proportional, and fair and sound if it had been certain. Howard Dean overreacted by stripping all of their delegates. The Republicans were smarter, and now they don't have a problem, but we do.
To strip the violating state one-half of the pledged delegates, and all of the unpledged delegates. Now, some people have argued that the convention rules gave the DNC to consider further punishment, but it's very unsound judgement to strip all of the delegates and effectively block them from revoting.
Unfortunately, when it comes to political strategy, Republicans are smarter than Democrats.
Missing in the argument is that Florida and Michigan moved up their primaries assuming that they would only be stripped half of their delegates. The Republicans were smarter than the Democrats in that they made their punishment of stripping one-half of the delegates, certain and they stuck with the punishment. In addtition, the punishment was proportional to the violation, and not like imposing the death penalty for adultery.
Since Obama is the front-runner it's really up to him to take the lead and resolve this issue. He's the uniter right? Time for him to take the lead and unite the party. If not, not only will Florida and Michigan vote for McCain in the fall, but many Clinton supporters will stay home or vote for McCain because Obama will look to them as just another typical politician looking out for his own interest at their expense.