this was a very interesting article that I thought raised some good points about this whole popular vote issue.
Obama leads in the popular vote by anywhere between 2 million to 3 million voters. How is this possible? The reason lies in the ever elusive math of the Democratic caucus.
When voters everywhere were watching the returns of, say, Kansas on Super Tuesday, most of them naturally assumed that Barack Obama won 27,172 votes to Hillary Clinton's 9,462. But those aren't voters they're counting, they're really just more delegates. County delegates. The county delegates represent an undefined amount of peoples' votes, depending on how many people arrive to the caucus and how many county delegates are assigned. This number could be anywhere from 5 to 100 people and beyond.
now this I agree with, too often were people quoting the delegates as the pop. vote saying that only 35,000 caucused in Kansas which is untrue, it meant there were 35,000 delegates elected.
and he did raise a great question HOW many people did each delegate represent?
Since there is no exact number of how many votes are actually represented in a caucus, let's just round it out to 20 voters per delegate, out of morbid curiosity. That means each delegate, on average, represents about 20 people, and we will multiply the final tally by 20.
Therefore, in Kansas, Barack Obama gained 543,440 votes to Hillary Clinton's 189,240 votes. This is a far wider margin of victory than Clinton supporters would like to admit, but decidedly more accurate.
what this would mean is, if there were 4 delegates awarded, then 80 people were there to caucus to elect those 4, that seems a bit high.
But let's just say, for arguments sake, that we're overestimating how many people a county delegate represents. Let's call it 10 rather than 20. Then the tally becomes 271,720 votes for Obama, and 94,620 for Clinton. Still a substantial victory. And that is the absolute rock bottom lowest average estimate.
these means in a place where 4 delegates were elected, only 40 people showed up. now anyone here caucus this year? does only 40 people at your place of caucus seem a bit low? I know here in MN we had a couple hundred at mine.
There have been 13 caucus states so far in the Primary and Clinton has only won one of them. Obama handily defeated her in Iowa, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, Hawaii and Wyoming. Clinton won Nevada.
The current tally of county delegates (that are available) for these states, has Obama at 366,764 and Clinton at 156,563. When we multiply these numbers by 10, it puts Obama at 3,667,640 and Clinton at 1,565,630, a margin of roughly 2 million votes.
ok ok but maybe each 1 presenting 10 people is still to high, lets drop it down to 5. if a place had 4 delegates to elect ONLY 20 people showed up to caucus, once again in a season of RECORD turn out does each delegate representing 5 people really make sense? but alas lets see
366,764 * 5 = 1,833,820 people
156,563 * 5 = 782,815 poeple
Difference = 1,051,005
now even if we say each delegate represents ONLY 5 people, Obama still would have a 1 million vote lead JUST from the caucuses!
but what about MI and FL
I am just going to seat MI and FL as is because that is the easiest thing to do, also we know Obama has a lead when every other state is counted in so we will ignore those numbers and just work from this.
Clinton MI vote = 328,309
Clinton FL vote = 870,986 - 576,214(obama) = 294,772
total = 623,081
subtracted from 1,051,005
Obama Pop. Vote lead = 427,924
thus when we actually try and figure out the actual votes from the caucuses and we seat MI and FL as his, Obama lead is still 427K more then Hillary (ignoring his lead gained form all other states)
but incase some how you still think that each county delegate repsenting 5 people is still to high because of states like Utah or something, lets drop it to 3
366,764 * 3 = 1,100,292 voters
156,563 * 3 = 469,689 voters
Difference = 630,603 voters
- the FL/MI 623,081 voters
Obama lead = 7,522 voters*
*Ignoring his lead from all states that are not a caucus or FL/MI
any lower then 3 and I think we are kidding myself, obviously this is all estimates, but we really need the caucus states to release their numbers because as we have seen here we may just not be getting the full picture.
and as someone who voted in a caucus state, I want to make sure my vote is represented in that Pop vote total, as much as anyone from MI or Florida want to be counted.
so discussion what do you think the number of voters is that the county delegates represented?