• comment on a post Blogs, Germs, and Steel over 6 years ago

    Immigration is the third commonest offense in US jails

    No, it's the third most common offense in Federal prisons and jails.  But over 90% of prisoners in the U.S. are in state and local prisons and jails, not in Federal prisons.

    Not only should 'Federal' be substituted for 'US' in the post, but you need to say that Federal prisons are less than 10% of the whole, and an unrepresentative 10% at that.

  • comment on a post Mapping the General Election over 6 years ago

    Even if we buy his assessment of the states (which I don't), it's 160-157, not 159-159.

    I noticed something was wrong when his EVs totaled to 539: M base 159, M lean 61, tossup 107, O lean 53, O base 159.

    Those states are actually 160-61-107-53-157.

    Anyway, except for MO, VA, and OH, all of Ambinder's tossups are Dem leaners.  WA has evolved into a Dem base state.  NJ is either Dem base, or a really really heavy Dem leaner.

    AK and ND are McCain leaners, and it wouldn't surprise me if the next WV poll showed it to be less than safe, but let's leave WV and GA where they are until each has another poll.

    So I'd score it at 154-67-44-90-183, from McCain base through tossups to Obama base.

  • comment on a post Edwards Open To VP After All? over 6 years ago

    picking Edwards would be a step backward to the past

    This makes no sense to me.  Edwards was the one dragging Obama and Clinton forward to more progressive policies on health care, global warming, and a host of other issues.

  • comment on a post Obama's Economic Speech And A Step Beyond Bush over 6 years ago

    That's what Obama's doing to McCain.  Great stuff.  Few things have heartened me as much this year as that speech.  I knew Obama was an amazing counterpuncher, but here he is, going out there from the opening bell, landing a whole flurry of punches.

    McCain's in trouble already.

    As diarist sricki notes, Obama also mentioned his intention to partner with Elizabeth Edwards on his health care plan. Elizabeth, as we remember, chose initially to endorse Clinton's plan over Obama's.

    Even before that, of course, Elizabeth Edwards favored the health care plan of her husband John.  And now that both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards are out of the race, that's the more relevant datum.  I assume Elizabeth thinks Obama can be persuaded into supporting a health care plan that's got a lot in common with the Edwards plan.

  • comment on a post An Audition For Webb? over 6 years ago

    Man, nobody goes to Bristol; it's a long way from anywhere.  I know - I used to live there.

    That's firmly in south-central Appalachia - a good place to show he's serious about reaching out to the sorts of voters he lost in the WV and KY primaries.

    But it's tough country for Obama.  It's just across the state line from upper east Tennessee, which has to be the most conservative part of the state.  

    Should be interesting to see what sort of turnout and response he gets down there.

  • Poets, Stalin, Kuala Lumpur,
    Pygmies, budgies, Kuala Lumpur

    What - that wasn't the first thing that came to your mind?  Sheesh. ;-)

  • on a comment on Heads Expode Thread over 6 years ago

    "All right, we'll call it a draw."

    She didn't need to make any decisions last night.  She's the decidee.

  • comment on a post "Stay strong! Stay the course! Kill them!" over 6 years ago

  • comment on a post Live From Hillary Clinton Victory Speech over 6 years ago

    Love them 'rising sun' Hillary posters.

  • comment on a post Post PR delegate update over 6 years ago

    One RCB vote changed everything.

    I think you misspelled "failed to change anything."

    Have some cheese to go with that.

  • comment on a post Hillary Clinton's General Election Strength over 6 years ago

    I really think that's all it comes down to: Obama's been getting it from all sides, while the GOP shifted their fire from Hillary to Obama months ago - and indeed has been somewhat supportive of her.

    That's finally been sinking in over the past month.  It would be just the reverse if Obama were the one trailing, and Hillary was about to wrap up the nomination.

    Hell, it was the reverse just a few months back, when Hillary still looked like the favorite.

    If one boat is sailing into a headwind while the other has a tailwind, the boat with the tailwind may well seem to be the faster boat.  But the boat we choose, whichever one it is, will have to sail into the headwind.

    If we chose that boat on the basis of its speed with a tailwind, that would be kinda dumb.

  • comment on a post Obama looks to the West over 6 years ago

    It's an oddity that Clinton has become the stronger GE candidate against McCain. When I voted for Clinton back in Feb, she wasn't any stronger than Obama, but as the campaign has went on, Clinton has become stronger against McCain than Obama, even as her chances to win the nomination dwindle. As someone that just wants Dem to win the presidency, Clinton wasn't my first choice, but her chances look pretty good now.

    What's so odd about it?  Obama's been getting hammered from both Hillary and the GOP.  The GOP's been semi-supporting Hillary in the Dem race ever since it became clear, a few months back, that Obama was going to be hard to overtake.  After a couple of months of the GOP's holding its fire (and Obama's attacks were always restrained, knowing he'd need Hillary and her supporters in the fall), of course Hillary started to look better.

    This isn't rocket science.  Same thing would have been true in reverse - in fact, it was true in reverse, just a few months ago, when the GOP had been aiming its guns at Hillary, before they figured out Obama had the upper hand.

  • They've scheduled a morning session and an afternoon session.  But they've asked their members to not leave until the next day, so they've left room for it to go into the night.

    I live about an hour's drive away, but I'm not going to spend a summer Saturday on this.  I'll check in on the Web every now and then.

  • Obama's almost certain to reach 2025 next Tuesday night.  (DemConWatch says he's got 1976 delegates; if he can get 35 in PR/SD/MT, he'd only need 14 supers this week, and there are 7 'Pelosi Club' members who've said they'll vote for the winner of the pledged delegate majority.)

    Once he's in the end zone, they aren't going to move the goalposts back in a way that even temporarily undoes his win.  Not happening.

  • Elrod's post makes no sense if you make the RBC insertion.


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