SUSA says AA turnout is 14% in their latest poll. I used that number and made it 90-10. To get to 100%, there are 4% "other" and working backward, SUSA has her winning those by 60-40, give or take (with a huge MOE, of course).
I assure you I did the math correct.
If you don't like the result from SUSA, write their agency. Show me how my math about their poll is incorrect and I'll give you a cookie.
Not really. They have had Clinton's polling number about right, with undecideds breaking to Obama.
That's why I keep saying it is important to look at the "challenger's" highest sustained polling number. For Clinton, she's not getting over 40 in North Carolina. So, if I was betting, I would say she is in store for a 20 point loss based on previous contests.
Kentucky cancels out Oregon on the same day (I think), and in fact, I would wager she wins Kentucky by nearly 2x the margin as he wins Oregon.
But, she is going to lose NC by ~20. I think she has to win Indiana, if even by a blade of grass, to move forward.
Would say PA C +10 to 13, which gives her some good talking points, but not enough to change the dynamics of North Carolina. She is not going to win a state where 40% of the electorate is voting 9-1 against her. Just not going to happen.
Then he "won" Nevada too, since he got more delegates there, despite a 6% loss.
But, people back in the reality based community know that more people favored Clinton in Nevada than Obama. Same in Texas. Delegate counts are not a direct representation of voter will, or Clinton would have won the delegate count in NH and NV, yet did not despite her vote wins in each.
PA - Clinton by 15%
NC - Obama by 5%
IN - Clinton by 10%
WV - Clinton by 25%
KY - Clinton by 20%
OR - Clinton/Obama Tie
SD - Obama by 10% (perhaps less after the above)
MT - Obama by 10% (perhaps less after the above)
PR - Clinton by 20%
PA - C +13
NC - O +19
IN - C +6
WV - C +25
KY - C +20
OR - O +8
SD/MT - O +10
PR - C +20
I think you are very generous to her in NC and Oregon.