McCain-Palin saves at least one Senate seat - Alaska. Teddie gets carried over on Sarah's skirt.
Also, Colorado and New Hampshire are now back to being toss-ups and Louisiana might be a pickup for Republicans due to the "Palin Effect".
Dem's easily take New Mexico and Virgina
Obama should have listened to Shumer by picking Hillary. Heck, Lieberman is going to go Republican. It's possible for the Dem's to win two and lose two (LA and CT). What a turnaround - all due to a moosehunting mother of five no one heard of 10 days ago. Only in America!
In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/-- 3 points for both samples.
The Obama campaign and MSM has had a more than a week camped out in Alaska and there is no 'there, there'- nothing is sticking.
The only hope now is for some 'gotcha' journalist to catch Palin in a major gaffe. Already you see Obama, Biden, and the entire talking head class screaming for press interviews of Palin - that's all that's left to counter the 'Palin Effect'.
She interviews with Charlie Gibson this week, so we will see.
The Ras' tracking poll, out today which showed a tie race, has the answer to your question as to where McCain's new support is coming from:
"McCain leads by seven points among men while Obama leads by six among women. On Tuesday, when Obama's lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women."
White working class (no college) women are moving to McCain-Palin en masse. This result strongly suggests the move in the polls is due almost entirely to Palin's selection and speech performance. If that is true, the move in the polls is not a bounce, it is a structural change in the fundamentals of the election.
Indiana is not a battleground state - safely in the McCain column.
Your right about it coming down to Michigan. Obama will easily keep Pennsylvania and McCain Ohio. Palin will be going from one small town to another in Michigan non-stop and McCain will live in McComb Cty.
Obama will spend his time trying to get Michigan to forget about their now imprisoned Detroit mayor.
Your right. The debates will mean little, the same as 2004.
This has turned into a 'base' election once again. Obama's 50 state strategy that turned into an 18 states strategy is now down to a 7 state fight after the Palin selection. The ballgame is:
Obama will win Iowa and New Mexico - Bush states in 04'
McCain-Palin will win all Bush votes from 04' and pick up some moderates attracted to McCain and white working women (no college) for Palin vs.
Obama's massive edge with young people and 95%+ African American total with turnout numbers in excess of 80%
Really comes down to Michigan, Ohio, and PA. Whoever wins two out of three wins the election.
It's now ALL GOTV - it will end up plus or minus 10 electoral votes. WOW
McCain-Palin does not have to win all Hillary voters or even a plurality of them, he just needs to pick up the white working class women (no college) that voted for Hillary in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. This group makes up about 20% of ALL Hillary voters. If McCain picks up this group, with the newly re-activated Christian conservative base and McCain wins two out three of these swing industrial states and he's President. It's simple math.
P.S. Colorado, Nevada, and Montana are now firmly in the Sarah camp