This is just one of the horrifying and inept foreign policy / war management blunders that make W such an embarassment to this country. There's a reason that this (and no other civilized) nation has a policy of "preemptive" war - it's because such a policy is downright barbaric and has too much potential for abuse, and sure enough, the first thing that happened under the "Bush Doctrine" is that Cowboy George invaded a sovreign nation that had not attacked us based on alleged threats that turned out to be lies. This is exactly why the Bush Doctrine is such a miscarraige of justice and abuse of power. Tens of thousands of people have now died, including over 1000 of America's finest and bravest, based on a policy that no leader of a civilized nation would ever even think of implementing.
On top of that, he's implemented a policy of institutionalized torture in our military while berating other nations that employ torture, pulled out of strategic missile treaties while using weapons proliferation as a justification for attacking Iraq, and has even undertaken a project to develop new nuclear weapons while planning his next conquest in Iran because of their nuclear weapons development program. It's really sad to think that 50% of this country has been hoodwinked into believing that Bush is any different than the terrorist windmills he is battling in Iraq...
I'm really not pro-Kerry in any particular way, but George Bush makes me sick. It's up to us to end this tyranny.
This state is winnable. Forget Philly, get Pres. Clinton down there for some stumping ASAP! If anyone can energize a huge GOTV in AR, it is him. AR would instantly make up for what looks to be a GOP gain in Iowa.
Speaking about CO, does anybody know what the latest on the split electorate referendum is? There could be 4 more EVs there, although I've had reservations about this from the start. Think about it, if you're voting Bush in CO, why in the world would you vote yes to a referendum that would give Kerry four free EVs, four free EVs that might decide the whole election? If Bush is polling over 50% there, and most polls recently have him at 50% or greater, that referendum should be DOA.
Also, if you want to talk about states to steal, why is Pres. Clinton in PA where Kerry is already +6 and not in Arkansas, where polls have been fairly tight (mostly within -5 anyway). I think Gore made a HUGE mistake in 2000 by not having Clinton campaign in AR, and it looks like (if he is healthy enough to be out speaking, that is), Kerry might be making the same mistake. Those could be points for the taking that Kerry can't win himself.
This election is closer than partisan types on either side will admit. This is what Kerry has to do:
Carry PA & MI. Without both, he is toast.
Take at least one of OH & FL.
Not lose badly in the Midwest.
Here's my opinion of these things happening:
These states are looking good. In fact, neither is even much of a battleground anymore, IMO.
I think OH is more likely than FL, which is a shame because FL makes the MW situation much simpler. If either guy takes BOTH, that's game, set, & match, folks. I think Kerry will probably take one of these, probably OH.
This is where the game gets complex. There are three serious battleground "states" (states in quotes b/c I need to group IA and NM) in the MW: MN, WI, and IA/NM. If Kerry wins FL, he needs to hold just one of these (assuming he also flips NH, which I view as nearly certain). If he wins OH, then he needs to hold 2 of these states.
Of the three, I think that MN is a pretty safe bet, especially with The Body in our corner. Therefore, if Kerry wins FL, I think he wins, period. On the other side, I think both IA & NM are in serious peril. Bush has been trending very strong in IA, and this state is a lot more like Kansas than Illinois. People in this part of the country just relate much better with Bush than an academic, liberal New Englander. NM polling is more sparse, but I just have a gut feeling it's going to Bush, too (it's surrounded by a sea of definite reds).
That leaves WI. If you've ever lived in the Midwest, you'd know that WI and Wisconsinites are a breed of their own (the kind of people who wear t-shirts in -10 degree weather). WI is a fiercely independent state with what I would think would be a conservative lean, but willing to make the right choice, too (WI & MN are like yin and yang where MN is fiercely independent with a liberal lean...). I am worried because WI is another place that will have a harder time relating to Kerry than Bush, but I also think that the photo op of Kerry duck hunting probably played very well in WI (Cheyney's very quick attack on the photo op shows that they are worried about it). That is a side of Kerry that WI people can relate to that they probably hadn't seen or thought of before. I'll be interested to see if that translates to a bump in the next round of polls or not. If not, I'm very afraid that Bush is going to take this one (he seems to have more momentum here recently). It will also depend on Democratic GOTV in Milwaukee and Madison (which basically won the state for Gore in 2000).
Therefore, unfortunately, my gut is telling me:
Bush 276 - Kerry 262 with Bush winning both WI and FL by less than 1%.
However, this is far, far from certain, and a win in either FL or WI would change the whole game around.