• comment on a post Election Results Thread over 6 years ago

    I'm rooting for a 20-plus blowout.

  • comment on a post Election Results Thread over 6 years ago

    What about the State Senate? Are the voters taking out their anger only on Fletcher, or on other Republicans as well?

  • Right, but 49+12 = 61. Lieberman, Landreiu, Nebraska Nelson, Salazar ... I only need seven more. You've got Baucus, Byrd, McCaskill, Pryor, Lincoln, Florida Nelson, and who knows which other moderates might go wobbly.

  • I read this as saying they will pick whatever nominee they want and dare a dozen or so Moderate Democrats to vote against him or her.

  • Aren't these totally unreliable? Isn't their voter screen casting a very wide net?

  • on a comment on SC Debate, YouTube CNN over 7 years ago

    Actually the town hall debates usually have less milquetoast questions than the journalist moderated debates.

  • ... this is hearsay. It could have been an Edwards supporter or staffer who heard this and went to the press with it.

  • comment on a post Clinton on the Bankruptcy Bill over 7 years ago

    Clinton voted against cloture, which was the last best chance to kill the bill.

    The 2001 version of the bill was dead letter; the House would not pass the bill because it included provisions to eliminate bankruptcy protections for anti-abortion protestors or some such.

  • comment on a post Immigration Deal Expected Today over 7 years ago

    A good deal for immigrants currently in the states.

    As far as I can tell, conservative Republicans traded a long fence that won't work for a short fence that won't work and accepted passage, while Democrats gave up a path to citizenship for guest workers. The mass deportations just weren't going to happen.

    If guest workers are allowed to apply for green cards, then it's not a bad deal. Employers will have lots of leverage over guest workers, but they would have had that over any "path to citizenship" scenario. If they can apply for green cards it's roughly the same thing, just with lots of extra steps.

  • comment on a post Finances 2008 over 7 years ago

    Has Clinton announced for President? Or just announced an exploratory committee? The exploratory committee is precluded from engaging in certain activities, which might help save her money. Also her various advisers might still be on the payroll for her PAC.

  • comment on a post Democrats Seize Fundraising Advantage over 7 years ago

    Each of the three major Dems has a very different donor base.

    Obama averaged $138 from his 50K online donors (the highest), and $362 from his 50K offline donors. I believe he cites 90% of contributions under $100 (though some may be contributing twice).

    Edwards averaged around $80 from his 30K online donors and $1070 from his 10K offline donors. He cites 80% of contributions under $100.

    Clinton ... it's unclear. But it's likely that her online donations are somewhere between Obama's & Edwards, which means she averaged $100 from 40K online donors and $2080 from 10K offline donors. She's probably around 70% of contributions under $100.

    It is hard to tell from just these few numbers ... we will need the full 4/15 filings ... but it looks like Obama's campaign has more low dollar contributions, and has a lot of contributions from people who couldn't or wouldn't max out, but could give $250 or $500. It's possible that Obama has as much as 40% of his money coming from low dollar donors, and Edwards as much as 30%. We'll have to wait and see.

  • comment on a post Senate 2008: Pickup Opportunities Abound over 7 years ago

    If Rehberg challenges Baucus it will be a dogfight.

    Also if Jindal loses to Breaux, Landreiu will have to work.

    Tim Johnson's health is an issue.

    But everyone else is in decent shape.

    Work hard, but stay bearish, lest we suffer a letdown on election night. Two seats would be gravy.

  • comment on a post New National Polls over 7 years ago

    My assumption is that all articles bring the social issues because they know that Giuliani will be subject to a vicious attack.

    Mel Martinez won his Senate primary by attacking his main rival for being "the darling of the homosexual lobby" for voting for hate crimes legislation. It's total death in the Republican primary, more than anything on the Democratic side except saying you want to fiddle with Social Security (which no one ever says). It will take one TV ad and one direct mail piece, and it will be over.

  • comment on a post New National Polls over 7 years ago

    Man, the Democratic base has the idea of compromise so thoroughly beaten into it, it is really kind of sad. Even though nine in ten Democrats oppose the war, fully half say that supporting it was a good idea back in 2002?

    I believe that approval for the war at the very beginning was about 70% in the general public, which means about 50% of Democrats supported the war. I thought the figure would be lower (around 40%), but not that much lower.

  • comment on a post Obama Gets Strong, Early Response in Iowa over 7 years ago

    My extremely early prediction is that Obama is going to take Iowa.  There is near universal support for him among the college Dems in Iowa.

    In Iowa, the messenger matters. Everyone is oversaturated to the point of disgust. Having credible foot soldiers with local roots is super important.

    The latest Zogby poll has Clinton & Edwards tied at 24, with Obama at 18. Now, at the moment, no one else has caucus viability.

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