This is a really good analysis of turnout among self identified partisans. As far as a slient majority of Democrats that have yet to appear, it would have to come from two sources.
"McCain independents" -- people who as a matter of principle will not identify with a party, but are for all practical purposes Democrats. [I believe there have been studies that show a large number of independents are closet Democrats].
Young non-voters. It's unlikely they'll show up, but this is the only other place they might materialize from.
Feel free to correct me; I live in Washington, so I'm not aware of conditions on the ground.
I do think Oregon is the third most vulnerable Gore state.
Oregon hates taxes. And I mean hates taxes. It's about as bad as it is in New Hampshire. They have an anti-rainy day law that forces the state government to refund any surplus annually. But their legislature meets bienially! Oregon tried to pass a tax hike to fund their schools; the consequence of not passing would be that schools would not be able to stay open for the year. The ballot referendum failed.
Also, like Washington, Georgia, Oklahoma, Colorado, and probably a few other states, Oregon suffers from the "city-state" problem, where voters from outside the city often define themselves by being of the opposite party of voters in the city, or of generally opposing or distrusting cityfolk. [in Oklahoma, interestingly, the trend is backwards; the city is Republican and the countryside is still Democratic].
Bush can win Oregon by going everywhere outside of Portland [and certain places within Portland] and saying the word "tax" as many times as he can.
Now, having said that, liberal activism is pretty hefty in Portland, so there may be enough of a ground game to put it to an end.
With about 50% of precincts reporting, Denise Majette has a 6 point lead over Cliff Oxford, Bob Lamutt with a 58-42 lead over Tom Price, and Lynn Westmoreland with a 54-46 lead over Dylan Glenn.
Majette will unfortunately get little help in Georgia, even though polls show things closer than the 2000 and 2002 results would have you believe. But she's a more credible candidate that Alan Keyes, at least :).
Man, black Republican's just can't catch a break. When is the North Carolina runoff?
[I'm the anonymous cowards who wrote the long post about GA. I just have an account now :)]
A long standing joke:
Q: What's the worst thing about Atlanta?
A: It's surrounded by Georgia.
[It's like Texas and Austin]
Economically, Georgia is fairly progressive. It has a progressive income tax, and a lower sales tax than many other Southern states. It's slightly more pro-labor than places like AL, SC, MS. The HOPE scholarship has been a great aid for getting local students to go to college, and was the model for many other states' college scholarship programs. I would bet that Arkansas is probably ahead of Georgia on economic progressivism, but I can't find the right Citizens for Tax Justice study to point to :). But it's pretty good.
Socially, Georgia is responsible for a bunch of serious eyesores.
Bowers v Hardwick, the 1980s decision reaffirming a state's right to enact sodomy laws, is from Georgia.
Doe v Bolton, the companion case to Roe v Wade, was from Georgia.
Furman v Georgia, the 1970s case ruling that the application of the death penalty was arbitrarily cruel and unusual, is from ... well, Georgia. For a long time Georgia was second in executions behind Texas [it has since been passed by Missouri and at least one other state].
Until 2003, Georgia still had the "Stars and Bars" Confederate battle flag. It has been replaced by the Confederate civil flag. This amounts to progress. I suppose we are still ahead of Mississippi, and either tied or ahead of South Carolina.
This year the state legislature has taken up bills to
(1) outlaw gay marraige, civil unions, and employee SSDP benefits
(2) outlaw or curb no-fault divorce
(3) permit the display of the ten commandments in public buildings
(4) outlaw piercings on ... certain portions of the female body
With Hank Aaron getting a little old, the most popular sports figure besides Michael Vick is probably John Smoltz, a lay minister who has done a lot of good for local communities, but is decidedly pro-life and anti-gay. He has recorded robocalls for Republican candidates.
The City of Atlanta does have a sizeable gay community, and is majority black [the Metro area as a whole is probably 40% or so black]. It is as cosmopolitan a place as you can find in the non-Florida South except Austin. But this is not necessarily saying much.