Bob Casey seems to be doing the same. His website: www.caseyfropa.com refers to him without the "Jr." on the front page. Then again, Casey Sr. died six year ago, so even the dumbest voter is probably not confused about who is on the ticket.
He was right last year, because it was a good year for the GOP. However, he didnt do good in 2000, IIRC. Also, he was off with the 2005 Governor's prediction, underestimating the final Democratic support. He had Kaine by 3%, Corzine by 5%. Kaine won by 6%, Corzine by 10%. I guess they werent drastically off, but nevertheless.
Have previous SOTUs helped Bush?? IMO, no. Check out polling report. No significant changes in his approval in 02 or 03, although his approval in general was pretty high. 2005 saw a small increase, because of the Iraqi elections. And check out what happened in 04, when he give the SOTU on Jan 20:
District 8: Tim Dunn, an Iraq war vet, is running agains tincumbent Robin hayes, and is making is CAFTA vote a huge issue(I think it was him who voted against, then got his arm twisted by Delay and switched his vote).Hayes got 56% of the vote in 04.
District 11: Charles Taylor, who also voted for CAFTA, is facing a challenge from Heath Schuler next year. Taylor got 55% of the vote in 04.
District 8: An exciting candidate Partick Murphy, si running against first termer and right winger Mike Fitzpatrick in a moderate district(Kerry won by 9,000 votes). Fitzpatrick got 56% of the vote in 2004.