Well for Webb to win he needs to dominate Fairfax County. He needs to poll the same margins that Kaine won there. He also needs to run as well as Kaine did in Prince William and Louduon Counties. If he can fare very well there, carry Richmond, and swing the precincts ot Tidewater VA his way, then he wins.
Well, as the IL primary was in March, I think you may have to wait until 2008. But for the district that she represents, I think Bean is the best Democrat possible for a district that gave Bush II 56% of the vote in 2004.
This was extremely dumb. And coming from a savvy politician like Rendell this is really disappointing. I would hope that Casey goes on TV with a strong statement from Rendell rebutting what he said earlier.
Typical far left answer. So, of course, you would rather have an "R" in that seat because you can't get a far left Democrat in there. You're type that would be happy with only 35 Democrats in the US Senate as long as they were "real".
I see your point. But what happens now that LA's black population has fallen. For Landrieu and other Democrats in LA to remain politically viable they are going to have to get more white votes. Personally, because LA is home to a lot of Cajun Catholics, I don't see the party's fortunes being dead in LA.
But Fields and Landrieu's dislike for each other stems from the 1995 Governor's race. Landrieu finished third in the primary, which enabled Mike Foster to defeat Fields by a 2-1 margin. Fields felt agnry because Landrieu "didn't support him" even though he would have lost anyway.
So this carried over into 1996. Fields threw temper tantrums, especially as the Courts ruled his district unconstitutional. So he hemmed and hawed, and that's part of the reason why Landrieu eked out a 5,000 vote win against Woody Jenkins.
But how do the Democrats solve their problems in LA now? Now that Hurricane Katrina has emptied out New Orleans, I assume that many of the blacks moved to Baton Rouge. How does the Democratic Party win now that Lousiana is admittedly less black?
In a recent poll, 65 percent of blacks opposed same-sex marriage, although other surveys have shown strong support for laws banning discrimination against gays. What offends most black people is the comparison between the gay-marriage struggle and the black struggle for civil rights.
"A national poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press in November found that 60 percent of black respondents opposed gay marriage. A December New York Times poll put the figure at 75 percent. The Pew poll found blacks less inclined than whites or Hispanics to support gay marriage, with just 28 percent in favor."
Admittedly some of these polls are two years old, but I doubt that public opinion can shift that quickly.
The only way that I could see them trying to make MD-1 more Democratic-friendly would be to somehow bring it closer to PG County and the DC suburbs.
What they could potentially do is give some of Hoyer's Southern MD precincts to MD-4. I would then try to give some of the hardcore black precincts now in MD-4 inside the Beltway somehow to MD-1 and create an offshoot. I would then try to somehow give Hoyer some of the rural Montomgery county precincts now held by Al Wynn. Such a district would be really, really weird to draw.
Earlier incarnations of MD-1 did include a very small sliver of Baltimore City. But it wasn't really enough to change the partisan dynamics. Although MD-1 does have more registered Democrats, they vote Republican mostly; or at least, they vote for the GOP in presidential and Congressional races. They may still vote for Democrats at the local level.
Doing this probably is impossible. The 6-2 balance is probably the best that the Democrats in MD can do.
The other thing that could be done potentially is to bring Roscoe Bartlett's seat further into Montgomery County. But doing that would probably not leave enough voters for Chris Van Hollen and Al Wynn.
MD-1 and MD-6 are both heavily Republican districts. As late as 2000 MD sent 4 Republicans and 4 Democrats to Congress. The heavily Democratic legislature sought to change the balance in the 2002 redistricting. They wanted to eliminate the districts of Connie Morella (R) and Bob Ehrlich (R).
The MD legislature basically conceeded two districts to the Republicans. One district, the 1st, extends from the Baltimore suburbs to the Eastern Shore. It also picks up the Severna Park area of Anne Arundel County. This district belongs to Wayne Gilchrist. It picks up the more Republican parts of the Baltimore suburbs, taking away crucial Republican precincts in Baltimore and Harford county from then 2nd-district Representative Bob Ehrlich (R).
The 6th extends from the Susquehana River, across northern Harford and Baltimore counties, all of Carroll County, Damascus in Northern Montgomery County, Frederick County, and the rest of the Western Panhandle. Like the 1st the 6th takes in heavily Republican parts of northern Baltimore and Harford county. It then includes the heavily Republican Baltimore/Washington exurbs. Most of its population lives in the Baltimore, Harford, Caroll, Northern Montgomery, and Fredrick county areas.
Thus this district is heavily Republican. It is the home of Roscoe Bartlett (R). Earlier incarnations of this district (dating back to the 1980s and earlier) included liberal parts of Howard County and Montgomery County, but its current configuration maximizes its strength. There is a Democratic-friendly precinct to be found there.
The old 2nd basically was Northern and Eastern Baltimore County, a sliver of Anne Arundel County, and all of Harford county. While Democrats were a majority of registered voters, they voted for Republican presidential candidates. It was the quintessential district dominated by "Reagan Democrats".
By giving the more heavily Republican parts of the 2nd to the 1st and the 6th, Ehrlich (R) found himself in a hostile district. This new district extended like a claw from the Susquhena River, through southern Harford County, Eastern Baltimore County, the Federal Hill part of Baltimore City, and Anne Arundel county. It became more Democratic-friendly. Thus Ehrlich (R) vacated the seat to successfully run for Governor, allowing Dutch Ruppersberger (D), then County Executive, to win the seat without any problem over Helen Bentley (R), who had held the seat in the 1980s and the early 1990s.
Giving Damascus and heavily Republican extreme northern Montgomery County to Roscoe Barlett (R) ended Connie Morella's (R) career. Her district, the 8th, picked up a sliver of Eastern P.G. County, picking up towns like Takoma Park, Mt. Rainer, Colmar Manor, Bladensburg, and Hyattsville. These towns were heavily Democratic and had never supported Morella. These towns made the district too Democratic even for her. She also lost parts of northern Montgomery County to Al Wynn (D), who took away parts of the northeastern rural part of the county. She also picked up eastern parts of the county, especially Silver Spring, that made her district more hostile. The new 8th was simply too Democratic even for Morella.
The old 8th included Western and Northern Montgomery County. It didn't include the Eastern part of the county, which the 1990 redistricting gave to Al Wynn (D). While this district was still heavily Democratic, it was white and affluent enough to keep Morella. As I described above, once the new 8th ceeded Damascus, the rural north, and places like Laytonsville to the 4th and the 6th districts, it became too Democratic for Morella.
Thus, when talking about MD's Congressional races, the partisan balance is going to remain 6-2 in favor of the Democrats. And this is fine by most MD Democrats. This is how the map was supposed to work. MD-1 and MD-6 take in an overwhelming amount of MD Republicans to keep the formerly GOP-leaning 2nd district now held by Dutch Ruppersberger (D) and Connie Morella's (R) former district in the hands of the Democrats.