• comment on a post Iraq Exit Strategy: 1, 2, 3 over 9 years ago
    I wish you would drop out of the race since all you are doing is helping to re-elect Santorunm. You have no experience, haven't even been elected to the office of dogcatcher. Your positions are out of the mainstream of most PA voters. I really hope to God that you lose in the primary badly.
  • So what? Moveon does not represent PA voters. It represents left wing activists. Pennachio will probably do well in the Moveon poll because it will be stacked with fanatics and ideologues. And if I am not mistaken it is not restricted to Pennyslvania voters. So even if Pennachio does well in that poll it will be meaningless since it will include a sample that is highly skewed and biased--one not reflective of mainstream Pensylvanian voters.
  • I think Pennachio is idealistic, but woefully naive. He expects to be taken seriously even though he lacks the experience to be a Senator. He would lose badly to Santorum. If he were a Congressman or a state legislator with actual experience in PA government I'd be more charitable. But frankly his campaign is only going to hurt our chances of defeating Santorum.
  • comment on a post The Culture Of Hillary Hatred over 9 years ago
    I've read some of the anti-Clinton books that conservaitves wrote in the 1990s. I read some of the books that trashed Hillary. I read "The Case Against Hillary Clinton".  I tried to give them a fair hearing, but most of these books lacked any scholarly evidence. Noonan's book was based on hypotethical conversations that never happened. These books seemed to be filled with half-truths, little footnotes. They were quick reads and did not have any real first or second hand sources to back up their claims.
  • No it's me. I think Pennachio is a guaranteed loser.
  • comment on a post Encourage MoveOn to back Pennacchio over 9 years ago
    to endorse a candidate who is a guarnateed loser.  
  • comment on a post MoveOn's PA 2006 Senate Poll...and what's at stake over 9 years ago
    First of all I am going to say that yours is an admirable, idealistic, though completely naive, campaign. I don't agree with all of Casey's positions, but you are a guaranteed loser against Rick Santorum. If, against all odds, you and the rest of your fringe left supporters manage to win the Democratic primary, look to lose by at least 10%.

    What have you ever done in PA? Have you ever held any elective office? The answer to that is no. If you win the primary, look for the DSCC to cut off funding (not that they would ever be dumb enough to give it to you) and to write off the race. And then Santorum will be re-elected.

    Your position on a myirad of issues are too extreme for mainstream Pennyslvanians. You will not be able to win the votes of blue collar Reagan Democrats who aren't gay rights and abortion fanatics. Your base is probably only 20% of the PA electorate, if even that.

    You have never run for anything. From a resume standpoint you lack the stature to run against Santorum and you lack the experience. You are a guaranteed loser with no chance. If you were a House member I'd respect your candidacy. But you have never even served in the state legislature and thus expect PA to elect someone who has NO experience in government whatsoever.

    Casey has won three statewide elections, has been able to win the voters of blue collar Democrats that would repudiate your candidacy in droves, and has experience. Why should anyone support someone like you who is out of the mainstream of PA's values and thus unelectable?

    If you win the primary and lose, I will be here on election night telling everyone "I told you so". Yours is a campaign guaranteed to lose.

  • on a comment on Congressional Loyalty Scorecards over 9 years ago
    Well the model also needs to take into account the partisan balance of the districts.
  • comment on a post Congressional Loyalty Scorecards over 9 years ago
    You also have to take one thing into consideration. Not everyone can vote like Barbara Lee, Cynthia McKinney, or Maxine Waters. Some of these districts are GOP-leaning and conservative.

    While judging by votes is fair, in computing your decision of whom to "purge", you should also factor in the partisan balance of the districts in question. Perhaps you should also somehow factor in what industries/groups are important within each member's districts.

    But the way you are doing it, it seems like you are applying the Cynthia McKinney standard.

  • comment on a post Senate 2006: First Look over 9 years ago
    If Rudy runs downgrade it to toss up to Lean R. If Pataki runs downgrade it to Lean Dem.

    Lugar might retire in Indiana. If so, Baron Hill could make run a for it. But a lot of it would depend on Bayh making a full court press.

  • comment on a post Does Osama bin Laden Still Matter? over 9 years ago
    Musharraf has been almost killed twice this year. Could he have an interst in not catching Bin Laden? I think Pakistan and their intelligence agencies know more than they're letting on.

    I think that if Musharaff captures Bin Laden part of me fears that he may be the target of assassination.

    Or am I off base?

  • on a comment on House and Governor 2006 over 9 years ago
    Unforuntately the OH Democratic Party is in dire straights. They haven't won a statewide race for anything since John Glenn won re-election in 1992. They have lost all power in the state.

    That being said it's only a matter of time before the Democrats have to win something. The law of averages dictates that they will sneak someone in eventually.

  • comment on a post Redistricting IL over 9 years ago
    Collapsing IL-6 and IL-13 into one district is the base of the strategy. The goal there is to create one ultra-Republican district. DuPage has around 900K people, so the county itself can be one Congressional district.

    What I would do with the remaining DuPage county precincts is give them to the 4th and to the 7th. I might also extend a wing from Lipinski's seat to dilute the 300K people. If those 100K were spread over those seats it could work.

    Or they could merge IL-6 and IL-4 into one marginal seat.

    Make IL-10 like FL-22. Have it literally go from the IN-IL border and run all the way up to the WI border. It would be very thin--probably no more than 1-2 miles wide.

    I would the same with the other seats. However, I might also give Haster the 300K Republican voters left over from DuPage and concede his seat.

  • comment on a post FL proposes 11-day election, no precincts, weekends over 9 years ago
    The state government is inept. I am not sure if they could handle such an election properly. Given that it would be a massive change I am not sure that there is the institutional capacity to do it competently.

    One question there: Without "precincts", would the voter be allowed to vote anywhere in the state? And if so, would each polling station have the statewide list of voters?

  • Well I would concede one seat in the DuPage County area for the Republicans. And that means throwing Biggert and Hyde into one super Republican district. Du Page County has enough people to hold one district totally within its borders. I'd force Hyde and Biggert into that site.


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