Yeah, very very far. It overlooks the drastic victories that Hillary is going to rack up in West Virginia, Puerto Rico, and Kentucky. It underestimates what her victory in PA will end up like. And the assumption that Obama will win Oregon by 55/45 is also baffling. From what I can tell the only basis people have been assuming an Obama victory in OR is "because it's close to Washington state and Obama beat Hillary by huge margins there." That might make sense except for the fact that Washington was a caucus and Oregon is a primary.
Clinton is going to ravage BHO in Pennsylvania. Minds aren't very fluid here and we've had months to decide who's a charlatan and who's the real deal. The state of the race isn't any different today than it was in early March. I'd consider any fluctuation in polls the inevitable mercurial output of a distribution of random numbers within an estimated range.
It's beautiful in many ways. I don't think the race is over though. I'll vote for the Democrat in November irrespective of the nominee's identity. But a Hillary lead in popular vote is a strong possibility at this point and with the continued succession of polls showing Obama losing (badly) many big swing states (PA, FL, OH) to McCain with Hillary being palpably stronger, there's going to be a lot to consider for "neutral" superdelegates.
I love how Obama supporters get so excited that he's winning the popular vote WHEN AND ONLY WHEN you disenfranchise Florida, Michigan, and pretend that Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, WV, KY, IN etc. isn't going to happen.
I love this diary. It's so nice to see these viewpoints expressed here. During the 2004 election, I used to read RedState and FreeRepublic to see "what the opposition was up to." Now I feel that way when I read DailyKos.
I was a huge loyal reader & fairly active writer there but now I read this site more often. Diaries like this are the reason why.