The numbers yesterday were Obama 49 and McCain 43, so this is a one point increase. As you know, each of the tracking polls includes data from three days of findings, so the polls include two days prior to the debate and one day after the debate. Only Research 2000/Daily Kos reveals each day's individual results. DemFromCT observes:
Yesterday's polling, the first after the debate, was the strongest Obama day picked up by the R2K tracking poll. He led 51-42, and therefore, Obama had a +9 on Sa to go with +5 Th, +7 Fri.
While the three-day tally has a standard error of +/-3.0, the finding from any one day has a possible standard error of +/-5.1, so we shouldn't read too much into Saturday's individual findings.
McCain senior adviser Steve Schmidt says that the McCain campaign is going to attempt to change the conversation from the economy to other topics. The two themes that they are going to attempt to inject into the national conversation are these:
One is that Obama is not ready to be commander in chief and that, in a time of two wars, "his policies will make the world more dangerous and America less secure." Second . . . McCain will argue that, in a time of economic crisis, Obama will raise taxes and spending and "will make our economy worse."
Ed Schultz reports that insiders within the McCain camp consider Palin to be "clueless":
The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as "disastrous." One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, "What are we going to do?" The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is "clueless."
They're embarrassed by her, and if I wasn't afraid for my country, I might succumb to a temptation to feel sorry for her. She is well on her way to becoming nothing more than a national joke, and some of the jokes are more than a little funny:
John McCain showed up without running mate Sarah Palin, which is a shame because she actually has a lot of experience with financial matters. You know, she lives right next to a bank.
There is more and more noise in the blogosphere and in the mainstream media about the Palin farce. I wonder if it's going to come to a head in some way or other.
Andrew Sullivan today has published on his blog 12 documented lies of Governor Palin:
- She has lied about the Bridge To Nowhere. She ran for office favoring it, wore a sweatshirt defending it, and only gave it up when the federal congress, Senator McCain in particular, went ballistic. She kept the money anyway and favors funding Don Young's Way, at twice the cost of the original bridge.
- She has lied about her firing of the town librarian and police chief of Wasilla, Alaska.
- She has lied about pressure on Alaska's public safety commissioner to fire her ex-brother-in-law.
- She has lied about her previous statements on climate change.
- She has lied about Alaska's contribution to America's oil and gas production.
- She has lied about when she asked her daughters for their permission for her to run for vice-president.
- She has lied about the actual progress in constructing a natural gas pipeline from Alaska.
- She has lied about Obama's position on habeas corpus.
- She has lied about her alleged tolerance of homosexuality.
- She has lied about the use or non-use of a TelePrompter at the St Paul convention.
- She has lied about her alleged pay-cut as mayor of Wasilla.
- She has lied about what Alaska's state scientists concluded about the health of the polar bear population in Alaska.
He concludes that we cannot trust anything she says.
I thought it might be interesting to get a sense of the basic current view of Internet prognosticators of the Electoral College outcomes. Three Blue Dudes provides an overview to 84 sites on the web that use various methods to project trends in the Electoral College. Twenty-one of those web sites updated their projections yesterday, September 22. Of those 21 sites, 17 gave Obama the advantage in the Electoral College, two gave the advantage to McCain, and two projected a tie. Neither of the sites that saw an advantage for McCain projected he had enough electoral votes to claim the presidency: just that he had an advantage among the states they felt they could project. The average Electoral College projections for the 21 sites that updated their projections yesterday were these:
Ten of the 21 sites included estimates of toss-ups in their projections. Those 10 sites had an average 83.7 toss-up electoral votes.