It's now up to 39 percent Edwards, 34 percent Clinton and still under 30 for Obama. I think it's from small rural precincts. Good news for Edwards that he is holding strong in those areas, but we will see.
I know the new Zogpy poll takes 2nd choices into effect, but do any these polls factor into effect the "electoral college effect"; that is the extra weight that rural counties get in proportion to their population. Are these pollsters just hitting folks in Des Moines or are they spread out across the state?
The stupid quirkiness of this system is probably the best chance my favored candidate has to come out on top, but it is idiot way to pick a president.
I support a constitutional amendment to become a parliamentary system with public funding like Canada. Our system is one step away from American Idol.
"Hi this is Joaquin with the Richardson Campaign and the rumor is false- there are no deals. These are typical last minute election shenanigans.
Joaquin H. Guerra
Richardson for President
Obama was always a strong second place choice for me behind Edwards. It was hard not to be inspired by his persona and his progressive roots said a lot to me about where he might lead America. But he manged to piss away any progessive populist credentials he ever had in the last month. Yeah, he spoke out against the Iraq war but he's been MIA around any attempts to end it since then. He has essentially positioned himself to the right of not only Edwards, but even Clinton. He's pissed on labor, universal medical care and trial lawyers. He's fed into stupid right-wing talking points. He could easily be at the same place in Iowa w/o doing any of those things. That he freely choose to do so is a real bad sign.
The way he's been talking is giving me a creeping feeling that an Obama presidency will be a confused, directionless and frustrating mess that will likely last four years and kill all chances to create a permanent Democratic majority. The GOP ain't going to call a cease fire just becuase of his charm. Kind of like the last President who acted like he walked on water and didn't have to listen to the party's base (that very nice man from Georgia). I hope I'm wrong.
I should have adde that all those polling firms which were pretty close to each other in 2004 are now all over the place. Plus, the DMR poll expected historic new turnout levels, plus particpation from independents. I bet new turnout will be high, but not more than the 60% the DMR expects. There is just no way.
Before Edwards (or Clinton) folks get bummed, I would check out the "How Accurate were the polls in 2004" post on Breaking Blue. Despite the purported accuracy of the DMR poll in 2004, nearly all the polls were pretty close to them. DMR had Kerry at 26%, Insider Advantage (the firm that has Edwards winning) had him at 24%. And the DMR had Gerphardt at 18%, when he only got 10%, with Insider closer to the mark at 13%. Of course Kerry actually won with over 35%, not 26%, so it ain't over till it's over folks.
A paternity test? That would mean removing fluid from the fetus which could risk miscarriage. She should have a needle jammed in her stomach and risk miscarriage so she can answer to Slate.com and the Enquirer? Even Fox is staying from this one.
Sorry, Occams razor may work for us, but full and public statement from both the father and mother ain't good enough for Mickey Kaus. He's gonna need a full gynecolgical exam from Ms. Hunter in the Slate lobby, pronto.
Once this dies off Mickey, here's a real hot tip...A friend of a cousin, whose aunt is a good friend at the Duncan Hunter campaign who used to know a guy who saw Fred Thompson once on Law and Order told me (second err..third hand?) that my neighbor who moved to Qatar 15 years ago is actually Mike Huckabee's and Hillary Clinton's secret love child.
Better get moving on that before another Huffinton Post intern scoops ya.
Wait a sec? Donahue from the Catholic League is attacking Huckabee? For what, wearing his evangelicalism on his sleeve. The same guy who went after Kerry because his religious director spoke at an AIDS rally(that' some how anti-Catholic is his view). The same guy who went all out for W?
If you didn't know it before, "The Catholic League" is part of the right-win GOP machine. If Romney put out an ad like this, you better believe Romney would have kept his mouth shut. Spouting religion, as long as you defend the perogatives of the neo-cons and the business eleite in the party, is ok bt him.
"Edwards is now engaging Obama more aggressively and this can only mean that some of the polls who have Obama above 30% may be into something."
I think if you notice from the article, it was Obama who picked this particular fight. Edwards line about fighting, not sitting at the table was always directed at Clinton. For some reason Obama decided to pick her mantle on this issue, although with a much weaker health care plan.
I can't believe Axelrod walked right into that. Bringing together NASCAR and NPR fans together: boring at this point but nice. Bringing together Americans who have been royally screwed by our health "care" system and insurance/drug company lobbyists who have dumped millions into buying off our elected representatives to keep the former screwed: no thanks.