• on a comment on Candidate Forum Thread over 5 years ago

    Or neither?

    America is not stupid.

    They've seen an administration staffed with lackeys, hangers-on, horse judges, cronies, and buddies from home.   They've see what a devastating impact staffing government with the incompetent and unqualified can have.

    It's a real issue - and it's more than just cabinet positions and agency leadership.

    Do you think FEMA is run by 5 people in Washington?  Do you think the thousands of people necessary to administer a large - but vital - government agency are particularly fired up to work for an agency that's being treated as place to put friends and donors?

    Do you think the DoJ is getting the best and brightest prosecutors - the people that are charged with locking up terrorists, mob bosses, and the like - when Justice becomes a little more than a partisan hit squad?

    Do you think the military is getting - and keeping - the best and brightest junior officers, tomorrow's NSC, tomorrow's joint chiefs - when the mantra is more expensive weapons, but substandard housing, substandard benefits, and substandard health care?

    You'll pardon me if I think a government "you can drown in a bathtub" doesn't make for a good talent recruitment tool.

  • on a comment on Candidate Forum Thread over 5 years ago

    Duh.

    Never mind... They just introduced it :-)

  • comment on a post Candidate Forum Thread over 5 years ago

    know the citation for the Kennedy-Hatch bill the last question was asked about?

    McCain didn't really seem to want to have that unqualified "yes" on record, and seemed to want to get a qualifier in there that got overridden by the applause.  I'm curious if there's been any action on it.... Of course, since McCain has set new records for a Presidential candidate missing senate votes - I doubt he's cast anything on it, but I'm curious.

  • comment on a post Candidate Forum Thread over 5 years ago

    Oof.

    I know McCain was going for a joke there, but I don't think "I view [Kennedy's return to the senate] with mixed emotions" worked especially well.

    Good thing no one's watching this, I guess.

  • comment on a post Candidate Forum Thread over 5 years ago

    I HAD to be mean, I didn't want to - but he MADE me do it.

  • on a comment on Quinnipiac: Obama Rising In Ohio over 5 years ago

    Oh jeebus...

    Reverse Bradley? ;-)

    I'm ready to toss that one out.

  • on a comment on Quinnipiac: Obama Rising In Ohio over 5 years ago

    Where are you getting the "trailing considerably" in IN from?

    The most recent IN poll I've seen - last week of August - from Howey-Gauge has Obama trailing within the MOE.

    I'm not saying I think IN is a two pt race, but I haven't seen anything that contradicts the most recent spate of polls.

  • on a comment on Quinnipiac: Obama Rising In Ohio over 5 years ago

    Collapse of epic proportions?

    I'll give you this, you're well on your way to getting that hyperbole merit badge.

    The simple fact of the matter is that unlike the congressional landscape, the Presidential election was simply never going to follow the same model.

    What's more, John McCain is the perfect - in fact, the ONLY, GOP candidate that can really run as a 'party outsider'... honest or not, the media narrative was just there for him... but the Obama campaign has been quite good at chipping away at it.

    If this 'epic collapse' - which just happens to coincide with the same time we see the standard convention bounce take effect - means we're back to tie game (though, state by state, it's simply not true -- Obama's cushion is gone, but if the election were held today, all signs say Obama still wins a squeaker).... well... I'll take that "epic collapse" any day of the week.

    Some folks just don't seem to have the intellectual wherewithal to understand how polling works and see the big picture around it.... Are you one of them?

  • on a comment on Quinnipiac: Obama Rising In Ohio over 5 years ago

    I'm sorry, but I just don't know how to discuss this with you...

    Obama breaks his own fundraising record and it's bad news?

    Let's see what the August numbers tell us... We can be all but certain that they'll be better than 55 million.... Will they be 56 million?  60?  70?

    All we know is that they beat July.

  • on a comment on Quinnipiac: Obama Rising In Ohio over 5 years ago

    Again, where is your evidence that they are "tapped out".

    Sorry to be so harsh, but that's nonsense -- Obama follows up record-breaking month by breaking his own record again?

    As for Intrade... well... Intrade also has HRC trading at 3% to win the 2008 GE.

  • on a comment on Quinnipiac: Obama Rising In Ohio over 5 years ago

    Oh sure -

    I'm not saying Rass is somehow tricking out their OH numbers at all.  

    I'm just saying that Rassmussen clearly has a model and methodology in Ohio that differs from everyone else polling the state.

    None of these pollsters are trying to move numbers or relay inaccurate results for partisan gain - they're simply using different models and methods.

    All we can do is look at them all relative to each other, note the trendlines, and go from there.

    Personally?  I think Obama has a narrow 1-2 pt edge in OH, and probably trails in FL by a slightly larger number.

  • on a comment on Quinnipiac: Obama Rising In Ohio over 5 years ago

    How can both be true?

    "Obama isn't bringing in as much funds any longer"

    "Obama broke his own fundraising record in August"

    They cannot both be true.  

    Per WaPo

    Sure - it's true that we don't have the numbers from August yet, but I do not think the Obama campaign would be going out on a limb if they didn't have the numbers to back it up.

    Yes- the RNC continues to pound the DNC, but party numbers are a little hollow because unlike the candidates, the parties regularly go into debt during election cycles.

    Might we be at parity when you add McCain+RNC and compare to Obama+DNC?

    Maybe...

    But again, where are you getting this "Obama isn't raising funds like he used to" crap?

    It's simply not true.

  • on a comment on Quinnipiac: Obama Rising In Ohio over 5 years ago

    It's not just Rassmussen vs. Quinnipiac.

    It's Rassmussen vs. the world.

    Rass the ONLY pollster - beyond an old and suspect Columbus Dispatch poll showing McCain up 1 pt - that has shown a McCain lead.

    Every other poll has showed, at worst, a tie.  Sure - Q is the only poll showing Obama up outside the MOE.

    But this is hardly a case of one pollster being right and another being wrong... It's a case of either one single pollster nailing it, while everyone else has it wrong -- or some degree of being right among everyone else and one pollster being wrong.

  • on a comment on Quinnipiac: Obama Rising In Ohio over 5 years ago

    But there's no evidence that Obama is in a position where he's hurting financially.

    If the balance sheet says it's time to conserve resources, fine... but we don't have any evidence of that.

    All indicators - rumors and statements from the Obama campaign - are that they broke their fundraising record with their August numbers.   I suspect they're waiting for an opportune news cycle to release the actuals.

    This isn't Kerry 2004 - where we're stuck with 80 million.   Obama figures to have at 50% more to spend this cycle.

    Is GA probably a waste of money right now?  Yes.

    Is extraordinarily cheap ND?  No.

    Is Indiana?  No.  Fer chrissakes.... we don't have any polls that tell us anything besides good news yet.

    Is NC?  No.  SUSA looks like an outlier fueled by a screwy party ID sample.

    Is also quite cheap MT?  Hell no - especially not with Ron Paul now officially on the ballot.  A plurality can win MT now.

    Now... should the Obama campaign be wise about where they deploy Obama, Biden, and top surrogates?  Absolutely.

    But there's no evidence that Obama needs to begin worrying about where he spends his cash because right now, all signs say he can still afford to spend money on what are still longshots.

  • on a comment on Obama bounce in Ohio? over 5 years ago

    Right -

    Though... It's interesting that Q shows Obama movement (from +1 to +5), while Rass shows movement McCain (from +5 to +7).

    That said -- Rassmussen is the ONLY poll that's ever shown a McCain lead in Ohio (except for a Columbus Dispatch poll from mid August that showed McCain +1).

    Everyone else shows OH Obama, though most within the MOE.

    At this point - at least when it comes to OH, it sure looks like either Rassmussen's model is off... or everyone else is.

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