• It's looking that way.

    What's more -

    COURIC:  Sarah Palin kept up her busy schedule today, meeting with several world leaders who are here in New York for the UN session.  But she took time out for an exclusive interview, in which we discussed the state of the economy at length.  We began, though, by addressing reports that the lobbying firm of Senator McCain's campaign manager received payments from Freddie Mac until last month. I asked for her reaction to that.

    PALIN: My understanding is that Rick Davis recused himself from the dealings of the firm. I don't know how long ago, a year or two ago that he's not benefiting from that. And you know, I was--I would hope that's not the case.

    COURIC: But he still has a stake in the company so isn't that a conflict of interest.

    PALIN: Again, my understanding is that he recused himself from the dealings with Freddie and Fannie, any lobbying efforts on his part there. And I would hope that's the case because, as John McCain has been saying, and as I've been on a more local level been on a much more local level been also rallying against is the undue influence of lobbyists in public policy decisions being made.

  • comment on a post Another "Bush Doctrine" Moment for Sarah Palin over 5 years ago

    She was a gamechanger, I tells ya'

    ...or -- is it that Quaylette wasn't built in a day?

  • comment on a post Help me Jerome. Need a dose of pessimism (UPDATE) over 5 years ago

    If 270 looks good - then goal is 300.

    If it looks like 300, then press for 350.

    If PA is looking good, hit VA.

    If VA looks good, head to Indiana.

    If IN looks good, try MT.

    If MT looks good, re-ignite ND.

    This is how you win.  This is how good teams win.

    When you've got your foot on the other guy's neck, you don't let up, you stomp HARDER.  You BURY the sonuvabitch.  You leave him broken, beaten, and utterly defeated.

    We can go back to the "he's better than Bush, he was a hero, it's a shame, yada yada" on 11/5 - until November 4 -- JOHN MCCAIN MUST BE CRUSHED.

  • comment on a post Whoops. McCain's Move Outed as a Political Ploy over 5 years ago

    Now is not the time to let up and enjoy the implosion of the good ship McCain, it's the time to make sure the wreck cannot be salvaged.

    The Obama campaign ought to be taunting him non-stop.  The blogosphere ought to call him a coward, repeatedly.

    It's time to push McCain's nasty temper button.  

    Press the advantage, Obama.

    Press the advantage, Dems.

  • comment on a post Whoops. McCain's Move Outed as a Political Ploy over 5 years ago

    How in the world could anyone cast a vote for John McCain?

    His campaign is becoming a joke.

    It's been a long, long, long time -- probably since the waning days of the 1996 election -- since we've seen what GOP flop sweat looks like.

    Well, this is it and it ain't pretty.

  • comment on a post John McCain To Suspend Campaign To Focus On Economy over 5 years ago

    This is silly.

    We're WINNING.

    The election is going to happen 11/4 whether John McCain has 6 weeks or 5 weeks of campaign time to close the gap.

    If John McCain wants to piss away one of those weeks, fine by me.

    We're winning, people... time is on our side.

  • comment on a post Republican Economic Plan: Blame The Victims over 5 years ago

    The far-right GOPers - the Pences and Bunnings who have been among the biggest bailout critics in GOP circules - have an alternate proposal...

    This proposal is to eliminate entirely the capital gains tax.

    Apparently, no one told them YOU DON'T PAY CAPITAL GAINS UNLESS YOU HAVE.... you know CAPITAL GAINS - meaning it this does nothing to address the toxic shitpile of credit default swap based securities that are driving this collapse.

  • on a comment on National Polls over 5 years ago

    I agree with Jerome that R2000's turnout model seems to be "unlikely."

    While I can agree that they have gone out a limb with a more heavily D-weighted, latino-vote (and minority general) tilted turnout model, I'm not so sure I'd call that model "unlikely".

    First of all, the "white share" of the vote declined by 4% from 2000 to 2004 and I see no reason why that percentage wouldn't continue to fall in 2008.  Latino's made up 8% of the vote in 2004 - R2K pegs that at 13% this year... Growth in the Latino share of the vote has NOT increased linearly.  13% looks a little high - but no more than a point or 2.

    Second of all, contrary to what has been erroneously commented several times -- AAs lag behind whites both in percent of registered among voting age AND among voters as a percent of population.... In fact, we have not seen "turbo-charged" AA turnout... the gap has closes from cycle to cycle, but not at a prodigious pace, and certainly not to the extent that the AA community "turns out" better than white America.

    Finally, if you don't like the R2K weightings, it's a pretty simple to re-weight to a +5 D (or whatever) result... if you fiddle with the demographic percentage, you would get some MOE float, but in general -- this would just mean R2K more or less agrees with Gallup.... meaning, their results aren't an outlier - their topline just looks different because of the way they weight.

  • Actually, M-D is one of the gold standard pollsters.  

    They're one to heed...

  • on a comment on Within the MOE over 5 years ago

    It is -

    But the problem was that he over-extrapolated and cherry-picked his sample.

    Nate's response correctly points out that if one looks at the entire breadth of states on the map, you can also find areas where Obama might be expected to win the undecideds handily, based on where he out-performed polling.

    I haven't gotten through Sean's response back to Nate because frankly, it was short substance and long on the immature flaming GOPers are famous for.

  • on a comment on Within the MOE over 5 years ago

    Actually -- that doesn't seem to be the case.

    Admittedly, I didn't check every election listed - but per the US Census (here for 2004--> http://www.census.gov/population/www/soc demo/voting/cps2004.html), African-Americans both registered to vote and voted at a lower percentage than did white Americans.  

  • comment on a post CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47 over 5 years ago

    on the Social Security offensive, too.

    I think next week, we're going to start to see some real good news coming out of Florida.

  • Did you have the same dream with the backwards talking girl and the burning cards?

  • comment on a post Polls show even more troubling signs for Obama over 5 years ago


    Don't eat the clues, Chief Wiggum.  This suit burns better.

  • Could be.

    Not that I trust ARG at all, but if the WV numbers are anything close to being in the ballpark (where the ballpark is +/- 6-8 pts), then we might well be seeing an undercurrent of traditional Dems coming home from the culture wars because they just can't afford them anymore.


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