• Against an even minimally skilled campaign, I might still be concerned -- but the campaign has McCain in IOWA!

    Iowa has been likely off the boards since summer... yet, McCain was just in Iowa yesterday.

    I think McCain has less a chance to hold Iowa than Obama has to flip Georgia.

    The McCain firewall has been completely breached at this point... I do not see how he can afford to play offense anywhere.   The smart move for McCain is to make desperate attempt to stem the bleeding and hope to only lose IA and NM.  

    The problem is, he needs to hold OH, FL, VA, NC, NV, CO, and IN.   Obama just needs any one of those 7.  We now have reliable polling showing Obama with marginal to substantial leads in 6 out of the 7.  McCain cannot afford time or resources in PA or MI.

  • That's basically what happened to Dole in 96 -- the party strategists and players more or less gave up and focused the last month on House and Senate races.

  • Quinnipiac has gone from outlier to coal mine canary to team McCain.

    I eagerly await the McCain camp fax blasting another "OUTLIER! OUTLIER!" release.

    Perhaps by now, they have a template they can just re-use and plug in the name of the new pollster?

  • comment on a post Son Of Post-Debate Thread over 5 years ago

    I don't know how, but it's seemingly increasingly obvious that the country thought Obama did much better than we did.

  • on a comment on Son Of Post-Debate Thread over 5 years ago

    Heh.

    Well - that cinches it - it should be me, not David Brooks, who should speak for middle America

  • on a comment on Son Of Post-Debate Thread over 5 years ago

    Partisan or mixed?

    I personally thought Obama won by a hair - and thus far, it seems to be only me and the focus groups that were more impressed by Obama on foreign policy than McCain (unlike everybody, I didn't think Obama was that good for the first 30 minutes).

    It's amazing... TPM, here, Dailykos, 538 - all the places I hit that were liveblogging -- everyone seems to say either toss-up or slight edge McCain-but he needed more.

    Yet - the narrative is QUICKLY developing that Obama won this debate.  ALL of the network flash polls are saying the same thing.

    Have we jumped the Democratic shark?  Are we so invested in worrying about our chances that we've gone off the tracks.

  • on a comment on Post-Debate Thread over 5 years ago

    jinx

    buy me a coke

  • comment on a post Post-Debate Thread over 5 years ago

    Update [2008-9-26 23:5:26 by Todd Beeton]:But it should be noted that when John McCain acted like a dick against Romney in the primary debates, he was punished with winning the nomination.

    It was a Republican nomination contest.  Republicans like dicks (stop laughing, you know what I mean).   With the Democratic battle full tilt, I don't think there were a lot of indies voting in the GOP primaries.

    If Sarah Palin didn't finally lock up the GOP base, I suppose McCain could go the asshole route to get any wingers he hasn't brought on board yet... he'll also lose by 15 pts because indies will desert him in drove.

  • on a comment on Post-Debate Thread over 5 years ago

    I guess that means it's me and the focus group then, because I wholeheartedly agree.

    I thought Obama was OK on the economy, but I felt he was much stronger on foreign policy.

  • comment on a post Post-Debate Thread over 5 years ago

    I gotta disagree.

    I really think Obama was much better in the second half than the first.

    I actually saw the first half as more toss-up and the second half more Obama.

    I think his style fits foreign policy better.  Maybe that's just because I'm more a foreign policy wonk, but that's just how I saw it.

  • comment on a post Jonathan's Debate Thread over 5 years ago

    no one really likes John McCain's condescension.... since Obama has proven himself quite capable on the issues, it just doesn't come off well.

    The opponent has to look addled like Bush before you can pull off the condescension thing.

  • comment on a post Jonathan's Debate Thread over 5 years ago

    Yowza.

  • comment on a post Jonathan's Debate Thread over 5 years ago

    I score the first half toss-up - no one really shined, but I honestly do think Obama is winning the second half.

  • on a comment on Todd's Debate Thread over 5 years ago

    Just said the same thing above - I think it's a style thing.  I just think his cerebral style fits foreign policy well.  He's much better on the economic populism than he used to be, but it's just not his style.

  • comment on a post Todd's Debate Thread over 5 years ago

    second half - much stronger.

    I almost wish we'd have started on foreign policy because Obama is winning the foreign policy portion of the debate.

    It ironically suits his cerebral style better than economic issues.

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