Hillary Catches Obama Down South

This evening per American Research Group:

South Carolina
Democrats    

                   Jan      Jan      Jan     Jan
               15-16   17-18   22-23   24-25
Clinton     38%     39%     36%     36%
Edwards     9%     10%     12%     22%
Kucinich      1%      1%      1%      1%
Obama       44%     45%     45%  39%
Undecided   8%      5%     6%     2%

I know my title is kinda croony, but the momentum is away from Obama at this point (see last column).  Edwards has gained, apparently at the expense of Clinton and Obama, but more so Obama.  If Clinton stays steady in the mid to high thirties, Edwards may eat up just enough of Obama's support to carry Clinton to victory.

Tags: Democratic Primary, South Carolina 2008 (all tags)

Comments

17 Comments

Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South

I don't believe it. This poll looks like an outlier. I can't imagine Obama winning by less than 10 points, and wouldn't be surprised if it was more than 15.

by OrangeFur 2008-01-25 08:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South

ARG has by far the best track record for accuracy, and they show Clinton with all the momentum.  Even the expert pundits are finally getting ahead f the game on this one; I heard a couple today predicting a big Clinton win.  Anything less than a 4 point victory will be a crushing setback for her campaign.

by aretino 2008-01-25 11:32PM | 0 recs
Aretino stop posting these silly C boosters

If you are hoping to change the expectation game against a huge Obama victory you're wasting your time.

by ottovbvs 2008-01-26 05:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South

Good news from ARG is the kiss of death.  Edwards picked up 10 points in 2 days?  If only.

by Steve M 2008-01-25 08:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South

An Ebony/Jet poll currently has blacks at 26% undecided....  Obama has not sealed the deal.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-01-25 08:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South

For more info on that, go to:

http://skepticalbrotha.wordpress.com/

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-01-25 08:44PM | 0 recs
ARG IS NOTORIOUSLY WRONG

HOWEVER,  it should be noted that if Obama wins South Carolina by anything less than double digits,  it will show indeed that Obama has not sealed the deal with AA's.  Jesse Jackson btw,  won South Carolina in 1988 with 64 percent of the vote, in his history making candidacy.  

I do think that there is more at stake in this election, however, than identity politics alone, so who knows.

by Sandy1938 2008-01-25 08:53PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG IS NOTORIOUSLY WRONG

I looked it up today, it was 54 percent.  But yeah, he kicked the stuffing out of Al Gore!

by Steve M 2008-01-25 09:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South

That poll is an outlier. Obama has a 20 point win in the bag. I heard it from some experts on TV tonight.

by hwc 2008-01-25 08:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South

You're an expert.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-01-25 09:04PM | 0 recs
Re: ZOGBY POLL

Latest Zogby Poll

OBAMA 41
CLINTON 26
Edwards 19

by BDM 2008-01-25 09:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South

Meh.  Not counting on it.

by DaveOinSF 2008-01-25 09:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South not quite

COLUMBIA, South Carolina (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama expanded his lead on rival Hillary Clinton to 15 points heading into South Carolina's bitterly contested presidential primary, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Saturday.

Obama, an Illinois senator, gained two points on Clinton overnight to lead 41 percent to 26 percent just hours before voting began in Saturday's primary. John Edwards was in third place after slipping two points to 19 percent.

by BDM 2008-01-25 09:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South

ARG- they are awful.

by reasonwarrior 2008-01-25 09:20PM | 0 recs
After NH

Obama better be working overtime to turn his voters out.  

by Toddwell 2008-01-25 09:38PM | 0 recs
Re: After NH

Well, I'll speak for myself. I have to report at 6am in 3 hours to work as a poll checker (important part of the GOTV). We're doing everything we can. I don't too much about Clinton's organization, but I would guess that it's better than Edwards' but slightly weaker than ours. I have no idea how this will turnout. I'm just going to do my job.

Now it's time for my cat-nap.

by DPW 2008-01-25 09:50PM | 0 recs
It seems very unsettled to me.

My commonsense tells me Obama wins this but with below a 10% lead but there are enough shards of info to suggest something maybe happening out there. It probably just means that he isn't going win by the 20% his followers are predicting.

by ottovbvs 2008-01-26 05:32AM | 0 recs

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