Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by 18!

Many polls show PA tightening as did SurveyUSA in their last poll, well looks like they have picked up a new trend.

Clinton now leads Obama by 18 points.

Barack Obama lost ground among certain groups of voters in the battleground state of Pennsylvania during the last week, according to a new poll.
If the Democratic Primary were held in Pennsylvania Tuesday, Hillary Clinton would beat Obama by 18 percentage points, according to the results of a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for NBC 10 and three other TV stations across the Keystone State.

http://www.nbc10.com/politics/15821754/d etail.html

Women and white voters barely budged and continued to support Clinton at more than 60 percent, as they have in the previous two Survey USA polls.
However, a change in men's support has negatively affected Obama.
Last week, Obama moved within 12 percentage points of Clinton, but men who flirted with the notion of voting for Obama at the end of March appear to be moving their support back to Clinton.
The poll suggests that men make up 42 percent of likely voters.
Obama also lost ground among voters between 35 and 49, down 18 points, while Clinton continued to lead among voters 50 and older.

here is a video i made for Hill, entitled She is Going On.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoSkI2xrx b8

Tags: PA Clinton Obama Primary April (all tags)

Comments

217 Comments

Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Go Hill!

by zane 2008-04-08 06:22AM | 0 recs
Polls, polls, polls.

Yesterday one showed Obama and Clinton tied.  Today a different one shows this.

Why do I feel polling is not an exact science?

by TomP 2008-04-08 06:34AM | 0 recs
it is not

and some polls are better than others.  Also, what you can take from a polls is often different depending on what you want to see.

However each poll has something to say and we are discussing this one today.

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 06:57AM | 0 recs
I did not say you cannot discuss it.

I just find it amusing that teh differences are so stark.

In the end, the poll that matters is the vote in Pennsylvania.  I don't care which Dem wins, so I find the difference among the polls amusing.

They both cannot be right.

by TomP 2008-04-08 07:49AM | 0 recs
It is odd that the differences are so stark

but SUSA is definitely the best this cycle and last.  I think the differences actually indicate the negative Clinton coverage over the last couple weeks and some expected fluctuation as a result.  PA will turn out for Clinton, any Clinton big time.  Hell, I know a who gaggle of Bucks county Republicans that already switched to vote for her- and no, Republicans in Bucks County don't really listen to Rush (most of them anyway).  Whether she wins the nom or not, PA is an absolutely perfect state for Clinton.

by linc 2008-04-08 08:08AM | 0 recs
Re: It is odd that the differences are so stark

Thanks for the info.

The flucations in polls seemed not to make any sense.  It shoudl be interesting to see what happens.

by TomP 2008-04-08 08:20AM | 0 recs
I stopped following non-SUSA polls two months ago.

SUSA really is the gold standard this season.

I'm a bit disappointed by the findings of this poll, but I'm willing to bet that it's pretty accurate.  I can't say that about, say, Zogby or Rasmussen (or worse, ARG).

by Elsinora 2008-04-08 10:19AM | 0 recs
Re: I stopped following non-SUSA polls two months

Recc'ed for the great sig :-)

(Plus I agree with you about SUSA).

by markjay 2008-04-08 11:46AM | 0 recs
Obama supporter here

as an Obama supporter, I can say that this poll is the equavalent of a punch in the nards!!!:)

But I like the expectations that it sets...

by Democratic Unity 2008-04-08 07:41AM | 0 recs
But which one, if any, do you

think is actually accurate?

by TomP 2008-04-08 07:50AM | 0 recs
Re: But which one, if any, do you

I dunno. It's never a good sign to see a poll like this. I imagine the race is at about 8-10 points though.

by Democratic Unity 2008-04-08 08:24AM | 0 recs
Re: But which one, if any, do you

Actually the difference had been with more uncommitted voters going for her. They are very worried about the economy and her plans are concrete and everyone knows she'll be in there to win for them, not just the election. Obama has two problems now, the more people know him the less some like him, motivational speaking has a shelf life and he doesn't appear to be walking the walk these days, since he's been outed as a negative campaigner, but more it's his inexperience, the throw of the dice problem, no one really knows, maybe not even him, what his policies will turn out to be.  That's why she'll win big in Democratic states where there is a large group of blue-collar workers and working moms, and there indies and pugs can't cross over.  

by anna shane 2008-04-08 11:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama supporter here

LOL!

Okay...who's gonna reimburse me for the coffee I spit on my screen!

Just didn't see that one comin'...too funny.

Thanks for the chuckle.

by TxDem08 2008-04-08 08:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama supporter here

Just what I was thinking. The Clinton spin was moving from "She's going to take PA in a blowout!!" to "Obama has to win PA to stay in the race!"

Meanwhile, another poll shows Obama still in double digits nationally among Dems, and still another has Clinton falling out of the margin of error behind McCain.

Those polls, of course, don't count.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsm emo.com/polltracker/

by BlueinColorado 2008-04-08 08:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama supporter here

Well, spin is spin.  Obama himself stated the other day that he thought he was down by 20, even though there was no poll to support it.  I'm willing to accept that the Rasmussen showing it tied, and this latest SUSA, are probably outliers, and that the race is probably 8-10 points.

by Benjamin3 2008-04-08 09:26AM | 0 recs
I Don't Have Any 'Nards

So this poll hasn't hurt me one bit.

by toyomama 2008-04-08 09:17AM | 0 recs
SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by 18!

Good news, among all of these negative Hillary reports. I'm glad here something positive about Hill.

by Check077 2008-04-08 06:28AM | 0 recs
This could create inflated expectations

Could be bad for Clinton if this creates unrealistically high expectations for her and then she doesn't meet them, even if she does win.

by Q 2008-04-08 10:14AM | 0 recs
Re: This could create inflated expectations

Real expectations: If Hillary can't win by 15% she's toast.

by Lefty Coaster 2008-04-08 11:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Well this is interesting.

Do we trust one of the few outlets who has been reliable, or do we trust the ground reports, turnouts to rallies and every other polling outfit?

by Bobby Obama 2008-04-08 06:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

could be that SUSA is ahead of the curb, they captured the tightening during the tuzla story, and now tey are picking up a widening as that fades.

by zane 2008-04-08 06:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

I think that SUSA and Quinnipiac have been the two most accurate pollsters this year.

Quinnipiac in fact has been pretty stellar on the dem. side of things (never off by more then 5 points). They were 3pts off in FL and NY. 5pts off in NY and OH.

SUSA has been hit or miss on the Dem side. They were off by more then 10 points in NY (10), AL (12), SC (16) and MO (12). On the flip, they got CA right and were 1 pt off in NJ and NY.

the Q has Clinton up 5. SUSA has her up 18. I expect that the truth lies in the middle of these two pollsters.

by alex100 2008-04-08 08:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Survey USA has been the most accurate pollster this cycle.  And no, I will not trust your interpretation of events in PA.

by truthteller2007 2008-04-08 06:31AM | 0 recs
Rasmussen out in an hour

If Rasmussen is closer to Qunnipaic, I'm going to think that SUSA is an outlier. I usually trust SUSA but they too have been wrong a few times. Remember Missouri?  They had Hillary winning by like 6 and she lost.

by regina1983 2008-04-08 06:59AM | 0 recs
yeah Okay Regina

Actually according to Obama Roolz, Hillary won MO.  It's all about delegates right?

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 07:02AM | 0 recs
Re: yeah Okay Regina

Isn't the Democratic party "roolz" about delegates?

by ragekage 2008-04-08 07:17AM | 0 recs
Re: yeah Okay Regina

I don't even try anymore.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner 2008-04-08 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: yeah Okay Regina
they both got 36 pledged delegates. in any regard, SUSA was off by 12 in MO: http://www.surveyusa.com/wp-content/uplo ads/2008/02/fixed-active-pollster-report -card-thru-020608.JPG
by alex100 2008-04-08 08:28AM | 0 recs
Re: yeah Okay Regina

I'm totally cool with "Obama Roolz" being the actual, on the books, rules.

After 8 years of Bush Roolz which meant "everything the President says are the Roolz" I'm looking forward to the opposite.

by Lettuce 2008-04-08 08:32AM | 0 recs
Re: yeah Okay Regina

Given the recent add ons of one for Obama, one undeclared, Obama is now ahead in the MO delegate race and of course he won the popular vote in the Show Me state.  

Is there any state where Hillary has outperformed Obama in the second tier?

by howardpark 2008-04-08 10:23AM | 0 recs
Re: yeah Okay Regina

No.  Let's go by Hillary's. Which rules are important o her this week?  I lose track.

by mikeinsf 2008-04-08 11:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen out in an hour

Agree, and would add that from the news story linked above the Survey USA sample appears to be 58% women to 42% men.  I believe most others have roughly a 57 - 43 split.  Crosstabs aren't yett posted on USA Survey web sie.  

by Kensingtonbill 2008-04-08 07:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen out in an hour

typo - I meant most others have 53-47 split

by Kensingtonbill 2008-04-08 07:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen out in an hour

They may have oversampled women in this one.  Would be interesting to compare it to the other SUSA's out of PA.  The one last week had Hillary up by 12, and the first SUSA had her up by 19.  In any event, I certainly don't think it's tied like that recent Rasmussen showed.

by Benjamin3 2008-04-08 09:01AM | 0 recs
I think they account for that

I'm not sure how they scaled this particular poll, but generally, if pollsters over-sample a particular demographic, they generally scale the final results to account for that.

by Q 2008-04-08 10:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Turnout at rallies isn't really a great indicator of voting performance, as both have consistently had major rallies.

I still think Hillary will win by double digits, but again because of the raising of expectations for the Obama side, it will be 'unexpected', 'surprising', etc.

by VAAlex 2008-04-08 06:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Whose expectations? Pre-Super Tuesday, Obama's awesome predictions xls had him losing PA by 5 points.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0 208/Obamas_projections.html

I imagine its been updated, but other than overestimating Hillary in most contests, it's been pretty accurate.

I would be very surprised if the win was double-digits, but that's not as an Obama supporter. That's just someone who yet to see Hillary take a large state other than NY by anything approaching high double digits.

by Lettuce 2008-04-08 08:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Did she win Massachusetts by double digit?

by stefystef 2008-04-08 11:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

yes, she won MA in double digits.

by colebiancardi 2008-04-08 12:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

"I would be very surprised if the win was double-digits, but that's not as an Obama supporter. That's just someone who yet to see Hillary take a large state other than NY by anything approaching high double digits."

Fair enough.

Whose expectations?

Oh pretty much everyone in the media looking at ridiculous polls, showing Obama winning California, coming real close in NJ, winning Massachusetts.

by VAAlex 2008-04-14 12:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Hillary's voter are senior citizens. They do not go to rallies, but they vote.

Size of rallies is NO measure of voting performance.

by ThompsonTOT 2008-04-08 06:49AM | 0 recs
and shift workers and single mothers

but they vote, I agree.  

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 07:04AM | 0 recs
Re: and shift workers and single mothers

Because God knows no shift workers or single mothers support Obama.

And why not single fathers? What's wrong with single fathers?

by ragekage 2008-04-08 07:22AM | 0 recs
Obamapologists and

hysterical hyperbole go together milk and cookies these days.

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 07:28AM | 0 recs
Good day Clintonbot.

by regina1983 2008-04-08 07:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Obamapologists and

Sorry, that didn't make any sense nor address the concerns I had. Perhaps you could stop exemplifying the behavior you so frequently decry and give me a straight answer.

by ragekage 2008-04-08 07:36AM | 0 recs
ummm

I do not trust turn out at rallies to say anything of importance President Howard Dean.

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 06:59AM | 0 recs
Rally turnout still a good sign

Rally turnout may not necessarily translate into votes, but such turnout is a great sign.  Dean may not have gotten the nomination, but grass-roots activity that his campaign helped develop has contributed quite a bit to revitalizing the Democratic Party.  The same goes for Obama.  Whether he wins or not, we should be glad he has run.

by Q 2008-04-08 10:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by
It depends.
It is certaily possible the other polls are accurate. It's also possible that while accurate at thte time, they don't accurately represent the state of the race now. Ground reports, not sure what to read into those, they aren't scientific. Turnout to rallies doesn't mean much. Obama draws high turnouts to rallies even in states where he loses badly.
by Mayor McCheese 2008-04-08 07:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

IT's really not complicated: Any poll that is good news for Hillary is infallible and reflects the feelings of all good patriots and Democrats.

Any poll that is bad news for Hillary is rigged, inaccurate, uses faulty methodology, and is too far out to be meaningful.

by BlueinColorado 2008-04-08 08:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Well I guess SUSA was bound to have one bad poll this season... no way 5 firms put is under 10 and it is actually 18.

by CardBoard 2008-04-08 06:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Does anyone remember NH?

by truthteller2007 2008-04-08 06:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

If you remember correctly Hillary barely won NH, so are you insinuating that she will win PA by under 3%?

by Bobby Obama 2008-04-08 06:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

NH - Obama was supposed to beat her by double digits.

She beat him instead, barely or not.  

by colebiancardi 2008-04-08 07:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

NH - Obama was supposed to beat her by double digits.

She beat him instead, barely or not.  

by colebiancardi 2008-04-08 07:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Hillary led in NH for, I think, every day except the few wimpy single-nighters going into the weekend. Real polls that came out then showed the continued status quo. There wasn't any real surprise in the campaign at the outcome.

But it sure sounds good on the Intertubes and TeeVee to say that!

by Lettuce 2008-04-08 08:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

That was due to several single night Polls which picked up tracking on the weekend, but not on Monday... in PA were talking about Multi-Day larger sample polls.

I see no evidence by which to believe SUSA here.  Perhaps if we were seeing a steady down-turn in the national number (which were seeing the opposite).  An event to drive down Obama or up Clinton (which we have not seen in the past week).  Or, collapsing Obama numbers in other states.

by CardBoard 2008-04-08 07:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

The standard for polls is that polls are 95% certain that the results are equal to actual percentages in the population within the margin of error.

In other words, 5% of the time, pollsters expect that a poll will be off by more than the margin of error.  5% is one of out twenty times.  

by politicsmatters 2008-04-08 06:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Of course I have no idea if this SUSA poll fits into that 5% category.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-08 06:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Remember they blew it with respect to Missouri. Their final poll had Hillary winning by 4 pts and she lost by 1.

I STILL THINK THAT THE AVG of poll's is best because you cannot put all of your faith in just one poll.

All pollster's blow one  periodically. If their results are correct then we should see them mirrored in poll's by other pollsters very soon.

by BDM 2008-04-08 07:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

"blew it with respect to Missouri. Their final poll had Hillary winning by 4 pts and she lost by 1."

That's hardly "blowing it," being off by 5 points.  Sure, they had the wrong outcome, but it was all within the MOE.  

Blowing it was Zogby with his +13 for Obama in CA.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-08 07:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Well, if I recall, they blew it on Missouri because their poll didn't cover the 6% Republican cross-over vote, which went big for Obama.

by Benjamin3 2008-04-08 09:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

That's according to their statistical model, most likely using the standard deviation derived from some sort of assumed Multinomial distribution.  However, polls in practice are outside the assumed MOE much, MUCH more frequently than the calculated stastical significance.

Why?  Stastical variance comes in two forms - process variance and parameter error.  The calculation of a confidence interval from an assumed distribution accounts for only process variance, or in this case, the likelihood that the percentages in your sample of people differ from the true percentages of the entire underlying population jsut due to random error.  However, and I don't know this for sure, I assume that the polling firms make no attempt to quantify the parameter error in their MOE.  Parameter error is also called model estimation error, and in this case represents variance in the final results due to incorrect voter turnout models or incorrect weighting of sub-strata of the sample data, or things of that nature.

Is this a significant source of total variance in political polling?  Yes, of course.  It is the reason actual results do not fall within the MOE according to the predicted stastical significance (95% or 97.5% or whatever is used).  Then why would a polling firm ignore the parameter error?  There are two reasons that I believe that polling firms ignore this, one practical and on mathematical.  The mathematical reason is that (unlike process variance) parameter error is impossible to calculate 100% accurately and very difficult to even estimate with any degree of confidence.  The practical reason is that these firms are also marketing firms.  Including an estimate of paramter error in your polls, from a marketing perspective, is like admitting straight off that your model is incorrect.  Not a great selling point, and after all, these people are a commercial venture, so marketing is a big part of what they do.

Incidentally, I also believe that this one of the major reasons that poll averages end up being far more accurate than individual polling firms, even when you take into account the reduction of process variance from aggregating polls.  In other words, the average of 5 unrelated polls on a race is more accurate than the aggregation of 5 Rasmussen polls.  Each pollster's proprietary model has intrinsic biases.  Aggregation of polls with many different models allows the biases of individual pollsters to cancel each other out.

What to make of all this for this race?  I don't know.  This seems like an outlier to me, but OTOH, S-USA has clearly established itself as the best pollster in the Democratic primary this season, so maybe they have hit on the correct model and eveyone else has it wrong.

by NJIndependent 2008-04-08 07:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by
Actually...
C+18 SUSA (4/5-7?)

C+10 Muhlenberg (3/27-4/2)

C+8 SV (3/28-30)

C+6 Quin (4/3-6)

C+5 Ras (4/7)

C+2 IA (4/2)

Even ARG (4/5-6)

O+2 PPP (3/31-4/1)

seven of 8 show 10 points or less. None of the seven showed any movement toward Clinton. SUSA may be right, but they are by definition an outlier here.
by Rorgg 2008-04-08 10:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

"Well I guess SUSA was bound to have one bad poll this season... no way 5 firms put is under 10 and it is actually 18"

Check out the California polls a few days before the election; only one poll starting with 1/31 had Clinton with a lead, and it was SUSA with the exact margin.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/ca/california_democratic_ primary-259.html#polls

by reggie44pride 2008-04-08 12:05PM | 0 recs
Well....

Q-piac has her up by just 6 (today). 18 seems like an outlier at the moment, but, yeah, SUSA has been pretty good so far.

Next couple of polls will give us a better idea if the trend is real, at least. Seems odd for Obama to be widening the gap nationally (Gallup, +9; Rasmussen, +11) while simultaneously losing so much ground in PA.

by SuperTex 2008-04-08 06:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by
Treat this survey with a pinch of salt. No way is she ahead by 18.
She is ahead by around 8-10, nothing more, nothing less at this stage.
by KathyM 2008-04-08 06:42AM | 0 recs
Good point - don't get overconfident

She's only up by 10. This will motivate us to call for HRC. Thank you!

by catfish1 2008-04-08 06:46AM | 0 recs
rolf

this poll may or may not be accurate but it is much more likely to be a source for statistics than you are unless you can show me your polling standards.

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 07:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Thanks. We'll work extra hard and make it 18!

by owl06 2008-04-08 07:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

I'll settle for 8-10, and feel good that Hillary finally went on the air with 5 new ads today.  Boy, I wish MI/FL could be settled this easy... ;-)

by Benjamin3 2008-04-08 09:18AM | 0 recs
Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

In the latest CNN "poll of polls" conducted March 26 through Saturday, Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a 7-percentage point lead over Sen. Barack Obama -- 49 percent to 42 percent; 9 percent remain unsure.

That gap is 4 percentage points narrower than a similar CNN poll of polls conducted March 26 through Wednesday. In that average, Clinton led the senator from Illinois 51 percent to 40 percent. Nine percent also were unsure then.

Which to believe? CNN which agrees with all the other recent ones or SUSA which deviates wildly?

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 06:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

Um...

what you quote is a "poll of polls", it's an average, so of course it "agrees with all other recent ones".  It IS all other recent ones.

I'm going with SUSA, they have been right most of the time this cycle.

by bawbie 2008-04-08 06:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

It's not surprising that people on a sinking ship will grab at anything they think will float.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 07:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

sinking ship?

I'm an Obama supporter, I don't think any of my ships are sinking.

I just don't believe crappy polling firms.

by bawbie 2008-04-08 07:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

Hey, I've read a lot of your posts lately, and I'm really happy to see that at least someone in the other camp can look at numbers (especially from SUSA) and be reasonable about them.

Mojo for you!

by hornplayer 2008-04-08 07:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

One word: Outlier.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 07:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

One word: Outlier

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 07:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania
yeah, that was what they said about OH  and MA etc...
But this polls has been more accurate than others consistently.  The polls right before election day will tell the tale, but I advise you to look to SUSA  if you want a good idea of what is happening at the moment.
by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 07:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

Ya gotta believe.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 07:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

You know, it may be a statistical outlier, but SUSA has been nailing it this cycle.

I don't understand why Obamabots are so interested in bringing down Clinton supporters over poll numbers?  It seems like we all have better things to do.

by hornplayer 2008-04-08 07:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

It's just sad to see Hilladroids grasping at every straw that floats by.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 07:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

I've uprated this only because the person using the term 'Obamabots' didn't get troll-rated.

Personally, I'd like to TR terms like "Obamabot" and "Hillbot" on sight. But until others follow along on that one, let's at least TR fairly. (And I'd rather uprate than troll-rate, which is why I didn't just TR the other comment.)

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner 2008-04-08 11:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

I did it just to highlight the use of "Obamabot." It's interesting that some found one term offensive but not the other.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 11:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

heh. don't even get me started.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner 2008-04-08 11:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 12:07PM | 0 recs
I'm happy for you

that you have good news this morning.

by GFORD 2008-04-08 07:58AM | 0 recs
Re: I'm happy for you

Thanks!

I am too :-).

by hornplayer 2008-04-08 08:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania
by better things, you mean calling people "obamabots" right? your post is dripping with something...
by alex100 2008-04-08 08:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

ok, i'm a dufus...I DID TR this at some point. I forgot. Sorry about that. I'll give you a 2 elsewhere.

But please don't call us Obamabots anymore.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner 2008-04-08 11:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

Look up-thread.  We've already settled it and agreed that Hillary probably leads by 8-10  :)

by Benjamin3 2008-04-08 09:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

And what was it last week? The week before? And the one before?

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 10:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

Said twice doesn't make it any more powerful.

Tell us about SUSA California's outlier?

by reggie44pride 2008-04-08 12:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

You don't like crappy polling firms or crappy polling firms that don't show Obama winning everything.

by stefystef 2008-04-08 11:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

This comment makes no sense whatsoever to me.

The crappiest of crappy polling firms is ARG, and they show Obama tied in PA.  

I don't believe it because ARG is a crappy polling firm.  

SUSA is NOT a crappy polling firm.  I believe them even though they show Obama losing PA by 18.

So, what the hell is your comment supposed to mean?

by bawbie 2008-04-08 01:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

Obama is at ~41% in the RCP poll of polls for PA.  This number is generally relevant when you are the "challenger" in a race.  Look at the Ohio RCP poll of poll average before the election.  It was 44% for Obama, +6 Clinton.  He finished at 44.1%, but lost by 10%.

I would venture that he loses by 15 or so if his RCP average does not move above 42%

by reggie44pride 2008-04-08 07:01AM | 0 recs
there is always more to learn

thanks, that is another bit of information I did not know about polling.  Can you explain in more detail?

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 07:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

You are pointing to an OLD poll.  CNN conducted from 3/26-3/30.

The new SUSA poll is from 4/4-4/7 I believe, and was conducted for three stations.

All the others "which deviates wildly" are not showing any current polling; i.e. polling that ended on Monday.

by TxDem08 2008-04-08 08:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic race tightening in Pennsylvania

Two news polls are up in a diary. They further indicate this one is an aberration.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 09:03AM | 0 recs
Good motivation to call PA for HRC!

Thank you for posting this. We need to call PA voters!

by catfish1 2008-04-08 06:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

dont let the obama supporters bamboozle you! THIS IS NOT OVER.

Make calls in PA today. a 10-15 point win in Pa will be game changing.

by zane 2008-04-08 06:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Actually a 10-15 point is below what was predicted only quite recently.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-08 07:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll

SUSA has been the most accurate this cycle.

For example:

While most outfits were showing a loss or a tight race for Clinton in California, SUSA was consistently predicting a comfortable win for Clinton.

California polls:  Link

While other outfits were showing a tight race or a loss for Clinton in Massachusetts, SUSA was consistently predicting a double digit win for Clinton.

Massachusetts polls:  Link

by Hurdy Gurdy 2008-04-08 06:55AM | 0 recs
hmmmnnn... Interesting

considering that Obama's commercials have been running non stop here there is lots of speculation to be done on why Obama is losing ground according to this poll.

Is it the commercials?  Are men seeing something they do not like? Is he seeming less authentic now that they see him up close?

I know that a lot of what he says in his commercials is baloney. He certainly does take money from lobbyists,  and they will in fact have a place in his white house.  But the average voter might be fooled. So it's not that.. what is it that men are not liking when they see Obama on the TV every 10 minutes?

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 06:55AM | 0 recs
Re: hmmmnnn... Interesting

If you are going to accuse him of taking money from federal lobbyists, which isn't true, you'd better provide proof to back it up.

by bawbie 2008-04-08 07:01AM | 0 recs
by cjbardy 2008-04-08 08:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Here you go... All smoke and mirrors

Those are all very good reads.

But none of them accuse, much less prove, Obama of breaking his promise and taking money from registered federal lobbyists.

by bawbie 2008-04-08 08:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Here you go... All smoke and mirrors

You miss the point.  He still gets their support and money, but through side doors.

by cjbardy 2008-04-08 08:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Here you go... All smoke and mirrors

You miss the point.  He still gets their support and money, but through side doors.  If it walks like a duck....

by cjbardy 2008-04-08 08:30AM | 0 recs
Re: hmmmnnn... Interesting

Yea, there were murmurs about his commercials.

For example, some pundits did not like the following commercial:

Link

by Hurdy Gurdy 2008-04-08 07:03AM | 0 recs
Re: hmmmnnn... Interesting

I went to Obama HQ in Scranton and asked for signs etc.. for some friends who are supporting him.  They didn't have any lawn sighs/  However they gave me some stickers with that image.
As a work of art it is great. As a campaign poster it works in some places better than others. It would not be my choice.

But the funniest part of the article is down farther were Olbermann tries to smear Rendell.  I loved the response from the Rendell guy...rolf, "there are better reasons than that to think he is the worst person in the world".  That cracked my up and it probably cracked Rendell up too.
Olbermann is making such an ass of himself.

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 07:38AM | 0 recs
Re: hmmmnnn... Interesting

Obama does best when there is 1-2 weeks between primaries. Usually, when a campaign begins in a state, Obama surges. However, at some point, Clinton bounces back. I believe I heard Cokie Roberts explain it by saying that people vote for Obama because they fall in love with him. But at some point, the initial fascination stage ends and people begin to get cold feet. So Obama tends to to best when primaries are bunched up together, and not as well when there is a long time between primaries.

Part of the problem Obama faces is that people aren't quite sure whether he has strong convictions or not. He's a lot like Jimmy Carter was in 1976. At first, being a novelty and fresh face, Carter blew away the rest of the field. But as time went on, Carter's support fell. His big lead against Ford melted away until he was just barely able to defeat him on election day. That's the question for Obama, will the fascination with his novelty hold just long enough for him to win on election day.

by Zzyzzy 2008-04-08 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

According to other polls some women don't like what they see coming from Clinton.  I wonder if its her continuing misstatements, or the anti-union rhetoric coming from one of her top advisor's?

by Bobby Obama 2008-04-08 06:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Anti union statements? Only Obama has made anti union statements, calling them "special interests."

by owl06 2008-04-08 07:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by
well, that's a truth. however, it's the kind of special interests liberals tend to favor.
by alex100 2008-04-08 08:56AM | 0 recs
No.

Obama said that Clinton takes money from special interests.

Clinton takes money from a variety of sources, including unions, lobbyists and private individuals (such as yourself, if you've donated).

That does NOT mean he's equating unions with special interests (even though you could argue that technically, they are).

By that logic, he called every small donor a "special interest".  I'm hoping you weren't aware of his original quote, and that you're not simply a dishonest hack.

by corph 2008-04-08 09:59AM | 0 recs
Re: No.

Obama called the unions "special interest" when the unions were supporting Edwards.  Now that he has the Teamsters backing him up, so they are no longer "special interest".

Flip flop.

by stefystef 2008-04-08 11:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Union leaders tend to break for Clinton.

by jrsygrl 2008-04-08 05:56PM | 0 recs
I'd like to see more polling confirm this

However, SUSA's reputation has been excellent this election season. If this poll is accurate, I imagine it's a result of things returning to their normal state now that Tusla is not 24/7.

by Mayor McCheese 2008-04-08 07:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

I am a Clinton supporter here in PA!!! It is nice to see this, but I think that is too large a lead. I thing her lead is between 8-10 rather than 15-20.

Maybe I am wrong, hope so! But, I am a realist. I don't think she is going to win by 15 or better.

by American1989 2008-04-08 07:00AM | 0 recs
Re:

I have to think that this is an outlier.  It goes against common sense, which is never a good thing.

by rfahey22 2008-04-08 07:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

"Liberal Democrats are moving toward her and conservatives toward him?"

Could that be a Casey thing?

by reggie44pride 2008-04-08 07:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Most likely, since they're in the general area of Casey influence. Also, isn't that where the recent Obama bus trip stopped?

by Susie from Philly 2008-04-08 10:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Troll rating for speculating that Casey could be helping Obama with conservative Democrats, but hurting him among more liberal ones?

Whatever Kobi.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-08 12:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Well, she has been campaigning like a conservative.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 07:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Has she said that Ted Kennedy is old and needs to step aside, called unions special interests, tipped off the Canadian embassy that anti-NAFTA statements made by her were merely "campaign stuff?" No.... that are the first term Senator from Illinois.

by owl06 2008-04-08 07:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Another customer at fantasy island.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 07:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Would you like to see the video of Obama insulting Kennedy or the newspaper articles of him calling unions special interests and the CBC coverage of his campaign tipping off Canadian officials? The kool aid must be strong today.

by owl06 2008-04-08 07:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Yes I would.

But I won't hold my breath.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 07:50AM | 0 recs
is that all you've got?

speaking as a life long liberal, you are useless to the liberal cause.  Get a grip and try to be useful.

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 07:44AM | 0 recs
Re: is that all you've got?

Those are some credentials you've got there. But my life isn't over yet. I've only been a liberal for 40 years.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 07:48AM | 0 recs
I am not going to waste my time

arguing credentials.  You don't seem capable of understand what being a liberal really is.  

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 07:57AM | 0 recs
Re: I am not going to waste my time

If I ever need to know what a liberal is I'll look in the dictionary under your name.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 08:00AM | 0 recs
Re: I am not going to waste my time
c'mon now. stop these games.
by alex100 2008-04-08 08:47AM | 0 recs
Re: is that all you've got?
hmmm. I'm only a partial life liberal. only 14 years under this "hood".
by alex100 2008-04-08 08:46AM | 0 recs
Re: is that all you've got?

Just showing that claiming who is or isn't liberal is pretty foolish.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 09:05AM | 0 recs
Re: is that all you've got?
forgive my snarky comment. I agree with you. I don't do well when people start measuring "liberalism".
by alex100 2008-04-08 09:52AM | 0 recs
Re: is that all you've got?

No liberal is useless, however not all Democrats are liberal. Compared to Republicans anything left of center is liberal but many Democrats are moderate to conservative democrats. I tend to be far left and am a minority in talking with other democrats. I do find myself in the parsing of democrats a far left leaning democrat socially but a more moderate to conservate fiscally. I guess I would be a Bill Clinton Democrat.

I believe in the democratic principal that we are only as strong as our weakest link over the 'only the strong will survive' republican who seems more than willing IMO to cull out the poor, old,sick and 'drains' on society rather than lift them up.

by Justwords 2008-04-08 11:29AM | 0 recs
geez
no she hasn't. does it even matter to you if anything you say is accurate or is scoring points the only thing that matters?
You seem to have the dkos ailment of thinking that making any wild eyed accusation about Clinton is a winning argument.
by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 07:42AM | 0 recs
Re: geez

Karl Rove isn't a conservative?

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-08 07:51AM | 0 recs
Re: geez
please, don't make me brush up on logical fallacies from philosophicalsociety.com. your posts are a bit out of control.
by alex100 2008-04-08 08:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

S-USA's probably the most reliable, but this really seems to be an outlier. But that's fine...we all know how the expectation game works. If a poll shows her up by 18 and she wins by 10, then the media will start cluck-clucking about how Obama "closed."

(Not that we want it going the other way...if polls show Obama down 5 and he loses by 10, as I'd expect, then the media will start cluck-clucking about how Obama "failed to close.")

In other words, polls are fun, but they come with a bunch of annoying expectations. We'll see what happens, but I wouldn't be particularly worried about the outcome if I were a Clinton supporter.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner 2008-04-08 07:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

The expectations game is important early in a primary season because it gives a losing candidate a media narrative to claim momentum and move on to somewhere more friendly where that candidate can make up ground.  If you keep playing this game over and over while losing over and over, at some point, you have to start actually making up ground in the race or you're still going to lose.  For Hillary, coming back for a slim win and even delegate split in NH was big news.  Coming back to reclaim half of her original advantage in CA & OH was good news for her.  However, she is still WAY behind in delegates, you know, the things that actually nominate a candidate, and she really nees a blowout to make up some of that disadvantage, not another 10 point win that was 25 points at the start, then closed to 5, then broke slightly for her at the very end.  It's a good media narrative, but it's not going to win her the nomination, and time is running out for her to make up real ground and not just survive on media narrative.

by NJIndependent 2008-04-08 07:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

And what's beyond the expectations game is the fact that, if Obama loses by, say, 10% or more, and does so because the Reagan Democrats overwhelmingly won't vote for him, then there's a very deep problem in his electability in the general. That would be a decisive fact and failure that goes well beyond any attempt at spin. Given that Obama has the clear lead, Democrats who had any disposition to find him attractive should be rallying around him, and would be refusing to do so.

Reagan Democrats are, and have been, the key to victory in Presidential elections since, well, Reagan at least, and if a candidate can't win them over, then he can't win the major swing states that decide Presidential elections: MI, FL, OH, and PA. The only potential new swing state that Obama might really bring to the table, to compensate for his very likely loss of all four swing states, is CO, in my opinion. And CO is very small potatoes compared to any of the major 4 swing states (9 electoral votes compared to 17 for MI, the smallest of the 4 majors).

The unfortunate truth is that Obama's likelihood of winning the nomination is relatively high, but his likelihood of being able to win the general is relatively quite low. Hillary's probabilities are the opposite: relatively low to win the nomination, but relatively high to win the general (certainly as compared to Obama, given his vulnerabilities).

Multiply the probabilities out in both cases and it's not good news for the Democrats.

by frankly0 2008-04-08 07:52AM | 0 recs
Your assertions about

winning the nomination vs. winning the general aren't borne out by any polling data whatsoever. If anything, Obama does just as well to slightly better than Clinton vs. McCain in general matchup polling. The map is different for him, but his chances of beating McCain are just as good as Hillary's, and if voters instincts are to be believed, his prospects vs. McCain are actually much better than hers:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105904/Dems-R eps-Agree-Obama-Tougher-Opponent-McCain. aspx

by SuperTex 2008-04-08 08:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Your assertions about

You don't get the point.

Obama's problem is not going to be detectable in a national poll, especially this far out. His problem is specifically on a state by state basis, with regard to swing states in particular, and it is based on his inability to appeal to Reagan Democrats, who have controlled the Presidential election for many cycles, and are the key to victory in OH, PA, MI, and FL.

In general, polls mean far, far less than actual votes in elections as far as indicating the real situation of public acceptance of a candidate. Polls are, especially on a state-by-state basis, notoriously unreliable, to begin with. Election results are hard results -- and when complemented with exit polls can get at basic truths. It's only at election time that one sees the true and final decisions that a voter makes -- which may be quite different, often, from their vague sentiments on a day a pollster might call weeks or months in advance.

by frankly0 2008-04-08 08:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Your assertions about

Wait, so you suggest that Obama's likely to lose the general election because "Reagan Democrats" won't vote for him, and the only state he gets that Clinton doesn't is Colorado.

Someone disputes you by linking to a poll that says otherwise. (There's also the comprehensive S-USA poll from March that showed both Obama AND Clinton beating McCain soundly.)

You then say polls don't matter and are unreliable. So if we can't disprove your point with data, are we left with taking your word?

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner 2008-04-08 08:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Your assertions about

What I am saying is simple: the only reliable data we can get is to look at the election results come the PA primary, and to look at the exit polls based on those results. That will give hard, believable data about who Obama appeals to and who he doesn't.

I've got no crystal ball, and it could certainly turn out that he'll do quite well on that account -- I just very much doubt it.

by frankly0 2008-04-08 09:36AM | 0 recs
The only reliable data

is what comes out of a state she is poised to win due to demographics that favor her? That's convenient, but completely ridiculous and obtuse imo.

by SuperTex 2008-04-08 11:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

However, as a Clinton supporter, a healthy amount of worry is what makes us keep calling voters and campaigning!  So worry everyone, worry!

Despite that reminder to Clinton supporters, including me, its nice to see this on on the heels of some of the more dire polls I have seen the past few days.

by cjbardy 2008-04-08 07:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

This is great.  Anyone who knows anything about polling knows SUSA gets it right when others don't.

If Hillary has a blowout, especially when the Obama campaign has been raising expectations, it could be enough to completely turn the tide heading into this summer.

by hornplayer 2008-04-08 07:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Great news for Hillary.

by nikkid 2008-04-08 07:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

What is the actual Pcts in this poll?  Is it like 50-32 or is it more like 60-42?

by Bobby Obama 2008-04-08 07:12AM | 0 recs
What I would give to see the candidate's internals

right now.  I think that the candidates internals are calling it a close election right now because Governor Rendell is saying Senator Clinton will win by 5-10% and Senator Obama says she will win by 20%.  With the average of the polls saying that it'll be a closer race and the above expectation spinning going on right now leads me to believe that SUSA is an outlier no matter how much I'd love to believe it.

by lisadawn82 2008-04-08 07:25AM | 0 recs
See Hill run!

Watch Hill kick Jack's butt!

by linc 2008-04-08 07:27AM | 0 recs
I want cross tabs...

linky?

by Student Guy 2008-04-08 07:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads

There are no dates on this poll.  The article does not say when the poll was completed.  Do you know the dates of when this poll was completed?

by Spanky 2008-04-08 07:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads

The poll came out today, so it must be recent. It is on the front page of their web site now:

http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.a spx

by bluestatedude 2008-04-08 10:01AM | 0 recs
Don't forget to push this
Join The Hillary Clinton Fundraiser - "My Pennsylvania"
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/4/7/23355 3/4249

by kevin22262 2008-04-08 07:34AM | 0 recs
Giving you mojo

nt.

by Student Guy 2008-04-08 07:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton

Hillary had a strong lead, Obama cut into that lead by being the first to run ads in PA and then with all the negative publicity over the Bosnia thing.  Now Hillary is starting to advertise, Bosnia is over, so it's no wonder she's rebounded.  If Hillary can turn the lastest health care flap to her advantage, she will be strong on election day in PA.

by DaveOinSF 2008-04-08 07:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton

When was this poll done?  What dates?

by Spanky 2008-04-08 07:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton

Data Collected: 04/05/2008 - 04/07/2008

by DaveOinSF 2008-04-08 09:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking:

HRC is going to win by 15% in PA.  BO just doesnt have much of a base there.  All you need to look at is how HRC beats McCain there while BO is either tied or losing.  

david

by giusd 2008-04-08 07:38AM | 0 recs
super delegates take note

if Obama can not win PA he can not win the nation.

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 07:50AM | 0 recs
Re: super delegates take note

This is not historically accurate. Candidates who don't win particular states do in fact carry them for the general election.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-08 08:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

As a Obama supporter I must admit this a very good poll for Sen. Clinton.  To have taken the bumps and bruises she has this week to poll up 18 is excellent for her.  

by nextgen 2008-04-08 07:48AM | 0 recs
her ability to remain standing

is something to admire even if you wish it were not so.

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2008-04-08 07:52AM | 0 recs
Re: her ability to remain standing

Yeah. That plow ahead no matter what attitude is definitely something I'm not used to seeing in a President.

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-08 08:35AM | 0 recs
Re: her ability to remain standing

Oh good lord it is called perseverance & that is a GOOD thing.  She has earned the right to campaign for this nomination & the implied analogy to W is completely off base.

by jrsygrl 2008-04-08 05:59PM | 0 recs
Re: her ability to remain standing

Nah. Her campaigns inflexibility, loyalty above all attitude, and failure to understand the facts on the ground makes it an apt comparison.

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-09 04:23PM | 0 recs
Re: her ability to remain standing

Well I guess if you say so, it must be so...

Of course I think your desire to just have Obama be the nominee is clouding your perception of reality-

by jrsygrl 2008-04-10 07:12AM | 0 recs
Re: her ability to remain standing

Mark Penn is still there right?

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-10 08:15AM | 0 recs
Re: her ability to remain standing

I really can't believe how her own party is treating her.  There has been absolutely nothing unethical about her campaign & I will stand behind my convictions regardless of who is with me.  I will not allow a good person who has done so much for this country be besmirched.

by jrsygrl 2008-04-10 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: her ability to remain standing

I assume that was intentionally non-responsive.

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-10 11:18AM | 0 recs
Re: her ability to remain standing

It was as equally responsive as your prior comment...

by jrsygrl 2008-04-11 07:25AM | 0 recs
Re: her ability to remain standing

Actually my comment pointed out multiple flaws at one time.

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-11 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

I love it, the 1 poll that disagrees with all other polls and trends (isnt that the definition of outlier?)

is correct, and ALL the other polls are wrong,

or tl;dr Hillary supporter version.

only this poll matters because we like what it says, the rest don't matter

seriously at this point its getting quite sad, EVERYTHING only matters when you guys like what it says, and when you don't you dismiss it until you like it again.

lol I just hope SUSA doesn't narrow in the next poll otherwise they won't matter again

by TruthMatters 2008-04-08 07:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

stop being so intellectually dishonest

the reason why this poll is being touted is because SUSA has been remarkably reliable this primary season.

by njsketch 2008-04-08 08:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

It hasn't been right everywhere.

BTW, Rasmussen's PA poll today has it +5 Clinton.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-08 08:20AM | 0 recs
Most recent roundup
C+18 SUSA (4/5-7?)
C+10 Muhlenberg (3/27-4/2)
C+8 SV (3/28-30)
C+6 Quin (4/3-6)
C+5 Ras (4/7)
C+2 IA (4/2)
Even ARG (4/5-6)
O+2 PPP (3/31-4/1)
by Rorgg 2008-04-08 08:20AM | 0 recs
Rasmussen just out...

It has Clinton 48% Obama 43%  Rasmussen Poll

More importantly, it says that "[f]ollowing a month of declining poll numbers for Senator Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, the race has stabilized for the moment."

Their poll shows stabilization, SUSA is showing the upward tick.

by cjbardy 2008-04-08 08:23AM | 0 recs
SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by 18!

huge news, despite being outspent, she reversed all propaganda and waves. SUSA is the best pollster so far and PA will affect all other states!

by engels 2008-04-08 08:31AM | 0 recs
Re: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by 18!

Exactly why this particular result is untrustworthy - no news over the past week has been good for her.  I don't mean to rain on people's parade here, but common sense dictates that this result is an outlier.

by rfahey22 2008-04-08 08:33AM | 0 recs
Re: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by 18!

i trust SUSA more than you, sorry rfahey22.

by engels 2008-04-08 08:48AM | 0 recs
Re: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by 18!

I don't give a crap if you trust me or not, but thanks for the info.

by rfahey22 2008-04-08 08:54AM | 0 recs
Re: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by 18!

Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. Maybe it's the first poll showing a new trend. We need more data to confirm this or refute it. I doubt that she's bounced up to an 18 point lead myself, but it wouldn't surprise me to see polls moving back toward her a bit now that some of the hubub over the Tuzla incident has faded a bit.

by Mayor McCheese 2008-04-08 02:32PM | 0 recs
She'll win by 15-20 but it won't change the math

that's why she's telling delegates pledged to Obama to vote for her anyway.

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-08 08:33AM | 0 recs
Re: She'll win by 15-20 but it won't change the ma

But pledged delegates have been switching to Obama in states were Obama won.

So have super delegates.  Maybe pledged delegates have been asking about switching on either side.  I don't know if this poll is any good (I hope it is), but it reflects better on what I know about the people of PA.  I didn't see people running to Obama in droves like some polls were saying.

Hillary should stay until the end of primary season.  The will of the people is to count every vote, including Michigan and Florida.

GO HILL!!!  GONNA FLY NOW!

by stefystef 2008-04-08 11:39AM | 0 recs
Re: She'll win by 15-20 but it won't change the ma

Pledged delegates have been switching?

Supers can do whatever they want.

MI & FL won't help her. Too bad they violated the rules and screwed their people. Now they're stuck with some sort of split.

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-08 12:02PM | 0 recs
Please Update

Here's the poll finally released on the SUSA website.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rtEmail.aspx?g=c79e5bab-a424-49f6-86d6-5 0c61cf729b7

by DaveOinSF 2008-04-08 09:38AM | 0 recs
I'll Post it HERE too!

Folks,

Cherry-picking individual polls is a waste of time.  

Week by week, the partisans for each candidate select the most favorable polls while dismissing the least favorable ones...sometimes reversing the praise/criticisms of the prior week!

I am sick to dang death of this stuff, and have been even while Obama is gaining momentum.  I no longer care about primary polling, and am now more concerend with the GE.  I suggest we ALL adopt that mindset.

by a gunslinger 2008-04-08 09:42AM | 0 recs
Re: polling

there should be 3-4 more polls out later this week, so we can look at them in composite, to see if any others reflect this return momentum for Clinton, or if SUSA is actually an outlier this week.

by megaplayboy 2008-04-08 09:49AM | 0 recs
More internals

She leads overall 56-38

In the last three SUSA PA polls, she garners the same percentage of women and white voters, which solidifies her large lead.

Among 79% of voters who have definitely made up there mind, Clinton leads 57-40.

by njsketch 2008-04-08 09:53AM | 0 recs
Ah well. SUSA has been

amazing this cycle.  I guess if he can't make up huge ground in two weeks, this thing will go on to NC and IN at least.

I just wish he could put her away once and for all.

by corph 2008-04-08 10:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Ah well. SUSA has been

I hate to say it, but she's going to stay in it to the convention.  Obama probably won't be able to "put her away" any more than he already has.  I mean, we all know what Hillary has to do to overcome his pledged delegate lead (and that it is almost unfathomably difficult), and yet, she stays in.

I do think she has every right to, and even though I'm worried about McCain getting a free ride til the general, perhaps there is something to the idea that she's toughening him up rather than tenderizing him...I don't really know.

All she can really hope for at this point is that Obama has one of those live boy/dead girl incidents (a slight exaggeration) resulting in a flood of super delegates her way and to make sure that she sticks around long enough to be in position if that happens.  Absent that, I just can't imagine what would happen to the party if enough super delegates go against the popular vote and the pledged delegate count based solely on what's been revealed thus far (the Wright fiasco obviously included).

by minnesotaryan 2008-04-08 10:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Question

You forgot Rush.

by dogooder 2008-04-08 10:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll

Will see if this makes a trend. In the past, in states Clinton wins, she initially has a big lead. When the campaigning begins, Obama surges, but when election day gets close, the surge stops and Clinton begins to pull away. I think this will happen in Pennslyvania, too.

According to some news outlets, Clinton's hospital horror story may be fundamentally true afterall. The alleged victim has come to Clinton's side.

by Zzyzzy 2008-04-08 11:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Excellent news. SUSA has been almost dead on with all the big primaries this year, and it defintly shows that Hill has stemmed the tide with about two weeks to go. Go GO Hillary!

by zcflint05 2008-04-08 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

I think SurveyUSA has been quite accurate for a couple of reasons.  One is its large sample sizes.  Another is its automated system, in which the respondent replies to an automated voice rather than to a real human being.  Perhaps this makes it less likely that people will try to please the person they are talking to.

One possible interpretation of this is that Hillary had a big lead early, and that the publicity related to Tuzla helped cut into that lead, but as that fades into the background she is picking up again.

Personally, I believe this is an outlier.  However, even if off by 5-8 points, it's still a great poll for Hillary.  It makes me much more confident that she can win PA by 10+ points.

by markjay 2008-04-08 12:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

A 10 point win is not enough to make any dent in delegates or votes.  She needs at least a 25 point win or she might have to concede.  She is primed for a huge loss in North Carolina that will more than offset a 10 point win in PA.  

by reggie44pride 2008-04-08 12:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

LOL How many times do you Obama people move the goalposts every week? Hillary won't win PA by 25, 15  or 10 sounds about right, and Obama won't win NC by more than 10. For all the "massive lead" polls in NC there's also been ones where Hillary's been tied or down 5-7 points, so I'm not too concerned about it.

by zcflint05 2008-04-08 01:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

I am afraid that Clinton is going to lose NC by about 2x what she wins PA by.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-08 03:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Just like how she was going to lose Ohio, California , and Texas, right pallo? She's not going to win NC but she will not lose by more than 10--take a look at the cross tabs, Obama still can't get the white population.

by zcflint05 2008-04-09 03:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Question

Like Rush & Scaife?

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-08 12:05PM | 0 recs
Thank you Zane!

I've been such a grumpy bitch lately, my family thanks you too!

by blobert 2008-04-08 12:46PM | 0 recs
Watch what happens in the NEXT poll

You know the one... the one that's gonna be taken AFTER the Mark Penn Colombia story broke? AFTER it became obvious that Penn is NOT leaving the campaign? AFTER word came out that Bill Clinton has worked for a trade agreement with Colombia? AFTER the Teamsters began their state-wide anti-Colombia campaign?

C'mon people. Hillary has already lost this race. By her own campaign's admission awhile back, they needed an absolute blowout in PA (20 points or so) to even stay on life-support. But now it's obvious that, even if she wins, it'll be by maybe 5 points. Don't you all understand that by the time Hillary ends this campaign, her political future -- even as a US Senator -- will be very much in doubt.

by ratmach 2008-04-08 01:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Watch what happens in the NEXT poll
You know the "Hillary-Drop-OUt" schtick is not working.
Time to give THAT up... it's getting tired.
by stefystef 2008-04-08 02:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Watch what happens in the NEXT poll

"her political future -- even as a US Senator -- will be very much in doubt"

That's a bit ridiculous, don't you think?  I am no huge fan of either NY senator, but that's just crazy Obama/freeper talk.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-08 03:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Watch what happens in the NEXT poll

I'm going to donate more money to Hillary...starting...1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 and NOW GO and Donate!!!

by Check077 2008-04-08 06:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Makes My Day!

Go Hillary Go!

by Tennessean 2008-04-08 01:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Here is an interesting analysis from a Republican blog. Yes, you heard me...

http://race42008.com/2008/04/07/a-final- point-on-obama-and-wysiwyg/

by RJEvans 2008-04-08 01:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll

She leads by 18 points? OMG! She must drop out immediately! Doesn't she know she's a total loser?

(Psst--I hear she'd win Michigan and Florida too-- except that Obama won't let those votes count because then he'd lose...)

Man, that big win in Pennsylavania's gonna add to the completely irrelevant popular vote total, which of course means nothing because who cares about the will of the people?

Andrea Mitchell told me Hillary was finished so it must be so.

by cc 2008-04-08 02:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll

Last time I checked, the sun was just rising!

by HillaryKnight08 2008-04-08 02:59PM | 0 recs
Cooked Goose with Sweet and Sour Sauce
Charlie Cook thinks she's toast too. But what does he know?

At this point in time, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 95-percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination. The window for New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to win enough pledged delegates to persuade superdelegates to vote for her is pretty much closed.

She can't win the remaining contests by sufficient margins to appreciably close the gap at this point, and superdelegates are breaking more toward Obama than Clinton. Short of a Rev. Jeremiah Wright-level embarrassment visiting Obama each week for four or five consecutive weeks, this thing is over.

by jwolf 2008-04-08 03:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Yes! Hillary will soar to the white house!

by HillaryKnight08 2008-04-08 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: SurveyUSA PA poll, Clinton leads by

Just wait and see.

by HillaryKnight08 2008-04-08 02:57PM | 0 recs

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