When Polls are wrong

I am both hoping for a miracle, and doing research at the same time.

Does anyone have links to information about the times when all the polls were wrong.

The sites I've found only show 2002 Perdue race in Georgia where some allege fraud, and the so-called Bradley effect for black candidates.

It's hard for me to believe that there aren't numerous cases where all the polls say one thing, and another candidate wins.

Tags: Candidates, Election, poll (all tags)

Comments

14 Comments

ALL polls are basically wrong!

They are nothing more than name recognition,  the only poll that is right is the vote.

by Its Like Herding Cats 2008-01-07 08:37AM | 0 recs
Re: When Polls are wrong

God, you are sad.

by Louverture 2008-01-07 08:38AM | 0 recs
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by MollieBradford 2008-01-07 08:45AM | 0 recs
don't worry so much

about Clinton's possible loss in NH.  That race is far from over for her even if that happens.
 NH came to quick upon IA and something has to be done, the IA caucus is too easy to manipulate and then the rest of is who don't vote in the first month get shafted.  But it is too late to worry about that this year.

Maybe independents will all go vote for McCain, it could happen.  But short of that or someone coming up with some damning video of Obama doing something horrible, he will probably win there tomorrow and Clinton will probably come in second.

Edwards is done though he will not admit it and will hang in bashing Clinton for spite. That's the way it is probably going to go.

by MollieBradford 2008-01-07 08:40AM | 0 recs
the race is far from over

is what I meant to say.

by MollieBradford 2008-01-07 08:41AM | 0 recs
I suggest you chill

You are desperate, you are confused, you are posting bilge and dreck.  

I suggest you sit down and eat some chocolate. Dark, preferably, and have some tea.  

Events will play out, and you cannot affect them.  Gain detachment.   This too shall pass.  

Read "Deteriorata".  Listen to the Kinks.  Read Jack Vance.  

Just stop posting. It's getting embarrassing.

by dataguy 2008-01-07 08:43AM | 0 recs
Re: I suggest you chill

I agree Dataguy, this dude is more desperate than the Clinton Campaign. " Get with it" Obama is winning tomorrow and there's nothing you can do.

by Jr1886 2008-01-07 09:22AM | 0 recs
I'm wondering why

franklin pierce
has it 35 34

suffolk has it

34 31

and the rest show blowout wins for Obama.

by yellowdem1129 2008-01-07 08:43AM | 0 recs
Re: I'm wondering why

more than likely tighter "likely voter" screens.  If Obama expands the universe of voters like he did in IA, then its a blowout.  If he doesn't, then it's close and Hillary can pull it out.

Again, like every campaign in the Democratic world, its all about turnout.

by Jim Engler 2008-01-07 08:46AM | 0 recs
And for the polls, take a survey research course

The polls are often right, but there are plenty of reasons for them to be wrong. Look for the consensus.

Right now, the consensus is that BO > HC by 4 pt.

by dataguy 2008-01-07 08:44AM | 0 recs
If I'm corect

no one is forcing you to click and read.

by yellowdem1129 2008-01-07 08:44AM | 0 recs
1996

Only Zogby got it right.  He had it at 9 points.

I'm looking for the link. Everyone else had double digits, some over 20.

that launced him into the MSM.  Since then he has made some whoppers.

by yellowdem1129 2008-01-07 08:46AM | 0 recs
Re: 1996

Zogby also said it's likely gonna be a double digit tomorrow. Don't embarrass yourself like Mark Penn with the desperate memo asking "where's the bounce" but to only get embarrass the next day

by Jr1886 2008-01-07 09:25AM | 0 recs
Re: When Polls are wrong

WOW. You are hardcore, I respect you for that. Seriously, she is done in NH. I would be willing to bet that even if Obama made some major mistake tonite that he would still win comfortably.

by highgrade 2008-01-07 09:10AM | 0 recs

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