Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argument

While there has been a great deal of talk concerning the 'baggage' of HRC, I would contend that such baggage - while real - will have virtually no effect on the GE.  If Dick Cheney and Dan Quayle proved anything, they proved that VP's cannot LOSE elections.  I don't think Cheney brought ANYTHING but negatives for GWB and yet he still triumphed.  Repubs don't rally around a 'VP candidate'...so I really don't think HRC's going to rally the Repub troops as a VP.

So, what is HRC's best asset?  We know about her strengths with Latino, Catholic and Appalachian blue-collar voters, but here's the key for me:

HRC actually can pull in SINGLE women who are, by far, the most difficult group to get to the polls.  More after the flip.

One thing we know is this: if single women voters or potential voters came out en masse, Democrats would win quite a few more elections.  That said, HRC's big weakness, imo, was/is her lack of ground game.  I say this because many of HRC supporters simply don't have the time and the argument could be made that HRC's bad 'caucus state' showing is evidence of a poor ground game.

Thus, if you combine BO's solid ground game with HRC's appeal to single women voters, we could pull in that extra 1% of the electorate that could really make a difference.  

I think that HRC's appeal to many 'casual' voters (i.e. the kind that don't pay too much attention to politics for whatever reason and there are PLENTY of good reasons why) who may not normally vote is actually pretty strong and well offsets her potential to bring anti-HRC casual voters to the polls in the GE.

Obviously, it would be great for party unity, but I think HRC brings more to the plate than just unity.

As far as BO's 'change' meme, I think that that meme is fine and that HRC as VP helps that change meme more than it hurts it.  Let's put it this way:

BO says we need change.  Ok, fine.  So, what says 'change' more than a historic black male/white female ticket?  Not much.

I don't think HRC as VP dilutes the change meme at all and, in my opinion, actually strengthens it.

Tags: ground game, new voter registration (all tags)

Comments

33 Comments

I agree with you, and so do a majority of Dems

"In the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update (based on June 6-8 data), 53% of Democrats say Obama should pick his former nomination rival for vice president, while 36% say he should choose someone else."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107764/Gallup -Daily-Obama-Takes-Lead-Over-McCain-48-4 2.aspx

"A newly released CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that if Obama does not select Clinton as his running mate, 22 percent of her supporters would stay home this fall..

It does indicate that unmotivated Clinton supporters may be a bigger risk to Obama than defections from the Clinton camp to McCain."

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/09/c linton.supporters/index.html

by phoenixdreamz 2008-06-09 02:57PM | 0 recs
by phoenixdreamz 2008-06-09 03:04PM | 0 recs
Is it October already?

Democrats will vote for the Democratic ticket, as will independents and disaffected Republicans. No matter who is on the ticket, Obama puts more states into play than the Republicans have ever had to fight in.

Today's polls are a snapshot of the feelings of Clinton voters on the weekend of her concession. That'll change once Obama dominates the narrative and keeps McCain on the ropes through the summer.

by BobzCat 2008-06-09 08:12PM | 0 recs
I just want one day

where don't talk about the VP slot.  Just one.  

This whole election is SO much more (to me) than which personality people feel strongly about is in the White House.

Why do we keep on reifying and implicitly justifying these people who would throw our country down the drain if we don't pick or do pick Hillary Clinton?  It just seems to me to be a colossal waste of effort.

by Deadalus 2008-06-09 03:01PM | 0 recs
Bingo.

If half of the party is foolish enough to assist in the election of a third term of GWB, it just means the party was composed of 50% GOP-in-denial from the getgo.

by Firewall 2008-06-09 03:07PM | 0 recs
No

its just half the party that doesn't buy what Obama is selling.  If that's the case, we are sca rewed.

by linc 2008-06-09 03:26PM | 0 recs
Re: No

Keep telling yourself that. The rest of us are working toward winning in November. You're welcome to join us.

by BobzCat 2008-06-09 08:14PM | 0 recs
Oh get over yourself

its called reality, pal.  I don't intimate that I am any less supportive of the democratic ticket than you are.  Good lord.  Someone states a fact and you do that 'well, you can join us if you want to, but we don't really need you' bs.  When will it get old

by linc 2008-06-11 05:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

the problem is, at first you say no one votes for the VP, so her baggage doesn't matter. Then you talk about all the latinos and catholics who will vote for the VP. So which is it?

I think Hillary's problem is this: She has a special ability to enrage republicans, and can organize them in a way no one else can. We want them to stay apathetic. At the same time, all the Latinos and catholics, and everyone else for that matter, will vote for the top of the ticket, so i question how much help she really is. To me, it's all downside with little upside.

by Metrobot 2008-06-09 03:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

She has a special ability to enrage republicans

EXACTLY. People forget that because they were actively trying to drive up her numbers during the primary.

by USArmyParatrooper 2008-06-09 03:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

You forget one MAJOR aspect:

She's VP.  And, as VP she does NOT enrage/motivate people to go to the polls and vote against her.  Like I said, Cheney pretty much proved that a VP cannot possible lose you an election.  They can help, but they can't really hurt that much.

So, in my opinion, all of her 'downsides' are WAY overblown since she's the VP.  But, even a tiny sliver of her upsides help more than the downside she could/would bring.

by yankeeinmemphis 2008-06-09 03:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

She's VP.  And, as VP she does NOT enrage/motivate people to go to the polls and vote against her.  Like I said, Cheney pretty much proved that a VP cannot possible lose you an election.  They can help, but they can't really hurt that much.

You might be right. I could live with it if it ends up being her. I just have a theory that Hillary is a cultural icon who has special powers that will extend way beyond the VP's traditional impact. And a lot of that impact will be negative, imo.

by Metrobot 2008-06-10 12:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

Don't worry - I am sure the  GOP will work on ensuring Obama is just as every bit rage inducing as Clinton, come November. You see the problem is you seem to think it is the fault of Hillary Clinton that Republicans have been manipulated against her. What you seem to be missing is that the GOP manages to induce a fairly vitriol level of hatred against whoever looks to be on the opposite end of the playing field.  Clinton has been in their target for approx 40 years - she is old news. Obama is fresh meat, however.  Fortunately if Clinton is on the ticket she/her advisers will be able to demonstrate how to best deal with their dirty antics b/c they have dealt with at a higher level for a longer time then just about anyone else.

by jrsygrl 2008-06-09 03:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

I don't blame hillary for it. I am just stating what is, from my point of view, the result of 20 years of RNC pile-on. It's up for grabs whether the repubs can villify Obama like they did hillary. I think it'll be way harder, the fact that he's fresh meat means he can define himself, Hillary is already defined.

I can't back any of that up, though. That's just how I'm seeing it.

p.s. I always thought that the best thing about Hillary winning would have been to stick it to the Hillary haters on the right!

by Metrobot 2008-06-10 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

I think fresh meat is worse in many ways. People who like Hillary aren't going anywhere. Alot of the things that have been said about her (over the past 30+ years actually) are older news. People also bottom line remember how well things were during the Clinton presidency & if those swing voters think their life will return to that state by voting for her, I think in the end they just won't care enough about the peripherals. However, there is a question of what you get with Obama which may make a swing voter say I don't know anything about him & with McCain I think I'll be safe or something ignorant...

Plus we know Clinton knows how to fight the GOP machine - we have no way of knowing if Obama is ready/capable of that.

by jrsygrl 2008-06-19 09:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

Actually HRC is counter to what Barack Obama is talking about when it comes to change. She's been a longtime Washington insider for quite some time.

She's also a fricking lightning rod for the GOP. Don't let the fact that they were courting her fool you. "My enemy's enemy is my friend."

If Obama picks her I'll be accepting because I trust his judgment. But the fact remains he's already pulling away from McCain in the polls.

by USArmyParatrooper 2008-06-09 03:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

Let's compare 2 change meme's:

1.  BO says the same things, but has....Ed Rendell as VP (or Ted Strickland from Ohio).

2.  BO says the same things, but has HRC on the ticket.

What says 'change' to you?  Probably #1.

But, I would argue that the overwhelming majority of GE voters would view #2 as more change than #1.

People who hang out on Mydd and Dkos are very much high information voters.  Three times as many voters vote in the GE than in the primary.  For those voters, I would be willing to bet that scenario 2 represents a greater 'change' meme than scenario 1.

And, again, high information voters do NOT represent the majority of GE voters.

by yankeeinmemphis 2008-06-09 03:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

Just ONE example of change is his recent declaration that the DNC will no longer accept a dime of lobby money or money from PAC's.

Part of the problem is that we have two completely different modes of thinking. I have NO question about Obama's electability. Clinton, on the other hand, fought tirelessly to try to discredit his ability to beat McCain. She had to do something because she needed an overwhelming majority of the pledged and super delegates just to catch up.

So die-hard Clinton supporters latched onto this idea that Obama somehow NEEDS her. He doesn't.

My first choice has always been Wesley Clark (see my diary about it), but if he picks Clinton I will respect it.

by USArmyParatrooper 2008-06-09 03:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

My views couldn't be more opposite of yours. It is b/c I trust HER judgment that I would be more enthusiastic for the ticket if she were on it; since I don't necessarily trust his.  And I find it really funny that people keep calling the person who couldn't have been treated more coldly by their own party the "insider" while the supposed "outsider" was certainly embraced, even when the party could've credibly made things swing the other way.

by jrsygrl 2008-06-09 03:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

And I find it really funny that people keep calling the person who couldn't have been treated more coldly by their own party the "insider" while the supposed "outsider" was certainly embraced, even when the party could've credibly made things swing the other way.

She spent eight years as first lady to a two-term US President who was revered by Democrats.

If they were so against it, how is it she started out ONE HUNDRED delegates ahead (thanks to the Supers) before a single vote was even cast?

It wasn't until much later the Supers started switching and the powers that be started applying pressure. It was for the good of the party, in no small part due to her scorched earth policy when mathematically she had very little chance.

by USArmyParatrooper 2008-06-09 03:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

There was nothing good for the party about this but you keep believing that - the argument is beyond ridiculous.

by jrsygrl 2008-06-09 03:51PM | 0 recs
"Your party" is big money donors

I guess you forgot the entire grassroots aspect of Obama's campaign and the fact that the BIG money donors were the ones that threatened the DNC with withdrawal of funds.

Try again.

by Regenman 2008-06-09 04:46PM | 0 recs
Re: "Your party" is big money donors

Puhleaze you honestly believe that the voters just banded together and overcame the machine???

GMAFB- seriuosly get into the real world. There is NO WAY someone who was on the outside would EVER have a chance in HELL of getting the nomination. If you honestly believe that is how things work - well I hate to break it to you but that isn't reality...

by jrsygrl 2008-06-09 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: "Your party" is big money donors

ALL Presidents were on the inside to some degree just by way of their prior positions, i.e. former Governors or former Senators.

But comparing their backgrounds and considering who started with a 100 point "Super" lead before a vote was ever cast.... who was the bigger Washington insider?

Also, Barack Obama raised more money than anyone else in history, and his average donation size was what, $100 give or take? Yes, the voters banded together and overcame the machine. That's why Obama announced the DNC will no longer take a dime from lobbyists or PAC's.

by USArmyParatrooper 2008-06-09 08:19PM | 0 recs
Re: "Your party" is big money donors

I want to laugh at the naive POV I see being expressed here, knowing that it'll all come out in the wash, but I have to live with the results too :(

by jrsygrl 2008-06-09 08:26PM | 0 recs
Re: "Your party" is big money donors

An ad hominem that is void of any substance whatsoever from jrsygrl?? I'm shocked.

by USArmyParatrooper 2008-06-09 08:44PM | 0 recs
Re: "Your party" is big money donors

Is this some sort of a joke???

by jrsygrl 2008-06-10 07:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

There was nothing good for the party for Hillary Clinton to keep going negative against the likely Democratic winner. There was nothing good for the party to deliberately stir anger and discontent with her base.

Remember, it was Hillary Clinton supporters that created the divide between Dailykos and MYDD.

The DNC saw her scorched earth tactics and they squashed it. But yes, some damage was already done. YOUR anger is a result of those tactics and you can't even see it. Never before has their been such cult following of "Democrats" willing to ditch every single one of their values in the toilet over a candidate.

by USArmyParatrooper 2008-06-09 04:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP argume

In your attempts to psychoanalyze me you have forgotten to turn the mirror inward and take a long hard look at how perception can be manipulated. I have liked Hillary Clinton for YEARS. However, I would have supported OTHER people for the nomination, but <gasp> I evaluated Obama, extensively, had an actual desire to like him but DIDN'T.  Further the lack of recognition re: the misogynistic attitudes that have pervaded this campaign & the acceptance &/or denial that the exist is a whole other layer of garbage that disgusts. Guess what? It isn't Hillary Clinton's fault that people acted like that & that exists.

by jrsygrl 2008-06-09 07:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP

Nice diary but based on most of the comments here and around this site, I'm seeing that the Obama "supporters" were mostly anti-Clinton votes. But hey, we should all come together because we're all Democrats, right? I think the DNC blew this one.

by SophieL 2008-06-09 03:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a great VP

Nice diary but based on most of the comments here and around this site

Examples?

by USArmyParatrooper 2008-06-09 03:30PM | 0 recs
re

Republicans don't like Hillary? And thats a bad thing because???? SCREW THEM!!! Revenge for having Dick Cheney for 8 years! Clinton for Veep!

by rossinatl 2008-06-09 04:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Yet another reason why HRC's a

The more people try to push HRC with such arguments, the more I become convinced she'd be a terrible choice. The arguments of people pushing it seem to treat such a thing if it's a co-presidency of sorts.

Vice-presidency isn't co-presidency.

Show me any time when a Clinton has accepted playing second fiddle to anyone except another Clinton.

Show me they have one tenth the humility that a vice-president needs for the job at hand.

by Aris Katsaris 2008-06-09 04:58PM | 0 recs

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