Keep Fighting! We're On The Cusp of a Landslide.

Cross-posted at Daily Kos and TPM

I believe this election is on the cusp of becoming a landslide for Obama, and I believe that's why the McCain campaign panicked and chose Palin at the last minute without vetting her.

We keep seeing diaries with the latest Gallup, Rasmussen, CBS, etc polling showing a tightening or expanding race. But one thing I have not seen anyone do yet is put this in historical perspective.

Once you do that, you see just how strong Obama is in this election cycle, and why the republicans are so dispirited and downtrodden.

This, more than any other election in my 31 years, is ours to lose. We MUST keep fighting, not only to win, but to utterly decimate the republican party nationwide.

The one thing I take away from all of these polls is that an additional 2 million democrats were registered between 2006 and January of this year. The republicans lost almost half a million from their rolls.

Add on top of that the millions of new registrations of blacks, hispanics, and young people during the protracted democratic primaries, as well as the further reduction of republicans during the same time, and you have a lot of new voters in the pool that aren't typically captured in this polling.

Now as far as polling goes, I like Gallup and Rasmussen for national numbers because they do rolling averages and poll over a thousand people per night. I look at Real Clear Politics, Five Thirty Eight, Electoral Vote, and Pollster to look at the state-by-state numbers, since those are far more important than national numbers anyway.

With Obama ahead nationally by anywhere from 2-7pts depending on the poll, and ahead by a substantial margin in the electoral vote count on a state by state basis, it would take a gaffe of catastrophic proportions, or some other enormous game changer, to see McCain win. Taking into consideration all of those newly registered voters and the sheer ground game the Obama campaign has built up over the past couple of years, and I think there's a hidden cushion there that isn't necessarily shown in the polling.

I'm not saying it's a done deal and that people can sit back and relax, but the numbers are just not in McCain's favor by any stretch of the imagination.

Pollster, Five Thirty Eight, and Electoral Vote are all pointing to a 300+ EV victory for Obama going by the state polling. That is thus far translating to roughly a 3-5% popular vote win.

At this stage of the election season, it's actually comparable to what happened in 1980 when Ronald Reagan was the insurgent candidate and Carter was the incumbent. John McCain isn't the incumbent President, but he is the incumbent party. At this point Reagan was actually tracking weaker #s than Obama. Once the debates happened, however, it turned from a relatively close election into a landslide.

That's why I think the debates are going to be so crucial. Obama needs to show the american people that he can not only stand toe to toe with McCain in the debates, but that he is in fact in charge of all of the knowledge McCain and the republicans accuse him of having no knowledge of.

Given responses such as this, I have complete and utter faith that this will happen.

As we get closer and closer to election day, I believe that this will turn away from a 300+ EV victory with a 3-5% popular vote victory to something closer to 6-10% and possibly even 320-350+ EV.

The precedent for this kind of election (right track/wrong track, sour economy, sour mood of the country) does exist in history. The only precedent that I believe could keep this from being a real laugher is, unfortunately, the color of Obama's skin.

But in the end, I don't think that will be anywhere near enough to cause Obama to lose.

Now that said, let's look at some other historical information. WAPO article found, courtesy of dansac's recced diary, shows that the Obama campaign registered 49,000 new voters in Virginia, in August, alone.

Almost 260,000 new voters have registered there courtesy of the Obama campaign GOTV ground game since the primaries began. 142,000 during the primaries and another 114,000 since June. If they hold pace that will be another 90-110k registrations in September and October. They're saying that could add another 1-2% to his popular vote totals in VA and be enough, along with the general indicators that are pointing toward movement in that state, to put the state in Obama's column.

When you look at the fact that Bush won VA by 9pts in 2004, that's an enormous turnaround for Obama to even be ahead right now by 2-3pts in VA.

Here are some others. #s courtesy of Pollster, Electoral Vote, and Five Thirty Eight.

North Dakota: Bush won by 27pts. Obama tied to ahead by 3.
South Dakota: Bush won by 22pts. Obama's within 4-6.
Indiana: Bush won by 21pts. Obama's within 2-4.
Montana: Bush won by 20pts. Obama's tied to ahead by 3.
Georgia: Bush won by 17pts. Obama's within 6-7pts.
North Carolina: Bush won by 12pts. Obama's within 3.
Virginia: Bush won by 9pts. Obama's ahead by 1-2 or tied.

The story continues in every other republican stronghold.

Additionally, look at the election simulations from Five Thirty Eight:

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What do you see? The majority of simulations end with Obama receiving 270+ electoral votes. The highest proportion of simulations ends with Obama receiving 310-330 votes.

But beyond that, you notice that the standard deviation from the magic 270 EV count strongly favors Obama.

In other words, if you plotted the number of simulations done to achieve a certain EV count, they would end up, by and large, above 300 EVs.

As I said at the beginning, I believe this election is on the cusp of becoming a landslide for Obama, and I believe that's why the McCain campaign panicked and chose Palin at the last minute without vetting her.

Again folks, in short this is our election to lose.

So please join with me in phone banking if you can. Join with your fellow Obama supporters in canvassing if you can. Donate to the Obama campaign if you can.

I'm phone banking and I've setup a fundraising drive just a few days ago. In that time I've been able to raise $855, so please click this link to go to my personal fundraising page and help me reach my goal of $5000.  We are on the cusp folks. Let's keep this rolling.

Tags: Barack Obama, Blowout, Carter, Democratic, Fundraising, George Bush, John McCain, landslide, Presidential, race, Reagan, Republican, Sarah Palin (all tags)

Comments

44 Comments

tips jar [nt]

by Yalin 2008-09-06 03:54PM | 0 recs
Re: On The Cusp of a Landslide. Keep Fighting!

Recc'd for being an excellent voice of sanity.

Nate knows statistics, and how to read polls.  He may be the best in the business.

by AntiStipes 2008-09-06 03:54PM | 0 recs
Re: On The Cusp of a Landslide. Keep Fighting!

agreed

by wellinformed 2008-09-07 09:15AM | 0 recs
Re: On The Cusp of a Landslide. Keep Fighting!

Other than "keep fighting" why do you even bother posting soemthing like this? All of Obama's so-called "supporters" on the liberal blogosphere will just gang up on you with negative comments. You make some good points and back them up with viable evidence, but everybody around here wants to jump off the ledge.

Good job.

by spirowasright 2008-09-06 03:54PM | 0 recs
Re: On The Cusp of a Landslide. Keep Fighting!

Obama's so-called "supporters"

Interesting comment.

Are you a Spiro Agnew fan?

by AntiStipes 2008-09-06 03:58PM | 0 recs
Re: On The Cusp of a Landslide. Keep Fighting!

No, he/she's a fan of the Spirograph.

by mistersite 2008-09-06 05:15PM | 0 recs
Re: On The Cusp of a Landslide. Keep Fighting!

Well that clears everything up then.

;-)

by AntiStipes 2008-09-06 05:24PM | 0 recs
Re: On The Cusp of a Landslide. Keep Fighting!

If you and Stipes show up on the same thread, does the whole Internet explode?

by bottl4 2008-09-06 07:10PM | 0 recs
Re: On The Cusp of a Landslide. Keep Fighting!
Dr. Egon Spengler: There's something very important I forgot to tell you.
Dr. Peter Venkman: What?
Dr. Egon Spengler: Don't cross Stipes and AntiStipes.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Why?
Dr. Egon Spengler: It would be bad.
Dr. Peter Venkman: I'm fuzzy on the whole good/bad thing. What do you mean, "bad"?
Dr. Egon Spengler: Try to imagine all life as you know it stopping instantaneously and every molecule in your body exploding at the speed of light.
Dr Ray Stantz: Total protonic reversal.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Right. That's bad. Okay. All right. Important safety tip. Thanks, Egon.
by mistersite 2008-09-06 07:19PM | 0 recs
Re: On The Cusp of a Landslide. Keep Fighting!

Pretty much.  

It's just like that old episode of Star Trek.

by AntiStipes 2008-09-06 07:20PM | 0 recs
Re: On The Cusp of a Landslide. Keep Fighting!

So which one of you has the goatee?

by mistersite 2008-09-06 07:21PM | 0 recs
Re: On The Cusp of a Landslide. Keep Fighting!

Stipes does.  

He's trying to compensate for going bald.

I, on the other don't have suck worries...I have plenty of hair on my back.

Cheers!

by AntiStipes 2008-09-06 07:24PM | 0 recs
Re: On The Cusp of a Landslide. Keep Fighting!

Wow, I completely mangled that sentence.

Well, if you add the missing word, and correct the Freudian slip, it should read:

I, on the other hand, don't have such worries...

by AntiStipes 2008-09-06 07:25PM | 0 recs
Re: On The Cusp of a Landslide. Keep Fighting!

I used to be one.

In fact, I was a Republikcan until Ronnie Hollywood got in and date raped the midwestern economy.

The moniker is more a response to the constant barrage of negative responses I see when someone tries to encourage the liberal blogosphere and point out that better days may be ahead.

I read a lot of those responses here, at DKos and DU in the days following the 2004 election, when it looked llike the GOP was going to pay serving six years in the WH (which it did).

Reading all moaning and groaning from the Cold Water Brigade and how it seemed like anything positive regarding the Democrats' chances were greeted like the kid experssing an unpopular position in a high school or junior college debate class, I was reminded of Agnew's "nattering nabobs of negativism" comment.
Hence the name, Spiro was right.

BTW, I'm neutral as far as the presidencey is concerned this year.

by spirowasright 2008-09-06 05:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Keep Fighting! We're On The Cusp of a Landslid

Now that Palin has thrown down the gauntlet and the McCain team has shown they are going into full-bore Rovian ratfuck mode, it is essential that Obama ramp up the negative advertising.  The McCain = Bush meme is a no-brainer and should absolutely be used as a cudgel whenever possible.  

It's a simple equation: McCain is just like Bush + He doesn't even know how many houses he owns + Unemployment is at a record high + He wants to overturn Roe v. Wade = Obama wins.

But all this "John McCain is a good man, but..." business has to stop.  John McCain is not a good man, he is a fucking creep who will run this country into the ground if he gets a chance.  The gloves are off, it's time to beat these bastards.

Then there's the debates.  Who's more likely to make an embarrassing gaffe, Obama or John "Czechoslovakia" McCain?  McCain is not all that bright, my friends.  I'm fully expecting Obama to kick the living shit out of him.

Think Kennedy vs. Nixon.  

by JK47 2008-09-06 04:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Keep Fighting! We're On The Cusp of a Landslid

Obama's going after Palin tomorrow to an extent. That much we know. I think we'll see the Obama/Biden strategy tomorrow morning. Honestly, as long as Palin is in seclusion, they can pretty much attack with impunity and get their message across.

by vcalzone 2008-09-06 05:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Keep Fighting! We're On The Cusp of a Landslid

WTF are they going to say? "It's not fair to attack a woman when she's too stupid to defend herself yet?"

And frankly, how is that not a winner of a talking point in and of itself? "If that phone call comes at 3AM, what's Sarah Palin going to say, 'Tell them to hold on for a week or so, I'm not ready yet'?"

by vcalzone 2008-09-06 05:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Keep Fighting! We're On The Cusp of a Landslid
He also teed off on her today in Terre Haute.
I think they're going after her selection more than the Governor herself, which is a better tactic.
Remember, she's not running for President.
by spirowasright 2008-09-06 05:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Keep Fighting! We're On The Cusp of a Landslid

Boy, you're just full of great wisdom.  What have we done without you?

by AntiStipes 2008-09-06 06:45PM | 0 recs
Breath of fresh air...

Great diary.  You mean I should be wailing over Palin and the daily tracking polls every day?

Whoda thunk it?

Rec'd.

by fogiv 2008-09-06 05:56PM | 0 recs
The debates...

That's why I think the debates are going to be so crucial. Obama needs to show the american people that he can not only stand toe to toe with McCain in the debates, but that he is in fact in charge of all of the knowledge McCain and the republicans accuse him of having no knowledge of.

They are crucial.  They will BOTH be trying to convince the American public that they are acceptable and not dangerous.  That, more than just being smart and capable.  McCain's goal will be to show that he isn't senile (an easy hurdle to pass, but any small gaffe could sink him).  Obama's goal will be to seem reasonably competent and to not seem like Al Sharpton.  I don't expect fireworks.

by Dumbo 2008-09-06 06:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Keep Fighting! We're On The Cusp of a Landslid

Obama has been playing error-free ball for quite some time now.  I am confident that he will ace the debates.  Unfortunately for McCain, the debates will be about the issues, so Obama has a large built-in advantage.  

by JK47 2008-09-06 07:09PM | 0 recs
You are so right

... I MEAN CORRECT with this simple line.

"This, more than any other election in my 31 years, is ours to lose. We MUST keep fighting, not only to win, but to utterly decimate the republican party nationwide."

by kevin22262 2008-09-06 07:09PM | 0 recs
I don't believe at this time a landslide is...

...possible.  In fact, I don't believe either candidate can achieve 50 percent.

I think it is fight to the finish line and we can not afford to take any vote for granite.  And furthermore, I think it will be a fist fight, the more it looks like Obama can do it, the more awful and horrible things will be done and said.  Every line will be crossed.  

These people know that at least for now, the House and Senate are lost, and they cannot afford to lose the WH.  This is their hill that they will defend.  This is their Alamo.  

by zmus 2008-09-06 07:58PM | 0 recs
Re: I don't believe at this time a landslide is...

I actually don't care about a landslide popular vote win. My point was about EVs.

Make sense?

by Yalin 2008-09-06 08:01PM | 0 recs
Re: I don't believe at this time a landslide is...

Yeah, I understood your post, and I understand the EC.  I guess I would not regard 300 ecs has a landslide, especially since the Michigan and Ohio are worth 37 votes.  We could lose both of those states by a few thousand votes and we would probably be under 270.  We win those and we are probably around 300.  The entire thing is razor thin.

I love your enthusiasm and your confidence.  But I want folks to also respect and fear how good the republicans are at winning the WH.  And they are focusing all their energy and resources on keeping it.  How many dirty tricks are going to happen in Ohio and Michigan between now and Nov?

by zmus 2008-09-06 08:39PM | 0 recs
Re: I don't believe at this time a landslide is...

This election, nor any election is about achieving "50 percent". Did you not read the post, or do you not understand how a president is elected? The election is about electoral college votes. The post is about how much of a lead Obama has when it comes to said votes.I don't know if you're a troll, or you just don't understand what is really going on. In any case, please, know is happening before you decide to post.

by onlinesavant 2008-09-06 08:17PM | 0 recs
Re: I don't believe at this time a landslide is...

I read the post, and so did the commenter, and he/she makes a valid point--whether in reference to popular vote OR the electoral vote count.

There is nothing wrong with questioning the notion that we are "on the cusp of a landslide".  I like the enthusiasm of this diary, and appreciate the need to work hard to get Obama to get narrowly elected; this urgency, however, underlies the very real possibility that we may also be on the cusp of a narrow loss.

Obama's lead of 1-4 points in most of the state polls mentioned in this diary is actually within the margin of error: hardly evidence of being on the cusp of a landslide.

Throw in some of the intangibles: Add the potential Bradley Effect of this general election.

Add the undecideds--noting that those undecided in the primary went 2:1 for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama.  I was convinced then, and still am now, that these were anti-Obama holdovers more so than pro-Hillary voters.  The same ratio, roughly, might work in today's favor.  Underpinning this movement of the undecideds against Obama may be fear, racism, or ignorance; yet the point is to acknowledge that these intangibles do exist, and to prepare for them.

I think the content of the diary does give the hint that we are not TODAY on the cusp of a landslide.  That is contingent on hard work, and perhaps some luck in the next sixty days.  Perhaps the better title might have been: We still have work to do.

by MMR2 2008-09-06 08:38PM | 0 recs
Re: I don't believe at this time a landslide is...

Correction:  "The same ratio, roughly, might work in today's favor" should read "in McCain's favor".

by MMR2 2008-09-06 08:42PM | 0 recs
Re: I don't believe at this time a landslide is...

The difference is that those state polls I mentioned were Bush states by 10-25pts. The states Kerry won are all deep blue.

:)

by Yalin 2008-09-06 08:44PM | 0 recs
addendum

all deep blue already for Obama. This is talking about going on offense to get even more. :)

by Yalin 2008-09-06 08:44PM | 0 recs
Re: addendum

thanks I needed this dairy  

after palin and the rnc anti Obama convention

I was afraid the tide may turn in McCains favor

I feel better now

thanks again for all your research  

definetely recced

by wellinformed 2008-09-07 08:46AM | 0 recs
Re: I don't believe at this time a landslide is...

One of the "intangibles" that you conveniently neglect to acknowledge is the unprecedented surge of new DEMOCRATIC voter registrations in many of literally all states. Coupled with the, once again, unprecedented network of field offices that the Obama campaign has set up in every state in the country. I was in middle Georgia last week and visited the Obama campaign headquarters there. One of fifteen they have in the state. So yes, this post is all about remaining vigilant and working very hard. But the Obama campaign supporters are doing that. We don't know the future, but the current landscape is very favorable to an Obama win, which is what this post is all about, with the caveat that we keep working hard.

by onlinesavant 2008-09-07 07:33AM | 0 recs
You've actually made the case for another outcome

States that have gone overwhelmingly Republican in the past will be closer this time, but probably go GOP again. This will happen especially in Southern States like MS, SC, and GA.

It's getting increasingly likely that Obama could get a significant victory in the popular vote (+3 million votes), and still lose in the Electoral College. Not a great outcome for the country, but maybe it will wake up people in Congress from their naps to change a fairly antiquated--and dangerous---method for choosing our Presidents.

by BJJ Fighter 2008-09-06 09:48PM | 0 recs
National popular vote

worth checking out:

http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

by vadasz 2008-09-06 11:49PM | 0 recs
Sounds reasonable

But lets be vigilant and keep working our ass off...if it gets close it is bad for us. Never forget how funny things happen at the polls...like ballots don't register, hanging chads and no paper trail voting...we have already seen that the GOP lie through their teeth and continue that practice in their current campaign...we absolutely can't trust them...not one inch.

by netgui68 2008-09-07 06:58AM | 0 recs
I just don't see any evidence of a landslide

Rasmussen's new numbers out this morning (Sun.) have the race tied: 46% each w/o leaners; 48% each when leaners are included. Only new mention of any statewide activity was in OH, where he sees movement toward McCain.

by BJJ Fighter 2008-09-07 09:06AM | 0 recs
Re: I just don't see any evidence of a landslide

Again, EV count, not popular vote, is what elects the president on a national level.

Just keep that in mind and check out my diary again. :)

by Yalin 2008-09-07 10:10AM | 0 recs
Where on Rasmussen's site

is he talking about numbers moving McCain's direction in Ohio?  He was already leading Obama by five in Ohio, so I suppose Rasmussen is saying that Ohio is turning into Missouri in terms of Obama's deficit.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-07 10:57AM | 0 recs
I will believe it when I see it. But till then...

If Obama had 10% leads across all of the battleground states, I would still feel nervous about the republican attempts to deny peoples right to vote or stealing the election at the ballot box.  

I have no doubt that in every battleground state with republicans in charge they will stop at nothing to steal this election.  And when it is all done we may all be rightfully complaining that we no longer live in a democracy, but it won't matter.

It happened in 2000, and 2004.  But both of those were just dry runs for the big theft they will attempt this year.

by Bri 2008-09-07 09:07AM | 0 recs
Re: We're On The Cusp of a McCain Landslide.

McCain Leads in Today's Gallup poll 48-45

by Avistan 2008-09-07 09:18AM | 0 recs
Re: We're On The Cusp of a McCain Landslide.

That was expected coming out of the RNC. It'll settle again in a few days.

by Yalin 2008-09-07 10:42AM | 0 recs
are you kidding?

John is now ahead in the last few days of polls, no one is talking about issues, not even Barack, he's still repeating his funny name remark and it's time to get scared, not complacent.  

Barack is now crediting the Clinton economic recovery and the more he shows respect for that past and rather than dissing Sarah, respecting Hillary and using her smarts, to prepare for the debate, to refine policy messages, he'll win those who aren't sure of him and don't know what he plans to do.  he needs to win back blue collar democrats, and he can.  

by anna shane 2008-09-07 10:47AM | 0 recs
I remember the Kerry landslide very

well.

Cheerleaders in the liberal blogosphere told me John Kerry was a great closer.

by Geekesque 2008-09-07 12:09PM | 0 recs

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