Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

I'm trying to discern just how much of a lead Obama has to have before Hillary's supporters on this site will say "enough" and call for her to wrap it up.

I therefore ask the following question:

IF:

A.  Come June, Obama has more pledged delegates than Clinton, even counting the bogus primaries in Florida and Michigan;

B.  Come June, Obama leads in the popular vote; and

C.  Come June, the remaining uncommitted superdelegates call a special meeting to announce who they are supporting (as has been suggested) and do not provide Clinton enough additional votes to overcome Obama's pledged delegate lead;

will you THEN urge Clinton to drop out of the race so the party and nominee can focus on defeating McBush in November?

Well, what say you?

Tags: clinton, Election, Florida, Michigan, obama, Presidential, race, superdelegates (all tags)

Comments

50 Comments

Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

IF, at the end of the day, BHO has more pledged delegates (including FL/MI) and more popular votes, then I will urge HRC to drop out.

Will you urge BHO to drop out if HRC has more pledged delegates (including FL/MI) and more popular votes ?

by SevenStrings 2008-03-30 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

Of course, this is a democracy.

by XoFalconXo 2008-03-30 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

well, then the question becomes...what do you do about FL/MI

HRC will almost certainly win (both pledged delegates and popular votes) if you count FL/MI.  BHO will almost certainly win if you do not.

by SevenStrings 2008-03-30 12:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

Presently, Obama still leads in both counts even including Michigan and Florida.  Assuming a relative split the rest of the way, I don't see how Clinton overtakes him.

by XoFalconXo 2008-03-30 12:51PM | 0 recs
She won't.

She can't.

MI won't be 55% to 0%. That's not democracy. It'll be 55% to 40% at a minimum or, as HRC said, it won't count. FL can be seated as is and she still can't catch up.

Only using Karl Roves THE MATH can she catch up and we saw how well that worked for Karl.

by RLMcCauley 2008-03-30 01:00PM | 0 recs
still cheating

Hillary Clinton herself said, before the elections in those states, that the votes wouldn't count.

why are you so resolved to cheat?

absolutely shameful.

Michigan and Florida SHOULD have real votes, i'd be glad to count those. and HELL YES i'd ask Obama to drop out if he was in 2nd after all the voting.

by catchaz 2008-03-30 01:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

Yes i will urge HRC to drop out and campaign for BO is this turns out to be the case.

david

by giusd 2008-03-30 04:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

If there is a revote and he has more pledged delegates and more popular votes then He is the nominee.

But you can't say oh I have blocked Mi / Fl because i would likely lose those contests and would affect my nomination , so now that i have blocked it , lets shut it down.

That won't fly.

by lori 2008-03-30 12:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

Well, what if he leads in pledged delegates even counting those contests?

by XoFalconXo 2008-03-30 12:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

If Mi/Fl are allowed to count she would lead in the popular vote.

If Obama has the pledged delegate lead which would be below hundred and she has the popular vote , then the sd have to decide.

That is the fear his camp has , if both Mi and Fl is allowed a revote she would win and would go with the lead in popular votes to the convention.

He doesn't want that .

I agree with clinton if both states are not allowed to have a voice and obama gets the nomination , it would be illegitimate in my opinion.

by lori 2008-03-30 12:55PM | 0 recs
She'd only lead in the pop vote

if you discount the caucuses and that won't happen. Not that the pop vote is the measure used to determine the nominee anyway. That's why we have delegates.

by RLMcCauley 2008-03-30 01:01PM | 0 recs
Re: She'd only lead in the pop vote

and those delegates are not as 'pledged' as your limited experience leads you to believe. yet you keep posting the same answer to almost every post and think you have a point in your spam.

by zerosumgame 2008-03-30 03:20PM | 0 recs
Once 2024 is Reached

The other candidate should drop out. I'm not sure but I THINK those are the rules

by Wiseprince 2008-03-30 12:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Once 2024 is Reached

I agree.  My concern is with the saber-rattling I've heard from the Clinton camp over credentials fights and trying get pledged delegates to switch votes on the floor of the convention.

by XoFalconXo 2008-03-30 12:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Once 2024 is Reached

and there have been no sabers rattled by shrieking BHO zealots? PUH-lease go back to dkos/freeperville and stop trolling here

by zerosumgame 2008-03-30 12:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Once 2024 is Reached

Huh?  That wasn't responsive.  Moreover, Obama hasn't threatened to force a floor fight at the convention even if he is losing in both the delegate and popular vote count.

by XoFalconXo 2008-03-30 12:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Once 2024 is Reached

you made a broad-brush passive-aggressive attack completely ignoring the bs and 'saber-rattling' on those sites that you take your talking points from. there was nothing real in your post to respond to.

by zerosumgame 2008-03-30 01:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Once 2024 is Reached

Hows this for substantive:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/120062/page/2

Heres Clinton implying that she will go after Obama's pledged delegates.

by XoFalconXo 2008-03-30 01:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Once 2024 is Reached

you seem to read a lot of your own problems as 'implications' in others words.

by zerosumgame 2008-03-30 03:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Once 2024 is Reached

Well, how would you interpret what she said?  "Pledged delegates are fair game" is the only reasonable interpretation.

by XoFalconXo 2008-03-30 03:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Once 2024 is Reached

since that is how the rules are written then yes they are fair game and they have been for decades at the very least. and so far you have presented no valid reason she should tie her hands except that she is a she. you have this elementary school level vision of politics, it's about time you and mbnyc grew-up about the subject.

by zerosumgame 2008-03-30 05:37PM | 0 recs
You there.

You're either going to stop randomly trollrating Obama supporters, including every single trollrating I've received in the last few days, or I'm going to start handing you some zeros. There are rules about this stuff, and I suggest you acquaint yourself with them.

Understood?

by MBNYC 2008-03-30 07:34PM | 0 recs
Re: You there.

until you and they stop trolling me I will continue to TR those who are taking vengeance on me for finding their off topic rants and thread-jackings offensive

by zerosumgame 2008-03-31 03:56PM | 0 recs
No, you see...

...the idea is that trollish comments are supposed to be trollrated. You seem to think that this ipso facto includes pro-Obama comments; which is probably why you're getting trollrated in turn.

It would also help if you didn't make trollish comments yourself, which you have done. Chill out a little bit, k, pal?

by MBNYC 2008-03-31 04:51PM | 0 recs
Re: You there.

not to get too off topic here, but, zerosum, you've tr'd about 10 of my comments, some of which weren't even related to politics. I agree, MBNYC.

by shef 2008-03-31 09:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Once 2024 is Reached

The Clinton campaigin has agreed to a revote, Obama camp said no. What other option is there, other than conceding the nomination, that going to the convention. The Obama campaign loves the rules so long as they ensure his victory. The rules regarding pledged delegates are, apparentl, that they are up for grabs at theh convention. The rules regarding MI/FL is that they can be seated as is if the convention commitee passes it. These are the rules so I see no justification for Clinton to leave since its so close, notwithstanding what the Obama campaign and his supporters have been saying

by Wiseprince 2008-03-30 01:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Once 2024 is Reached

A candidate does not have to "drop out" until the convention has met and made their decision. It is way too soon to call this race over. There are millions of people who are excited about being a part of this process, including young people on both sides who are getting involved in ways even their parents don't remember. The "rules" are that the delegates to the convention (pledged, unpledged, and super) "informed by" the popular vote (as shown by the actions of pledged Democrats on the 1st ballot)shall choose the candidate who they believe IN AUGUST will be the best candidate to lead the party AND our country. As of this writing, neither candidate is going to the convention with anywhere near the required majority in pledged delegates except in the wishful thinking of his/her supporters. It's time to get both candidates and their supporters to focus on the issues that will matter on 1/20/2009.

by pan230 2008-03-30 02:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

I am leaning toward Clinton taking this to the convention after listening to Brazile today.

by Liberty 2008-03-30 12:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

She is going to be the winner of the popular vote and we have no idea regarding MI/FL. This thing is going to the convention for sure.

by American1989 2008-03-30 12:58PM | 0 recs
She can only win pop vote

 - maybe - if you don't count the caucuses and give BHO a zero in MI. Neither of those things will happen.

by RLMcCauley 2008-03-30 01:02PM | 0 recs
anyone who answers no doesn't believe in Democracy

by catchaz 2008-03-30 01:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF
Why do Obama supporters keep posting these "if ... then" scenarios? Look, just have your guy focus on winning the remaining states and reaching 2024 delegates. Quit acting so frightened and focus on winning all 50 states. This is a primary where all voters will get an opportunity to vote for the candidate of their choice; once it's all over and neither one has 2024, then it goes to convention. Why are trying so hard to get end this prematurely? You all feel Obama is electable and that he can easily beat McCain, so relax and don't worry about it. If your guy is as great as you say he is, he shouldn't have any problems beating Hillary and then beating McCain. One thing is for certain: this will play out and all voters will have a say in this - not just you Obama supporters.
by yogi41 2008-03-30 01:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

Apparently, you didn't read the diary.  The question I asked assumes that all delegates, both pledged and super, are decided sometime in June, two months before the convention.  Thus, everyone has their vote and their say.

by XoFalconXo 2008-03-30 01:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

this is no more a foregone conclusion than the outcome of the NC primary - if anything, it's beginning to look like the "cigar-filled backroom" is actually full of the very Obama supporters who were whining and crying for sunshine no more than six weeks ago -

by pan230 2008-03-30 02:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

Huh?  So are you for or against superdelegates being allowed to vote their conscience?

by XoFalconXo 2008-03-30 03:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't pledged delegates only required to vote for the candidate they're "pledged" to in the first round of voting? After the first round, I believe they can vote for whomever they want.

by Lacy Davenport 2008-03-30 01:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

Correct -- as far as is known about convention rules, they are only "pledged" for the first and maybe the second round of voting. After that they are free to vote as they please. And with all this talk of attempted poaching of pledged delegates (on both sides) they may not even be totally pledged for the first round. Though, this is a new wrinkle. Don't remember hearing about poaching before this. But it may have gone on.

by cuppajoe 2008-03-30 01:54PM | 0 recs
how it' s'posed to work ---

It seems that many writers here only remember the conventions since 1976. The most successful Democratic Presidential campaign during this period was the Clinton-Gore campaign of 1992 - the one in which Bill did not even clinch the nomination until JUNE. Let's give the good folks of the remaining states a chance to hear the candidates debate the issues and to see each of them up close and personal and let them have their say. I would also like to see some resolution to the MI/FL mess that will be the lasting legacy of the Democratic party for a generation if not resolved.

by pan230 2008-03-30 02:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

Right, but keep in mind these people weren't exactly picked out of a hat. They are all ardent Obama or Clinton supporters and activists. Not likely to switch sides.

by animated 2008-03-30 02:06PM | 0 recs
Horse Trading

Both camps will work the "smoke-filled back rooms". They are good at it, and they'll have stuff to trade. The superdelegates who wish to have political futures for themselves will be listening very carefully. If you think Bill Richardson turned tail because he was bored, think again.

by pan230 2008-03-30 02:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

Actually, no delegates are truly bound even for the first vote. This was changed after the '80 election in which Carter's popular support was crashing at the time of the convention and Ted Kennedy had scored huge primary victories in the later part of the primary season, but Carter had won the necessary pledged delegates in the early primary season when he was still reasonably popular. There was an attempt at the convention to release the pledged delegates from their pledges before the first vote, but it was not successful; the pledged delegates voted as required, Carter was the nominee, and the rest is history. In '82, the party modified the rules to allow the delegates to vote their consciences on the first ballot.

I can't remember where I learned all that (somewhere recently), but I just googled to confirm that my understanding was correct.

Apparently, that '82 conference was also when the super delegates were added to ensure victory for the establishment candidate.

by alephnul 2008-03-30 04:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

Nope, Obama's checkered past could well knock him out of the running at even a late date. If there is a conviction in the Rezko trial, I want an alternative ready to go regardless of how many delegates he has.

by Little Otter 2008-03-30 02:04PM | 0 recs
Mark Your Words

You'll need them when this comes to pass mid-summer.

by pan230 2008-03-30 02:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

Rezko will probably be convicted, but Obama is in no way implicated. Trying to pin Rezko's misdeeds on Obama is utterly shameless. Obama has much less association with Rezko's crimes than Clinton had with the Whitewater scandal (and people went to jail for their crimes for that as well).

by alephnul 2008-03-30 04:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

yes its all over at this point!

by gabbie 2008-03-30 02:48PM | 0 recs
Stop Ignoring Florida and Michigan!
.....even counting the bogus primaries in Florida and Michigan.....

When will Obama campaign stop trying to disenfranchise two vitally important states like Florida and Michigan. There is nothing BOGUS about the innocent Democrats in those states that voted in good faith. Clinton is right. If the DNC fails to seat the delegates at the convention, it's not going to matter who wins the Democratic nomination......McCain wins.

by zenful6219 2008-03-30 03:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Stop Ignoring Florida and Michigan!

To beat a dead horse further, they are bogus because:

A. Both candidates agreed that they wouldn't count.

B. Florida's voters didn't have the benefit of two candidates who campaigned vigorously in their state.

C. Undoubtedly, some voters chose to stay home in primaries that didn't count.

D. Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan.  If I were the only person on the ballot, I'm quite certain I'd win too, but that doesn't mean Michiganers want XoFalconXo for president.

So, yes, they were bogus primaries.  If you want to argue that they should be redone, then fine.  But thats an argument for a different diary.

by XoFalconXo 2008-03-30 03:21PM | 0 recs
Nope

A. Both candidates agreed that they wouldn't count.

Never happened.  Tired of hearing about it.

Clinton made one off-the-cuff statement in a radio interview that the election in Michigan wouldn't count, but

(1) that statement had nothing at all to do with Florida, and

(2) it was merely a statement of existing fact, not any kind of promise or agreement or pledge.  The statement contained no "intent" words whatsoever, but it did contain the phrase "it's clear," which mark it as a statement of fact.  You don't say "it's clear" about your own intent: you just state it and identify as your intent.

by Trickster 2008-03-30 04:27PM | 0 recs
Answer

I'm not planning for defeat.  If it arrives, I'll recognize it.  I have no interest in lost causes or combat for the point of combat.

In the meanwhile, your constant pressure is extremely tiresome.  Please start playing nice.  We have answered this question and you don't need to go on asking.  

I'm not accustomed to being asked the same question over and over and over and over and over and over and over.  If it happened on the street, I think I would

- be peeved and ask you to stop after 2-3 times

  • demand that you stop after about 6-8 times
  • get in your face after about 10 times
  • refrain from hitting you after you continue only because I pride myself in being civilized, but I would pull out my cell phone and call the cops.

Well, there are no cops here, but isn't it OK for me to hope that the same rules of etiquette that prevent this situation from ever arising on the street should apply here?

Please - I ask you nicely, even though I've already heard the question, not 2-3 times, but hundreds of times - please, please stop.

by Trickster 2008-03-30 03:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Question for Hillary Supporters: IF

Look its a very close race.

Traditional metrics are

Popular vote
Popular vote among those who are registered democrats
pledged delegate count
Ability to win an election in November

I think its fair to say the following:

Under all conceivable outcomes Hillary wins the democratic party member vote by between 500,000 and 1,000,000 votes.

Obama likely wins the total popular vote with non democrats factored in by ~200,0000 to ~600,000 if Florida and Michigan are NOT counted.

Obama clearly wins pledged delegates if Florida and Michigan are not counted

Hillary clearly wins pledged delegates if Florida and Michigan are counted as cast with Obama getting 0% in Michigan.

Hillary clearly wins popular vote if Michigan and Florida are counted as cast.

As for super delegates its anyone's guess at this point

by DTaylor 2008-03-30 04:08PM | 0 recs

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