• comment on a post Overtime Thread over 9 years ago
    I totally disagree.  Kerry needs to concede.  He should say that because bush won the popular vote there is no basis for waiting for ohio.  

    bush will win with these numbers and the dems just look petty prolonging the inevitable.  Let the neocons hang themselves.  We need to be an organized opposition, so that when things crash down.. there will be another voice.  

    What is inevitable for bush:

    1. Iraq becomes vietnam, and Kerry doesnt get the blame.. (one for us)

    2. Continued tax cuts will balloon the foreign debt so much that taxes will need to rise just to pay the interest (to foreign banks!) to avoid federal bankrupcy -- and we can say.. we warned you.. we have a better way

    3. The GOP has carte blanche to pursue a right wing social agenda.. wait until abortion is criminalized and watch moderate America rush into our camp

    4.  GOP splits.  The east coast- west coast moderate republicans will not want to be associated with the bush agenda.  Major party power struggles ahead.

    5.  And lets not forget the coal-induced mercury levels.  I expect to see higher rates of birth defects in the industrial midwest before the end of the age of bush.  We did what we could to prevent it.. now the american people need to accept the consequences of their votes.. I dont feel guilty.  

    Hang tough.. accept defeat with grace.. as i said in an earlier post.. this is probably not a bad election to lose.
  • on a comment on Open Thread over 9 years ago
    I agree that this will be a very good election to lose.  I was praying for a bush defeat, but got very anxious (unexpectedly) when the great exit polls came out so strongly for Kerry.  Fact is, the war in Iraq (which will eclipse terrorism by a huge margin in the next few years) is gonna get a lot worse very quick.  Powell already said that the insurgents are winning.  There is no way to hold Iraq for very long without a huge increase in US troop strength.  And that will only make the occupation longer.  There is no way the US will "win" in Iraq.  If Kerry is elected.. the GOP will blame the inevitable catastrophe there on his poor leadership.  Let bush try to clean up his own mess there, and let him assume accountablity when the US is driven out.  Ultimately, he cant shirk responsibility when the American people realize he wasted thousands of US lives, hundreds of thousands of Iraqi lives, 100's of billions of dollars, and created an extreme fundamentalist state, dedicated to exacting revenge for the illegal invasion
  • on a comment on Presidential prediction thread over 9 years ago
    And CO too close to call, but goes to Bush
  • on a comment on Presidential prediction thread over 9 years ago
    My formal prediction.. Kerry: Gore states +NH, FL.

    OH, MO, NM, NV too close to call on election day
    OH, NM to Kerry,
    MO, NV to Bush

  • comment on a post Presidential prediction thread over 9 years ago
    Incumbent presidents either win big or lose big.  Do you think Bush will win big?  Then its a comfortable Kerry victory.
  • on a comment on Presidential prediction thread over 9 years ago
    And Virginia will be TOO CLOSE TO CALL, after FL goes into the Kerry column
  • comment on a post Presidential prediction thread over 9 years ago
    You can ignore the incumbent rule.  New voters, young voters, minority voters, democratic voters are being consistently under-represented in the polls.  I think Tucker Carlson is right (i was gonna say correct)  Kerry at least 51% with a mandate.. Bush under 48.  

    EV  311 (291 w/o Ohio)  Kerry definately takes Florida!  People here are so pissed over '00.. lots of motivated Kerry voters.  

    And on Hawaii.. thats so funny.  Kerry by at least 9%.  I think the state tourist board and the Advertiser made up the close numbers so everyone would talk about what a great place it is to visit and do more research.  And so they would get some attention tomorrow night.  I lived there for three years and knew only two party line republicans.  The only reason the GOP took the state house was because the Dems there were so powerful they became arrogant and corrupt (Waihee and Cateyano were almost as bad as old man Daley in Chicago.)  Inouye and Akaka will insure a strong Kerry win.

  • comment on a post Looking at the House over 9 years ago
    In Florida now, but from Connecticut, and word on the street there is that Bush takes Shays with him when he falls (no objective data).  

    Texans, any chance Delay loses?

  • on a comment on Republicans Know over 9 years ago
    Guliani is a Bush apologist, and will never get my vote, but he is more socially progressive than McCain, way more than Bush, and when Bush loses, I think he will be active in moving his party more to the center, which will be very healthy for this country.

    And for the record, I despise Bush and believe his apologists share full responsibility for his incompetence, corruption and the needless deaths of 100,000+ Iraqis.

  • comment on a post Republicans Know over 9 years ago
    Lugar, Specter, Guliani, McCain, Arnold.. They are looking forward to a Bush defeat to take back their party from the hands of dangerous extremists.  I think you will see it even in their criticisms of Kerry... "Kerry is worthless president .. the only reason that he won the election in 2004 is because Bush was a wacko."
  • and how about abolishing the electoral college while we're at it?
  • on a comment on Turnout And The Incumbent Rule over 9 years ago
    And one more thing.... I voted today.. AND GOD IT FELT GREAT!
  • on a comment on Turnout And The Incumbent Rule over 9 years ago
    Awesome news from Monroe County - the Florida Keys.  According to the precinct manager today, they expect more people to have voted early in monroe county this year, then who voted altogether in 2000.  And they expect massive turn-out tomorrow; I know a lot of people who are waiting until tomorrow to vote.  

    Anecdotally, i know a lot of Bush defectors, and a huge increase in the Dem base.  Everyone i know who voted for Nader in 2000 is going for Kerry now.  

    Also good news, my stepmom is a polling inspector, and they are jumping through hoops to avoid using provisional ballots.  As of Friday, I thought it would be 50 Kerry 48 Bush in Florida, but now i think Kerry will get 51-53% of the Florida vote, and be well outside of a challengable margin.  

  • OK.. this might not be competely relevant, but it woke me up in the middle of the night, so I had to share.  I hate Bush so much, I admit, I cant think objectively, but I agree with Kerry, that Bush failed in the hunt for OBL because he was obsessed with colonizing Iraq.  So I think we can agree that Bush failed in protecting the US from international terrorists.

    What about domestic ones?  Last I heard about the anthrax attacks, the strain of athrax used in the attacks only exsisted in the US, and it was a strain that was weaponized by the government.  Considering the difficulty in producing that specific size particle, the conclusion, last we heard, was that it was stolen from a restricted US government biological facility.  Only a limited number of people had access to those labs.  Bush couldnt find OBL at Tora Bora.  He also couldnt identify the terrorist who attacked the US with anthrax, and we havent been reminded of Bush's failure for over 2 years.  

    Get the popcorn ready, and prepared to be regaled by the awesome footage we will see when our forces liberate Fallujah.  I hope we get that al-Zarqawi guy in time for the election.

  • comment on a post Open Thread over 9 years ago
    How will the OBL tape influence the election?  I dont think we can know at this point.  I am concerned about how the media sunk their teeth into without questioning its veracity.  They want a big story and this will be it until the invasion of Fallujah.  What is clear to me is that OBL wants Bush to win the election.  Bush has turned the US into a regime that OBL pretended it was in the pre-9/11 days.  The tape may not hurt Kerry, but I doubt it will help.

    I am more concerned about Fallujah.  The battle to occupy the city will probably start this weekend.  I was convinced that this would be the BC's October surprise.  Reading Kaletsky's editorial in the Times of London (thanks Thuja) captured my fears for my country more than anything else I've read.  If Bush wins re-election after starting an illegal war, based on lies, what future does our democracy have?

    But it occurs to me now, that if the media questions the timing of the inevitable Fallujah campaign, it may turn out real bad for Bush.  So my question is, how many of the insurgents that we kill in Fallujah will be under the age of 12?

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