Sabotaging the Dream Ticket
by WashStateBlue, Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 10:31:39 AM EDT
Since we are all hovering over our cell phones, waiting for this text, here's a little exercise in Machiavellian politics, and how I think this is being played out.
I have seen a number of speculations, mostly from the "Clinton is VP or I walk" crowd, that Obama is more likely to pick Clinton only if he needs her. So, the closer the polls, the more likely Clinton is the VP pick.
My take is the opposite and I think that is where we have in fact arrived.
I think the situation has come down, as Obama is not delivering the knockout blow in the polls (never thought he would btw) and, with Georgia maybe keeping Foreign Policy front and center, the Clintons may in fact have intentionally been sabotaging the VP deal, if it was ever to be made. Why take a ride on a losing ticket, when, more and more, you believe, McCain will be there for you to run against in 2012?
My smoking gun for that strategy was "catharsis". The Clinton folks had to know how that would play in the Obama camp; if the Obama team wanted healing, the last thing you call for is your `unrequited" followers to `take center stage', that their loss is more important then them pulling together for the party.
IF in fact, you want the deal to go through, you sell it as "a unity moment, a forging of an alliance", instead of making sure you call to highlight that your voters are STILL yours, and will always be.
It sends a message to the Obama camp, particularly those who are against the Dream Team, that their main argument is true. That, in the end, the Clintons will maneuver towards what in the long run is good for them. So, you kill the deal at the same time you seem to be keeping it open.
It's actually politically a good gamble. You make is so the Obama team can't in fact offer you the VP, which, again, rubs salt in the wounds of your unrequited supporters.
Then you can say, "it was never offered to us" rather then letting it leak, you turned it down, and the bitter goes up a notch.
A Clinton supporter made a statement on Political Slaves' great Dream Ticket thread, they were going to Denver either to "Unity up" if she is the VP, or "protest in the streets" if she is not.
I think the Clinton's are counting on that: lots of blood (symbolic of course) in the streets, something for CNN and the rest of the horde to focus on, and for Hannity and the crew to make the meme: "The Democrats are in Disarray!"
And, rather then the polls or the Georgian conflict, I think this in fact maybe what can sink Obama's chances.
Rather then he and his VP emerging triumphant from the convention, the focus remains on "Why not Hillary?""How can he NOW heal the party""Why did he slight her and her supporters"...you get my drift.
Ok, flame away, I'm expecting to get hit from both sides, both for calling the Clintons Machiavellian, and from the Obama folks, for thinking the Pumas are going to have any real effect and sabotage the convention and cost Obama the election.
But, it at least kills the time till the text comes in....