http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ has probably invested more into analysis of the swing state situation than you have. Obama is looking competitive now, and will look much better after the contentious nomination process is over.
The fervor you speak of belongs to people who spend too much time on the 'net arguing politics and, over time, find that their ego is tied to their candidate of choice. In other words, much less than 1% of the population. And even many of those will be able to disentangle their egos from their values. Many already have. Your emotions seem big to you when they consume you, but they are pretty small on the large scale.
Obama is competitive. They have both attracted a lot of support from labor throughout the campaign. HRC's attempt to position herself as the exclusive blue-collar candidate and place a wedge between Obama and the working class is fairly recent, and when she pulls out, she'll take the wedge with her.