by W126, Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 07:39:32 AM EDT
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election
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2008 US Election - 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election
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by W126, Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 05:39:32 AM EDT
This cannot, surely, be a moment for John McCain. He really doesn't understand the economy and thinks it "boring" in comparison with foreign policy. Wall Street is perceived as a largely Republican establishment animal and in time this will come to be seen as another crash - if this is what it is - which happened on the Republican's watch. McCain will be deeply confused by current developments and I can't wait to see how he tries to distance himself from the credit and spending boom over which his party presided.
So, naturally, this should be Obama's moment. He has struggled, for months, to connect with his fellow countrymen and has seemed merely verbose and disengaged from everyday concerns. He is now getting advice from Bill Clinton and should shamelessly steal the playbook that Clinton and James Carville devised in the 1992 campaign: "It's the economy stupid." The pair worked out that it was possible to sound pro-enterprise and pro-business while sticking up for blue-collar and middle class Americans. The formula was stolen for use in Britain to great electoral effect by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown after they visited Washington (it's a shame they didn't listen to the bit about the need for balanced budgets, but there you go).
So, Obama needs some good, simple, phrases and an attack which goes something like this: "Those in the Republican establishment aren't like you or me, look at the mess their rich friends have just made on Wall Street. Like you I believe in the American dream, but these folks betrayed that dream. Now, what about a little fairness and consideration for others?"
I believe, moments like these are cultural events, as much as they are purely economic or political, and from their fire great leaders are forged (FDR out of economic collapse, and Churchill from moral and military defeat).
Here comes the real test of Obama's supposed abilities to transcend a rather squalid contest with McCain. Trust in institutions and faith in leaders is running at such a low ebb that a leader who offered some common sense and optimism about the West's ability to regenerate itself could win big.
We'll know, probably by the end of this week, whether Obama has that special quality his advocates have claimed. If he does frame this moment correctly he'll win in November and become the most important figure of his generation. If he cannot, he really was just all hot air.
by W126, Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 12:25:02 AM EDT
Sarah Palin could've used the speech as an opportunity to rise above all the negativity and address issues. Instead, she talked about ebay, personal chefs, made stupid hockey mom jokes and mocked Obama in a comparison to Moses. She got down right nasty in her attacks.
She now reminds me of one of those women who will punch a man knowing he can't retaliate. She knows Obama didn't "attack her family". Yet she insists on lobbing grenades at him, while hiding behind the current backlash against the leftist media? Bitch you cookin?
Sarah Palin is a nasty person. Obama didn't attack her, he didn't go after her. Yet she spewed evil and nast things.
This is politics today. This is what we have to deal with.
This is what I saw coming. Obama/Clinton should have been the ticket. I knew that if Obama choose someone other that McCain would do something like this. Clinton should have been the vice-president. She got 18million votes and she deserved it. She is equal to Obama.
That would have been a sure fire winning ticket. If there was one. That was it.
Now we are in for the most dirty and nasty campaign season of them all.
The Republicans know that Obama will open criminal charges against them and look at their record the past 8 years with his typical fine comb analysis. So they will do anything to win.
by W126, Thu Aug 21, 2008 at 07:12:50 AM EDT
It's crystal clear. Obama needs a game changer and Hillary is it. No doubt in my mind.
Picking Hillary would strike the fear of God into the Republicans. She would immediately deliver half of the 20% of Dems who are holding out and, as the GOP base have already polarised like sheep around the most right wing candidate, there is very little downside.
Sure there are a few independents, who understandably won't be comfortable with it initially but ultimately Obama is the presidential candidate and Hillary will be his deputy.
If you're a woman who wants to preserve the right to make the most difficult choice you may have to make in your life, then Obama is your only option. If you're happy with a bunch of grey haired angry conservatives telling you that even if you get raped, you have to bear the baby to term then go ahead and vote for McCain because McCain has made it crystal clear that if he gets the chance to appoint a Supreme Court justice, Roe v Wade is dead and once Roe v Wade dies and a one day old embryo is considered to be a person, abortion will logically have to be banned in ALL circumstances. Fact. They will have police guarding the border to Canada with sonography equipment to prevent women crossing over for terminations. Welcome to a McCain presidency.
But it's not just hot button issues like abortion that are crucial indeed it's much bigger issues such as the economy. If you agree with Bush/McCain that tax cuts should go exclusively to the rich then please, vote for them. If you think tax cuts should go to the working and middle classes then Obama is your candidate and having Hillary as his deputy changes nothing.
The one downside to Hillary is the personal issues that exist between her/Bill and Obama. Can she really be trusted to advocate for him 100% and be his trusty attack dog as Lieberman and Romney would do for McCain. If not, he can't pick her. But I think she realises that this is her only chance to become president in the long term. If Obama loses, she will be blamed for it and the party will not touch her again.
I would still prefer Bayh but Clinton would spark a media frenzy that would steal the narrative for weeks and deliver the critical states of OH, MI and FL. It would be a bold choice and would demonstrate that Obama is big enough to work with someone who has previously assailed him mercilessly. If I were a McCain supporter I would want him to pick Sebelius. She's a great person but an ineffective speaker and people would not regard her as ready to be president in the way that Clinton so clearly is.