Napoleon's lesson for Hillary Clinton

Une armée marche à son estomac - (An Army marches on its stomach)

Napoleon knew that an army's success depends on logistics. However brave and dedicated the soldiers are, if they have no food they cannot march or fight. I studied this analogy early on in my military career, and it applies to the civilian/political world.

Senator Hillary Clinton has spent almost $1 million dollars a day to keep her expensive top-down campaign afloat. She has learned the hard way that she can't ignore a SINGLE contest left on the calendar, but how can she afford to competitively pay for staff in the 10 remaining locations? Her organization in TWO states at once (TX, OH) was barely enough to keep Obama from catching her in what should have been BIG HRC victories.

Andrew Romano makes a good point in his blog:

 It's not that money determines electoral outcomes. Obama massively outspent Clinton in Texas and Ohio and still lost the primaries; Clinton will likely win Pennsylvania, Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico despite the dinero differential. But pecuniary perceptions are important. "If Clinton is perceived to be in financial peril, she becomes a much less attractive investment for donors deciding where to give their money,"writes Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post. "By the same token, if Obama looks like the nominee, he is sure to vacuum up the campaign cash of fence sitters looking for a winner." As the clock ticks down, Clinton will have fewer chances to gain delegates and votes, and Obama will appear more and more inevitable. Wins in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6--hardly a sure thing, but possible--would only accelerate that process. All of which is to say that if Obama "looks like the nominee" at some point before the convention, Clinton's financial intake may flatline. In that case, she probably won't have the rainy-day money necessary to keep fighting (unless it's more of her own). Meaning that it won't matter what Bill has to say. The bank vault will have already spoken.

Hillary may have raised $20 million last month, but how much of that is General Election money from maxed out donors?

How much is left after she pays back all her outstanding debts, including countless cash-strapped schools (including CSUN, and her Illinois High School) that allowed her to hold rallies?

Eventually Mark Penn, Howard Wolfson, Mandy Grunwald, and the thousands of staffers below them will need some food to continue the fight.

I don't see her financial situation getting any better, as most of her donors have reached the legal limit. Obama has millions of small-scale donors that can keep on giving. HRC has connected with enough middle-class voters to keep her alive in some states, but why aren't they passionately supporting her with their checkbooks? That is a question that many undecided Super Delegates are asking.

Senator Obama may not get credit for a knockout. The cold reality of money in politics may disqualify Hillary before the final bell tolls.

Tags: Andrew Romano, HRC, Money, Napoleon, obama (all tags)

Comments

48 Comments

Time to donate!!

DUDE - now all the Clintonistas are going to donate!

Go ahead and make a donation, but the writing is already on the wall.

HRC is maxing out her ardent supporters in the blogosphere, but she isn't attracting many average-joe donations.

MyDD Clintonistas bring it on . . . her days are numbered!

Sorry I got a little pumped up there, but there is simply NO WAY for HRC to turn the money gap around. She can grow her voter base, but she can't grow her enthusiastic donor base.

The donor base is determined pretty much in the first month after Iowa/New Hampshire . . . she missed that window after Obama's record delegate/money month of February.

by FOB92 2008-04-05 11:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Time to donate!!

I know . . . I showed this to a buddy before I posted it . . . and he said NOOOO . . . you will get all the grannies to whip out their check books.

BUT I agree, it is too late. Tripp Jones said it well: http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articl es/2008/04/05/my_fellow_clintonites_its_ time_for_obama/

by Veteran75 2008-04-05 11:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Time to donate!!

Grannies?  You make me ashamed to be an Obama supporter.  There is so much age-related and woman-related trashing going on here today; it stinks and speaks horribly of my candidate's base of support.  As an older woman, would you rather not have me support BO?

by mady 2008-04-05 12:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Time to donate!!

I am sorry . . . that was out-of-line.

:o(

by Veteran75 2008-04-05 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Time to donate!!

Thank you.

by mady 2008-04-05 12:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Time to donate!!

I'm guessing the author intends concerns for the manner in which donations are being managed.

Average persons who use credit cards and allow the campaign to bill until November have been reported to overcharge, and to refuse to release individuals from their contractual obligation if they are in difficult financial strates.

Older women are sometimes struggling financially, and even members of the candidates own team have reported charges that will get them in trouble not only finacially with credit card companies but with FEC legislation.

Make donations, but do it on a monthly basis or you may regret it.

by URKnot 2008-04-05 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Time to donate!!

I don't understand, are you implying that older women are incapable of managing their campaign contributions, or am I reading this incorrectly?

by mady 2008-04-05 12:30PM | 0 recs
How condescending of you...

But since you mentioned it...

https://contribute.hillaryclinton.com/my pa.html?sc=2409

Now's a good time to help Hill win PA. :-)

by atdleft 2008-04-05 11:54AM | 0 recs
Spare change for HOPE

SIGN ME UP!!

Donate and get OBAMA gear at the same time!

http://store.barackobama.com/

by FOB92 2008-04-05 12:01PM | 0 recs
Whats most shocking
is Obama's inability to knock Hillary out of the race given his huge money advantage. Why couldn't he knock her out in OH and TX after having outspent her 3:1?
by linc 2008-04-05 11:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Whats most shocking

He won't knock her out. The DEM base that wasn't already loyal to her will slowly pull away.

Super Delegates don't see Ohio and Texas as HRC wins. They aren't wearing MyDD/HRC blinders, or DKOS/Obama blinders.

They saw Obama down BIG in those states, and they saw that his money can close the gap to a point that the delegates were split.

by Veteran75 2008-04-05 11:56AM | 0 recs
How did you get tapped into the
super delegate brain control mainframe? I thought it was impossible!
by linc 2008-04-05 12:07PM | 0 recs
What's more shocking is

 how the world did we get here??  Wasn't it Clinton who was supposed to run away with this nomination??  Back in late 2007 everyone, and I mean everyone (besides those great people of Iowa) was predicting a Clinton romp.

by hootie4170 2008-04-05 12:23PM | 0 recs
Since when were elections
ever determined by predictions and pollsters?
by linc 2008-04-05 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Since when were elections

The voters won't decide this. Super Delegate perceptions will. That is the sad truth.

by Veteran75 2008-04-05 12:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Whats most shocking

Obama did well.  He started out far behind, and in one election, erased her gain.

Obama won the Texas delegates.  

In Ohio, Hillary only won by about a 10% margin.  

She needs to do twice that in each of the upcoming states to just get even with Obama.

And this was before her Bosnia fabrications, her schedule mis-statements (she claimed to be at the Macedonia border and wasn't), and Columbia (her primary advisor and husband are supporting the Columbian president who violently suppresses union organizers).

Chances of doing this?  Not likely.  She's thrown her best at Obama already. And he rose even higher.  

Maybe she can do something really good?  She is fighting against herself:, her past, her husband, and her penchant for lying keep coming up.

That won't stop.

Save your money.

by Kiku 2008-04-05 12:28PM | 0 recs
OK
thanks for the advice. What's with all of the 'supposed to' comments from Obama supporters? So the candidate who has spent the most and has the momentum is not 'supposed to' win? I don't get it. This completely contradicts the idea that Clinton should have had this nomination wrapped up back in January when she 'had the money and momentum'. So which is it?
by linc 2008-04-05 12:36PM | 0 recs
Gee, I wonder

Could it be because Hillary has been campaigning in Pennsylvania for 15 years???

by Zoey 2008-04-05 12:41PM | 0 recs
Campaigning?
you me representing a well-liked administration? And what does that have to do with Texas and Ohio? You are confusing.
by linc 2008-04-05 03:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Whats most shocking

I love that this bunk keeps being repeated.

How many millions was her advantage in name-recognition worth?  It takes money to combat that advantage and to get one's own name and message out.

So he spends more...so what?  The myth of Obama's inability to knock her out being a major weakness is intentionally ignorant of Hillary's natural advantages because her last name happens to be "Clinton."

by freedom78 2008-04-05 06:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Napoleon's lesson for Hillary Clinton

As I have said, they are both strong candidates. Both can big, both can lose. Obama has the greater potential and represents the future of the party.

Any other man in any other year, HRC would be resting pretty in a beach now, having locked it up. Same for Sen. Obama.

by KathyM 2008-04-05 12:06PM | 0 recs
I encourage this

What needs to happen is for donations to step up while Clinton scales back her operation.  She has bills to pay, after all.

Huckabee ran his campaign on a Hot Pocket and a quarter he found on the street, and he was able to go the distance.  If Clinton gets rid of her ridiculously high-priced advisors (especially Penn; getting fired twice in one week would be his just deserts) and runs on her own merits vs. McCain rather than tearing down Obama vs. McCain, she can continue this all the way to June for all I care.

I would hope that she would donate at least some of her general election fund to the DNC to help fund the lower races on the ticket.

by Dracomicron 2008-04-05 12:09PM | 0 recs
Re: I encourage this

Serious question to Clinton supporters...What do you think of Hillary "loaning" her campaign 5 million instead of donating it with all the money her and Bill have?  I mean Romney gave his campaign 40 million.  I'm not asking this to be smart, I really just want to see where people stand on this.  Thanks

by hootie4170 2008-04-05 12:27PM | 0 recs
Re: I encourage this

I think it was technically a loan for FEC accounting purposes?

by Veteran75 2008-04-05 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: I encourage this

Where do campaigns get their money?

Most candidates pay for their campaigns by asking supporters to donate money. Candidates are also allowed to spend an unlimited amount of their own money.

From CNN

I know Romney spent close to 40 million on his own campaign.

by hootie4170 2008-04-05 12:46PM | 0 recs
First, she needs to pay her bills

A lot of small business owners and their employees are suffering because she won't pay the money she owes them. If you donate to Hillary Clinton, please also send a note asking her to pay the people she owes.

by Zoey 2008-04-05 12:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Napoleon's lesson for Hillary Clinton

Be careful how you donate.  If you use a credit card, there have been reports, documented by police records, of people who have had more than the donated amount charged AND more than the legally allowed amount processed through the campaign.

Some folks have had hundreds of dollars in extra charges added due to charges made when these things have to be undone, and it takes months to get the campaign's cooperation in helping this.

Also, if you run into finacial difficulties and you have made a committment, you are contractually required to continue to pay until the November deadline.  there is no getting out of that.  Your credit card will continue to bill unless the campaign releases you from your contractual obligation.

This is unheard of and has been a pattern documented from the earliest days of this campaign.  Most of Senator Clinton's donors are maxed out.

Her use of Mark Penn, as her chief strategist, is an unfortunate choice, and he may be advising her on economic strategies as well . . . this sort of practice is pretty consistent with his tactics in other forums.

by URKnot 2008-04-05 12:10PM | 0 recs
Helpful link

Here's the Wonkette article that corresponds to that.

http://wonkette.com/365959/hillary-campa ign-commits-credit-card-fraud-against-de lightful-lady

by Dracomicron 2008-04-05 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Napoleon's lesson for Hillary Clinton

P.S. Given Mark Penn's associations, my sense is that he will have more than enough to live on indefinitely, and even if all resources dried up he is truly a fatcat- an amoral one.

by URKnot 2008-04-05 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Napoleon's lesson for Hillary Clinton

Has anyone realized that her chances of winning are now listed as 5%?  Give donations by all means, but be aware that signing on til November is simply helping her to pay campaign debts that she is amassing in every state.  Also, you will mostly be funding Mark Penn: should he be rewarded for the manner in which he has conducted this campaign,and the results he has gotten?  Do you support his work overall?  How does his "career" square with your principles?

by URKnot 2008-04-05 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Napoleon's lesson for Hillary Clinton

Mark Penn has made $358,000 per month since last January.

by Zoey 2008-04-05 12:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Napoleon's lesson for Hillary Clinton

Enjoy gambling?  It's important to understand the odds.

What are the odds of Hillary winning, of donations being meaningful?

Hillary needs to win EACH of the next 10 states with a percentage of 60/40, or a 20% margin.  

How has she done in the previous elections?

Data taken from:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/democratic_vote_count.htm l

Here are the 50+% margin states:

Obama has won many states by wide MARGINS (not percentages): Hawaii (52%), DC (51.5%), Virgin Islands (82.3%), Idaho (62.3%), Alaska (50.5%).

Hillary has not won a single state with over a 50% margin.

Let's look at the 40+% margin:

Obama: Kansas (48.2%).

Hillary: Arkansas (43.8%)

Here's the 30+% margin:

Obama: Dems abroad (33.3%), Nebraska (35.4%), Illinois (31.9%), Georgia (35.3%), Minnesota (34.2%), Colorado (34.2%).

Hillary has not won any states in this range.

And the 20% margins:

Obama: Mississippi (24.5%), Wyoming (23.6%), Vermont (20.7%), Virginia (28.2%), Maryland (24.9%), Lousianna (21.8%), North Dakota (24.6%), South Carolina (28.9%).

Clinton: Oklahoma (23.6%)

And the 10% margins?

Obama: Wisconsin (17.3%), Alabama (14.4%), Utah (11.1%)

Clinton: Ohio (10.4%), Rhode Island (18%), New York (17.1%), Massachusetts (15.5%), Tennessee (13.5%)

And, just so Hillary people don't call me out on it, here are the under 10% margin categories:

Obama: Missouri (1.4%), Connecticut (4.1%),

Clinton: New Hampshire (2.6%), Texas (with Hillary's Limbaugh 9% of the voters) (3.5%), California (8.3%), New Jersey (9.9%), Arizon (8.0%), New Mexico (1.1%)

This makes the point: Obama wins by much higher margins across the US than Hillary, and Illinois wasn't even in the top ranks.

Problem: she has only won two states on this margin, Arkansas (her home state, and Oklahoma). And, that was when she was inevitable, and before Bosnia, Nafta, Ireland, not paying her bills, Watergate take 2.

The probablility of Hillary picking up higher margins?  Almost none.

Advise: donors, stop wasting your money

by Kiku 2008-04-05 12:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Napoleon's lesson for Hillary Clinton

I think she could raise $5 million if she sent an email saying that Mark Penn resigned.

Unfortunately for the DEM party, he needed to resign in FEB.

by Veteran75 2008-04-05 12:41PM | 0 recs
Is that really Howard Wolffson

I thought that that picture was of Jim Cramer.

Also good diary Vet. I am reccing it, but my fellow Obama supporters I am slightly ashsmed of you trying to push her out now. She still has the money to win in PA, and she is leading there.  Why would she drop out?  And pushing for her to drop out only solidifies the anti-Obama thoughts they have.  Senator Clinton is very smart and can gauge whether or not she should drop out.

by Student Guy 2008-04-05 12:43PM | 0 recs
Am I missing something?

Maybe I missed it somewhere, but I didn't see anywhere in his article where he called for her to drop out. He just said that he didn't understand why anyone would donate to a losing campaign and said that her financial situation may end her campaign.

by Zoey 2008-04-05 12:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Am I missing something?

I was referring to the commenters here (see upthread, where they basically insult Clinton supporters for donating)

by Student Guy 2008-04-05 12:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Is that really Howard Wolffson

Thank you . . . I DO NOT want HRC to drop out.

OBAMA needs her to stay in until JUN 3, so the DEMS can keep spotlight off McSame.

I just hope she keeps the attack ads up against McCain.

This next sentence may sound like heresy, but I think she WILL soften up her image so the KUMBAYA is complete by JULY.

by Veteran75 2008-04-05 12:48PM | 0 recs
And if she still has a chance to win

If she goes on a tear like she could get it close enough so super delegates will be more amenable to her arguments based on the fact that she did very well.

Yes I love the focus on her 3 am ad at McCain, though I saw McCain's reply ad last night on MSNBC (I really like Rachel Maddow I think I have a crush on her (due to her intelligence) and she was hosting Countdown) and it made no sense (I will lower taxes vote for me)

by Student Guy 2008-04-05 12:56PM | 0 recs
Re: And if she still has a chance to win

Yeah . . . I dig Maddow. It is sooo fun to watch her pick on Buchanan.

Speaking of Buchanan  . . . where has he been?

by Veteran75 2008-04-05 01:02PM | 0 recs
I am hoping that he got

put on unoffical probation for what he wrote on his blog (in defense of whitey) or something that is beyond even the Hillaryis44 crowd.

by Student Guy 2008-04-05 01:20PM | 0 recs
Re: And if she still has a chance to win

Yeah . . . I dig Maddow. It is sooo fun to watch her pick on Buchanan.

Speaking of Buchanan  . . . where has he been?

by Veteran75 2008-04-05 01:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Is that really Howard Wolffson
SG. Good point. It is dangerous to use that meme against her.
She reverts to  type and plays the victim card. Let's cut her oygyen away slowly and slowly. It will be fun to watch.
by KathyM 2008-04-05 12:55PM | 0 recs
eeeh

Please don't use language like that you make it sound like she is being killed.  Lets run a good clean fair campaign and see how things end up.

by Student Guy 2008-04-05 12:57PM | 0 recs
REC

Rec this thing, as all of the rec diaries have the same slant. Get some of Obama's voice heard on My Direct Democracy!

CRASH THE GATE!!

by FOB92 2008-04-05 12:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Napoleon's lesson for Hillary Clinton

She is also wasting an enormous amount of money and encouraging others to do so.

A lot of her donors are locked in til the election, and her continuing to run until she has exhausted every state is extraordinarily wasteful.

McCain is laying the groundwork as the Republican nominee and he is beginning to gain attention and test his best messages.  A lot of Democratic effort and resources are being wasted in a fruitless attempt by a candidate who is completely in denial about how badly she has managed her campaign and is Knee-capping the Democratic frontrunner.

She appears, more and more, to be working for Republicans, and if we lose this we have only Hillary to blame, because Mark Penn is also involved in the McCain campaign and he may be running her on purpose to help McCain, and if she can't see that she is the worst nominee we've ever had, because she has allowed herself to be massively manipulated by a lobbyist with a foot in both camps in a U.S. Presidential primary.

Thank God Obama came along or we would never had a chance to see the lobbyist drek that has infiltrated our government.

by URKnot 2008-04-05 12:59PM | 0 recs
Napoleon's lesson? - No land war in Asia?

Falling victim to a classic blunder:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUee1WvtQ ZU

by johnnyappleseed 2008-04-05 06:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Napoleon's lesson for Hillary Clinton

Wow, the Clintons made $100 million?  Guess that's not enough to fund her own campaign, though.  

Are candidates limited to $2300 too, or can they spend as much money as they need to?  Wasn't Romney spending his own money?

by Kiku 2008-04-06 01:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Napoleon's lesson for Hillary Clinton

Romney "loaned" it to his campaign.

by Veteran75 2008-04-06 01:36PM | 0 recs

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