Biden vs Palin by Rasmussen: Who Came Off Better?
by vcalzone, Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 09:20:52 AM EDT
Rasmussen put out a new poll featuring favorability numbers for the VP candidates after the debate. Conventional wisdom was that Palin was much more likable and that Biden was nice, but dull and people didn't respond to him. And the question of "Who won the debate?" showed a conflicted view. He won by a somewhat slim margin of 45%-37%. But when you look at the difference in favorability from a poll taken on September 24, you understand what Joe was trying to do.
Biden had a lot to gain in terms of favorability. I maintained that he had extremely high uncertain numbers that would almost assuredly go up rather than down, and that not only would he win the "ready to be VP" test, but he would emerge as the winner in favorability as well. So what do Rasmussen's head to head numbers show?
On this table, I count the difference on each level, counting a rise in favorable ratings and a drop in unfavorable ratings as positive.
This clearly shows what happened. 13% total difference towards a more favorable view of Biden (double counting, but whatever), and 4% of a total net loss for Palin. If you want to weigh it by giving the changes on both extremes double value, it gets even better for Biden, becoming -2% to +20%.
Granted, this top polling happened before the Couric incident, but it still captures the net result. Granted, you can argue that the debate made a difference from her standing immediately beforehand, but that is not the point. The point is that Biden went from reasonably popular to overwhelmingly popular in the last week and a half, while Palin actually got a little LESS popular. Remember: The ONLY metric Sarah Palin can win on is favorability.
Knowing that, the question of did better isn't even up for discussion.