I'm increasingly convinced that actual policy positions have little to do with your end support. So long as you look 'presidential,' and can communicate in terms that the average person can understand without mincing your words, you'll do fine.
It's how the republicans get away with being so radical, after all.
10% announcment bounce, let's take 4% from HRC and 4% from obama, and 2% from "undecided"
Using the Ipso poll, that makes it:
So it would put Gore in a statistical tie for first with Clinton. The question then becomes how dependent Gore is upon big contributors to fill in the massive money gap with Clinton and Obama. (does he still have a war chest from his pre-retirement days? I doubt it, but I don't know, either.).
Kerry carried 88% of the black vote in 2004. Even neglecting that the margin of error for crosstabs in exit polls is pretty significant, a 7% swing in 11% of the electorate amounts to a loss of less than a million votes. And that's assuming the difference isn't largely a phantom effect, which it likely is.
Until the Republicans start winking at racist whites, the Dems will continue to win approximately 90% of the black vote in Presidential elections--it's an effect that has held pretty steadily for a long time.
The Democratic party of 1974 was way more conservative than the contemporary Democratic party--especially considering that most of the committee chairs were million year old Dixiecrat idiots who were very hawkish.