The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obama Win

Looking past the current wave of momentum, which we have seen all too often change course in a split second, and has been hard to quantify, let's see where we are where it counts. Playing around with the CNN delegate calculator(http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/d elegate.counter/):

Assuming the following (which I think would be likely agreed upon as an 'optimistic Clinton scenario'); these are delegate splits:

Guam) Even (2/2)
NC) Obama +5 (60/55)
IN) Clinton +8 (40/32)
WV) Clinton +12 (20/8)
KY) Clinton +21 (36/15)
OR) Obama +6 (29/23)
PR) Clinton +25 (40/15)
MT) Obama +2 (9/7)
SD) Obama +3 (9/6)

Now, given the above, which like I said amounts to what I think is a reasonable optimistic Clinton scenario, that still leaves her short roughly 240 delegates away from the nomination. This includes all future superdelegate endorsements. Obama is only roughly 75 superdelegate endorsements away at this point.

This is worth repeating: even in this optimistic Clinton scenario, Obama needs only reach 75 more superdelegates. At the rate he's been dropping them off, I'd say the time for the Obama campaign to really put up has come. If they can continue the current rate of superdelegate endorsements -- which has only increased with time -- then they may just be able to hunker down and power through, regardless of outside circumstances.

So, from this point, if the above scenario generally holds, Obama needs roughly 75 superdelegates. Clinton needs roughly 230-240. So, from now on, the ratio needs to greatly increase for the Clinton camp to catch up. The countdown is on.

Tags: delegates, Democratic nomination, obama, superdelegates (all tags)

Comments

83 Comments

Obama will get an automatic

3 superdelegates from Illinois next week.

by puma 2008-05-01 06:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama will get an automatic

Senator Clinton will get about 3 or 4. These are all add-ons.

by lizardbox 2008-05-01 06:24PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

Does your figure consider the Add-ons? Cause Obama will get just about half of those.

by lizardbox 2008-05-01 06:24PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

They do not. They only include states as called according to the CNN delegate calculator. If these numbers don't include add-ons, then the 75 number has to include add-ons as well. If Obama's already guaranteed half of those what is it 76 add-ons?...

by VAAlex 2008-05-01 06:27PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

It's not guaranteed, but add-ons generally go to whoever won the state, especially caucus states.  If Obama wins at least half but at most all of the delegates from the states he won or is likely to win, he'll get 27-37 more delegates.  He could also get up to 5 or so from states Clinton won with multiple add-ons like California and maybe a couple undeclared add-ons who have already been selected.

A 40/15 delegate split from Puerto is really optimistic for Clinton since the poll done there had it 50-37 Clinton.

by CA Pol Junkie 2008-05-01 07:00PM | 0 recs
The Countdown

It's worth noting that no delegate has yet voting, and that Superdelegates can change their minds at any time.  This contest will not end the instant one candidate hits a "magic number".  It is also worth pointing out that this "magic number" will change once FL and MI are seated, and it appears Barack has been completely outmanuevered in MI due to his short-term focus on preventing revotes.

One of two things will make this contest end:

(1) Convention in Denver
(2) A massive defection of Superdelegates from one candidate to the other

Until those two things happen, it is anyone's game.

by bobbank 2008-05-01 06:24PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown

Agreed. Superdelegates can defect to Senator Obama en masse.

by lizardbox 2008-05-01 06:28PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown
Har-har!
You is funnier than Grocho Marx.
by johnnygunn 2008-05-01 06:49PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown

If you believe Senator McCaskill and Mr. Super, it's actually a likely scenario that Super Delegates will move en masse to Obama once he has clinched the pledged delegate majority and/or after June 3rd.

by CA Pol Junkie 2008-05-01 07:09PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown

equally likely voters will move en mass away from the pary as a result.

Possibly with enough time for SDs to change their mind come convention time.

We won't be winning with Obama.

by DTaylor 2008-05-01 07:47PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown

No sir.  Nothing is funnier than Groucho Marx.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-05-01 07:27PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown

Ah, the audacity of hope.

by Montague 2008-05-01 09:28PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown

McAuliffe says it ends in June. Did he go off script or his meds?

by RLMcCauley 2008-05-01 06:35PM | 0 recs
So are you saying you would support

Hillary staying in until the convention even if Barak has more than the 2024 delegates pledged?

Hoping that he does something that makes supers jump ship?

by ameridad 2008-05-01 06:39PM | 0 recs
Re: So are you saying you would support

Thats what I think.

by DTaylor 2008-05-01 07:47PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

I can seen that you're in a dreamy state of mind when you made this Diary...

Obama has no chance in the General Election!

by SHIBAM8P 2008-05-01 06:26PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

The math's there. That's the bottom line -- once 75 more superdelegates endorse for Obama, it's effectively over -- even in an optimistic Clinton scenario.

by VAAlex 2008-05-01 06:27PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

It's over without two states being counted.  So very , very lame.

by MidwestTracker 2008-05-01 06:31PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

The Dem establishment in both states chose not to have their votes counted.  They were warned, and chose to ignore the warnings.  So there's nobody to blame but them.

by Cycloptichorn 2008-05-01 06:53PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

No we could Blame Dean, Pelosi, Obama....

by DTaylor 2008-05-01 07:48PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

Yes you could.  And that would make you naive, uninformed, and gullible.

by RockvilleLiberal2 2008-05-02 02:47AM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

Don't forget delusional.

by PSUdan 2008-05-02 03:07AM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

Or maybe I would still be an American who believes in democracy.

I will not sell my values for you.

by DTaylor 2008-05-02 09:56AM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

Seriously, give it a rest you and your General Election. She lost. You can't just tell everyone he can't win the GE but I can, and think they'll just hand it to you. You have to earn it. Yes, the superdelegates are really that dumb.

by lizardbox 2008-05-01 06:30PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

I'm still not voting for Obama; and I still think you're all dreaming...

by SHIBAM8P 2008-05-01 06:34PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

I am not supporting Clinton. I would've. Up until she used Bin Laden in her ad. She's a certified Republican.

by lizardbox 2008-05-01 06:35PM | 0 recs
Troll speak

Your last sentence is a lie.

Please refrain from posting dishonest comments, otherwise someone might think you are a troll.

Thanks!

by SluggoJD 2008-05-01 06:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Troll speak

I'm no troll. But seriously, Clinton supporters have gone absolutely mad! Some of the shit she pulled off is indefensible by any measure under any circumstance. Makes you wonder who's been drinking the Kool-aid. I know a republican line of attack when I see it. I remember a day when we all defended against it. But shit, Fox is fair and balanced now.    

by lizardbox 2008-05-01 06:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Troll speak

Then why did you post a lie?

by SluggoJD 2008-05-01 06:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Troll speak

What lie?

by lizardbox 2008-05-01 06:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Troll speak

You said "She's a certified Republican."

That is a lie.  No ifs, ands, buts, yada yada yada.

Of course you know this.  Yet you said it anyways.

by SluggoJD 2008-05-01 07:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Troll speak

You sound like a troll.

Didn't Monsieur Obama go on Fox first??

by johnnygunn 2008-05-01 06:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Troll speak

When was an Obama surrogate used in a Fox promo claiming fox to be "Fair and Balanced"?

by lizardbox 2008-05-01 06:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Troll speak

Didn't Monsieur Obama go on Fox first??

by johnnygunn 2008-05-01 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Troll speak

When was an Obama surrogate used in a Fox promo claiming fox to be "Fair and Balanced"?

by lizardbox 2008-05-01 07:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Troll speak

Gotcha!

by johnnygunn 2008-05-01 07:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Troll speak

No, Bill Clinton did.

by interestedbystander 2008-05-01 10:38PM | 0 recs
And by the way...

I'm a Clinton Supporter, and I'm quite sane.

I want the economy to be more like it was in 1999.

I want universal health care, not health care that leaves millions uninsured.  Is that crazy?

I want gas prices to come down, and I think it's great to make up the revenue by forcing oil companies to pay more.  Nuts?

I want a candidate who can win back Ohio and Florida.

I want a candidate who doesn't listen to crap like "God damn America" for 20 years, and then suddenly condemn such stuff only when there was no other option.  Insane?

Now go run along!

by SluggoJD 2008-05-01 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: And by the way...

I'm a Clinton Supporter, and I'm quite sane.
[That's a good thing]

I want the economy to be more like it was in 1999.
[You'll need an act of God to get venture capital companies to once again invest in companies that don't sell shit]

I want universal health care, not health care that leaves millions uninsured.  Is that crazy?
[Absolutely bananas if you ask me. Crazy Democrat!]

I want gas prices to come down, and I think it's great to make up the revenue by forcing oil companies to pay more.  Nuts?
[Over the top. Yes. We. Can. Force oil companies to pay more without raising gas prices to compensate for us making them pay more. Ha!]

I want a candidate who can win back Ohio and Florida.
[Then be nice to our presumptive nominee.]

I want a candidate who doesn't listen to crap like "God damn America" for 20 years, and then suddenly condemn such stuff only when there was no other option.  Insane?
[bill cheated.]

Now go run along!
[clap clap, point point]

by lizardbox 2008-05-01 07:09PM | 0 recs
Re: And by the way...

Wow, talk about burying oneself.

by SluggoJD 2008-05-01 07:15PM | 0 recs
Re: And by the way...

That didn't make sense.

by lizardbox 2008-05-01 07:19PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

Gee, what Republican says that Social Security is staying the way it is, no privatization?  

What Republican is putting forth a universal healthcare proposal?  

What Republican is going to return the tax setup to how it was during 1992-1999?

What Republican has given a timeline for getting our troops out of Iraq?

by Montague 2008-05-01 09:42PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

You mean if it's Obama v. McCain you're not voting for Obama?

by RLMcCauley 2008-05-01 06:36PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

pretty sure I disagree with your numer ;)

read my sig some time.

by TruthMatters 2008-05-01 06:27PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

We get to different numbers but roughly the same ratio.

by VAAlex 2008-05-01 06:30PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

Heh.  My calculations match yours precisely.  You must be using pollster.com for future primaries, a total of 45 add-ons for Obama, and 5 in the Pelosi Club.

by CA Pol Junkie 2008-05-01 06:59PM | 0 recs
re

2209 is needed to nominate. FL/MI will be at the convention

by rossinatl 2008-05-01 06:28PM | 0 recs
Re: re

um... can you show me where the DNC says 2209? because they are the ones who said the nominee only needed 2,024

anyone know when the DNC changed this?

by TruthMatters 2008-05-01 06:32PM | 0 recs
Re: re

It would change if Florida and Michigan were to be counted.

The poster that you responded to feels that they will, increasing the number of delegates needed for nomination. This point is, of course, highly debatable.

by arkansasdemocrat 2008-05-01 06:48PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates

what about Florida and Michigan?

by alright 2008-05-01 06:28PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates

Their split will be favorable to Obama.

by lizardbox 2008-05-01 06:30PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates

What, another Affirmative Action?

by SHIBAM8P 2008-05-01 06:35PM | 0 recs
TR speaks for itself.

by RLMcCauley 2008-05-01 06:37PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates

You should be banned.

by lizardbox 2008-05-01 06:37PM | 0 recs
I would troll-rate this if I could

But my rating powers mysteriously vanished a few days ago

by MILiberal 2008-05-01 06:57PM | 0 recs
Re: I would troll-rate this if I could

No worries.  I did it for you.  :-)

by ProgressiveDL 2008-05-01 07:30PM | 0 recs
Re: I would troll-rate this if I could

Yea, gotta back you up on that one. This kind of language is unacceptable for the supporters of either of the people running.

by zcflint05 2008-05-01 08:03PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates

SHIBAM8P has racked up a bunch of hidden comments along these lines.  This calls for an admin ban, if any are paying attention.

by Skaje 2008-05-02 05:12AM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates

They're not included in these numbers because as of now they have no delegates. That may change in the future.

by VAAlex 2008-05-01 06:31PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates

so this diary is useless, thanks.

by alright 2008-05-01 06:33PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates

The MI & FL legislatures suck.

by RLMcCauley 2008-05-01 06:37PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates

Well, hey, what can I say except that this works under the rules in place now. If those rules change, if MI and FL are counted, then the math changes.

by VAAlex 2008-05-01 06:39PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates

FYI, under the "rules" in place right now, excluding Michigan and Florida is an option; it's not mandatory.  

Also, it's starting to look like the party may not have the power to strip those states of Superdelegates.  

by BPK80 2008-05-01 06:41PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates

Well, if the numbers change in the future, then the needed superdelegates would obviously change somewhat in Clinton's favor.

by VAAlex 2008-05-01 06:43PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

Yeah buddy.....Obama taking on Clinton, McCain, the GOP Machine and the MSM and is still fighting for what's right...Great news, I love math!!!

by hootie4170 2008-05-01 06:31PM | 0 recs
Close

Results from Oregon, South Dakota, and Montana are a bit suspicious but otherwise this is close to a realistic outcome.  

This assumes of course that the nomination ends up entirely based on The United 48 States.  

by BPK80 2008-05-01 06:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Close

Well, like I said, this is an 'optimistic' Clinton scenario. They're off in that this would be an optimistic Clinton win, not necessarily realistic.

And yes, based on the current rules MI & FL are excluded from the count.

by VAAlex 2008-05-01 06:42PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

But VA -

What about delegates who may waver if Obama does poorly in the coming primaries?  If Indiana goes Clinton +10% and NC only goes Obama by 3% or 4%, surely some of the supers already in the Obama camp will have second thoughts.

by johnnygunn 2008-05-01 06:47PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

Sure, that's a scenario, but it doesn't seem too likely. Defections on the whole have been pretty rare, and they've all been one-way: Clinton to Obama.

by VAAlex 2008-05-01 06:52PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

I suspect that will change if there is a big Obama loss on Tuesday.
Most supers have a clear memory of McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis.

Also, Obama delegates do not have to switch to Clinton - they can return to being uncommitted.  In fact, they are unlikely to advertise their new uncommitted status until a certain critical mass is reached.

by johnnygunn 2008-05-01 06:58PM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

They also have a pretty clear memory of losing the house and senate under Bill Clinton.  Why does this matter - this election is about power consolidation for the DNC in order to push a progressive agenda.  Whether Hillary supporters want to admit it or not, Obama has coattails and the DNC will use them.  What good is it to have a nominee with negs in the 50's and the inability to help downticket races?

Keep in mind that once Obama is the nominee, and this will happen, Hillary will campaign for him vigorously.

by RockvilleLiberal2 2008-05-02 02:54AM | 0 recs
Fuzzy Math

Your math, by my calculations, is off a bit.

I checked barackobama.com (a haunt I don't visit very often) and found that he currently claims 1742 delegates. In the contests to come, you award him 181 in the remaining contests.

That makes 1923.

That makes him 102 superdelegates shy of the nomination.

Again using Obama's numbers, Clinton has 1600 delegates. Your analysis awards her 229 delegates in the coming contests.

Total: 1829, or 196 SDS shy of nomination.

Advantage still Obama, but a bit more rosy for Clinton.

Again, these are Barack Obama's numbers.

by arkansasdemocrat 2008-05-01 06:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Fuzzy Math

Yeah, this was rough fast math. Say between 75 and 100 or so. It's hard to nail down exactly because you can't predict defections, etc.

by VAAlex 2008-05-01 07:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Fuzzy Math

True, but the diarist is forgetting add-on delegates, which are largely automatic at this point. Projected add-ons at demconwatch bring the necessary total for Obama down to around 55, and Clinton to around 160 with this scenario.

by elrod 2008-05-01 07:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Fuzzy Math

Maybe. We don't really know that. It's not an automatic process. We'll know more about most of the add-on delegates by the end of May.

by arkansasdemocrat 2008-05-01 07:13PM | 0 recs
this is how it will work...

Candidate  Delegates Superdelegates Total
Obama         1556          249        1805
Clinton     1515          280        1795
Edwards      32           --          32
Uncomm.      55           --          55
Remaining   408           320         728
    Delegates Needed: 2208

So Sen. Obama needs (2208-1805)=  403 out of the remaining 728

And Sen Clinton needs (2208-1795) =  413 out of the remaining 728 super + pledged delegates.

As per your calculations, Sen. Clinton will get 229 out of the remaining 408 pledged delegates, and Sen. Obama will get 179 out of remaining 408 pledged delegates.

Thus, Sen Obama needs (403-179) = 224 out of the remaining 320 super delegates.

And Sen. Clinton needs (413-220) =  193 out of the remaining 320 super delegates.

The wild cards are the 55 uncommitted MI delegates, and the 32 Edwards delegates.  If you assign all the uncommitted MI delegates to Sen. Obama, then he will need 224-55 = 169 super delegates.  If you assign the 32 Edwards delegates to Sen. Clinton, then she needs 193-32 = 161 superdelegates.

Thus, a 1:1 superdelegate breakdown may favor Sen. Clinton.

Have a nice day =)

by SevenStrings 2008-05-01 07:07PM | 0 recs
Re: this is how it will work...

Your current delegate totals are wrong.  Thus the rest is off as well.

by politicsmatters 2008-05-01 07:10PM | 0 recs
Oh really ?

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

look at the 50 state total... you are running a 50 state strategy, arent you

by SevenStrings 2008-05-01 07:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Oh really ?

Oh, you're including FL (where he didn't campaign) and MI (where he wasn't on the ballot and got no delegates) which the DNC doesn't include.

Sorry, thought you were using DNC sanctioned contests -- you know, the ones the party accepts.

by politicsmatters 2008-05-01 07:23PM | 0 recs
the party will accept whatever the RBC says =)

by SevenStrings 2008-05-01 07:37PM | 0 recs
Re: this is how it will work...

Well, your delegate total isn't in line with current party rules -- MI & FL, I'm assuming is what you're using -- do not count. So, going from the numbers as the rules stand now, the above is still correct.

by VAAlex 2008-05-02 07:05AM | 0 recs
Re: The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obam

By and large, the group that matters most at this point -- the uncommitted superdelegates, who are likely to hold the balance of power -- still seem to view their decision the way the Obama campaign would like them to see it. They suggest that they are more sympathetic to the argument that they should follow the will of the voters as expressed by the delegates amassed by the candidates when the primary season is done rather than following Mrs. Clinton's admonitions to select the candidate they think would best be able to defeat Senator John McCain and the Republicans in November.

"It's about the numbers, and the numbers are the numbers," said Chris Redfern, the chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party and an uncommitted superdelegate. "It's not about hand-wringing. And Senator Obama has the lead."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/02/us/pol itics/02delegates.html?_r=1&pagewant ed=print&oref=slogin

by politicsmatters 2008-05-01 07:09PM | 0 recs
Obama is actually pretty close to this nomination.

He just needs 75 superdelegates on average from now until June 3rd.

by puma 2008-05-01 07:10PM | 0 recs

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