The Countdown: About 75 Superdelegates to Obama Win
by VAAlex, Thu May 01, 2008 at 06:20:40 PM EDT
Looking past the current wave of momentum, which we have seen all too often change course in a split second, and has been hard to quantify, let's see where we are where it counts. Playing around with the CNN delegate calculator(http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/d elegate.counter/):
Assuming the following (which I think would be likely agreed upon as an 'optimistic Clinton scenario'); these are delegate splits:
Guam) Even (2/2)
NC) Obama +5 (60/55)
IN) Clinton +8 (40/32)
WV) Clinton +12 (20/8)
KY) Clinton +21 (36/15)
OR) Obama +6 (29/23)
PR) Clinton +25 (40/15)
MT) Obama +2 (9/7)
SD) Obama +3 (9/6)
Now, given the above, which like I said amounts to what I think is a reasonable optimistic Clinton scenario, that still leaves her short roughly 240 delegates away from the nomination. This includes all future superdelegate endorsements. Obama is only roughly 75 superdelegate endorsements away at this point.
This is worth repeating: even in this optimistic Clinton scenario, Obama needs only reach 75 more superdelegates. At the rate he's been dropping them off, I'd say the time for the Obama campaign to really put up has come. If they can continue the current rate of superdelegate endorsements -- which has only increased with time -- then they may just be able to hunker down and power through, regardless of outside circumstances.
So, from this point, if the above scenario generally holds, Obama needs roughly 75 superdelegates. Clinton needs roughly 230-240. So, from now on, the ratio needs to greatly increase for the Clinton camp to catch up. The countdown is on.