I don't see it as affecting our situation that much.
That is, I think the potential for getting
into people's cellphone holds greater promise
than getting them back to their PC and away
from the other voters around them..
The south that voted for Bush was exurbia -
and the enclaves in Florida that want
government to stay away from nearly unbridled
Large parts of the south were untouched
by the recession. Particularly exurbia,
My point about focussing the study here
down to regions shows how
the rural vote went all over to Bush,
but he won the south by winning the perimeter
around the cities, and about half
of the interior of the cities.
thats a black vote. Tavis smiley is real.
Deal with it.
Another thing: the idea of 'regionalism'.
Yes, the south will move together as a voting
block, but its a cry from independence
of oppressive corporatism.
The south is winnable. Right now, the
Great Backlash Narrative is still focussed
squarely against the democrats, the nerve
of that move should impress you -
GOP in full control and yet they +will+
hang an albatross on the neck of
the Democrats. FLORIDA WILL go harder
right, and be unwinnable if the Dems
Dean is NOT POPULAR here.
He barely won 3rd place in South Carolina.
What we need to be aware of, when we're
at this juncture is the sheer need
for military thinking - the very survival
of the party is at stake. The GOP has
designs to change the rules of the senate.
And then they'll have power over the
When I wrote about the dying donkey
no-one listend to me. Then the GOP blew
the freaking doors off the Party.
Now I'm writing that if we choose
an incorrect strategy - and an incorrect
chairman of the DNC the party
will be gone, for certain.
No independent / free press. No audits
on elections. No opposition parties
in power +anywhere+. No congress,
senate, presidency, diplomatic corps -
1. Discount the "states" view since
to win the elections we need popular wins,
and they're cross boundary. Base political unit
for the study should be 4 or so chunks
of the state, macro scale, or the counties
of all states. (index them by state name, county name.)
2. Treat the factors of the study as independent.
GOP have laid claim to far too many generalisms
in the south to identify their party, IE,
the flag, GBN, etc. to be trying to defeat them
by focussing on attacking the hologram
they put in your face. Look for the platform
Do that, and you'll see a new map appear..
The south can be won, its loss
is a reflection of the ideal Zell Miller
laid out in "national party no more".
It isn't white. Its black folk in McMansions,
its mexicans who thought kerry was a sissy..
and its just an unprecedented grassroots
they have here... built from the christian
coalitions that are both black, and white.
Face reality that the donkey is dead
in South, look carefully and see if its
terminally ill in the north, midwest, and
The only way out in my view is a totally
new party. And one that specifically excludes
the control mechanisms that are desperately
attempting to be claimed by elite groups of people.
The south uses the 'blogosphere' like no-ones
business. This is why you have to cross boundaries. Florida was affected by Atlanta,
But those people work back towards
church, and they're connected to real people.
The 'blogosphere' for the democrats is
disconnected. It has to have a way not only
to deal with the world (really, most bloggers
are just bad reporters doing a reporter's job
that's not already being done..)
and it has to be part of a world view.
no unity. no strength.
do the study again with the above,and
you'll see Bush is really blowing the doors
off most of the democratic runners
because he's allied to a grassroots
movement that simply bests the democrats
despite their rather vocal
and moneyed holdings.
The main post concludes its platform study
by zoning in on 'electability'.
Perot Helped Bush
The lines are ideological
The south will not be won
If you look at the failed battle plan of
Fredericksburg, in the civil war,
you may recall two dissenting union
generals that tried to reverse
US Grant's drive across the river.
The new reinforcements won't help them
Their defense lines are soft
The south can be defeated by force of number
The ragtags banded together quickly
The defense lines were hard as stone
Men fighting for independence hide well
As such, the Union army was slaughtered.
Man after man fell, trying to get the pontoon
bridge up - first by sharpshooters,
then crossing. Finally the union army
was laid waste at the foot of
the lines of the rebels, crashing
like waves on solid stone as they
perished in the onslaught of carefully
laid out shot and ball launched
at them from behind stone field walls.
Newt did a great study of Grant.
I have yet to look at it but I'm looking
forward to it.
Campaigns are war. The dems did run a
pro-gay marriage candidate during a
fierce and bloody overseas war.
The insurgents probably helped them more
than they hurt them... seeing where I'm going
Here's the thing. This analysis could be
1. The base statistical unit is Exurbia/
metroplexes. Not states.
2. Bring in platform drivers as the base
unit of your third party analysis
(ie, perot financial vs. perot social. etc.)
Correct for Disintermediating effects
shake well, and ad <-- no typo a twist of lime.
Or as that epic song by tool .. "I know the pieces fit"
You've done a great job with demographics. Thats
one of the reasons I truly enjoy reading you.
I happen to come from a math background
(I don't really have a brain for math, but
after Adv. calculus in Grad school, and
two years of graduate research I finally
figured out how to trick ye olde grey
matter into a semblance of accuracy..
so I have a tendency to say 'I come
from a math background' even though
my PhD is still out there unfinished..
I +will+ finish it.. I +will+ finish it!)
Here's what you need.
You got demographics.
You correctly identified 3rd party trending.
Your causality on this trending is excellent.
(anti-corporatism, anti-status quo, etc.)
Here's your mistake: you don't love your
enemy enough. (in other words, it ain't
just insider vs. outsider..)
"conservatism being a force that relies on pure theory, faith-based worldviews, and that supports status-quo institutions such as corporations and the media."
Look around you. Libertarianism is driving conservatism, and its not just a force that
relies on pure theory.
Its a force that relies on breaking the backs
of people who can vote against their own
self interest, purely because it feels right.
Look around. The Internet is a purely
libertarian space, and its defining and
shaping their lives far more rapidly and
completely than government ever will be.
This is not to say its technocratic.
Its not. Its a sort of desperately needed
social tribalism that values us, instead
of turning on the damn evening news.
I live in Georgia. We are now almost
the new texas. Third parties come here
to die not because conservatism is
'faith based' or a 'force that relies
on pure theory' that defeats it every
time (that analysis could only be borne
from a place where conservatism itself
is a theory - conservatism is much deeper
in the south, and much more accepted.).
Third parties die here because
there is nowhere on this planet that
wishes federalism would die.
It ain't liberal.
Add that into the equation and now
what do you get.
1. A confederacy desperate for things like
tort reform, economic independence,
competitive agribusiness - red states
ready to go deep.
2. An energized base in the states where
your trendlines line up - California
isn't looking for something new, they're
looking for something that +works+.
3. A true attack on the money-wasting, money-
laundering lobbies that clog down the process.
And finally. Disintermediation.
This is a force that goes beyond words.
We are participating, casting our voice
into the cosmic fugue. Newt Gingrich
said "the internet is basically republican"
Don't discount his words! His ideas have
driven that party to victory. What
he's doing is laying claim not
to theory - but the raw force of history -
which is driving us back to American,
Go to Williamsburg before you finish this
piece, walk into the courthouse and just
listen to the clerk of court go on his riff.
It takes about 30 minutes. But it will
reaally open your eyes.
The investment bankers that propped up
the Enron debacle got off scot free,
and the guy who had the ties to the Enron/Investment bankers - was found with a bullet through his
skull a mile down the road from his home.
Tauzin was the red faced idiot that made sure
no-one really knew what mark to market,
derivatives, and SPE transaction accounting
This is widely used by Advertising firms.
Everyone gets off scot free, DeGrasso,
from the NYSE -
MCI, light sentences for Fastow and his
Tauzin made sure he made a lot of heat
and noise, but he played THE role
in getting them all off the hook.
Dean was a centrist embroiled in a radical
campaign experiment. He had the nerve to see
it would work, and it did.
That changed everything this year.
My analysis is that the base Dean drew up
kept the election from turning into
That said, the gay lobby is totally and
completely screwed as far as political
power right now, and they know it.
They had alot of people controlling media
placement, and in the TV industry and
1 billion dollars later, the realization is
dawning that this free blog out here in
cyberspace is drawing more firepower than
the quarter billion big gay al's big gay
boatride set up for them to spend on
If I could, the changing media landscape
should play into this. Dean is a media
babe in the woods in alot of regard.
I noticed that there are now goodly
spikes on films released for DVD and
people are making investments into
HD tv. There's a plant going online in
South Korea that will make the element
of the HD TV in mass production , alot
less expensive than it is now (assuming
we find the missing trillium..>:) ..
and this trend will only continue.
So here on the one hand you've got a terry mcauliffe type strategy, heavily dependent
on broadcast media and fat cat lobbies.
You can ask Ken Mehlmann if that isn't
a big gay world..
Then on the other hand, you've got the
libertarian .. YES! libertarian!!
world of the internet.
I vote for libertarian.
Dean gets it. He's brash, but then again,
so's MyDD and Kos and a host of others.
Dean deserves DNC chair.
But he's got to be free of the wierdos
around him right now.. If I don't
see signs that he's blown loose
from all the cheeseheads that ruined
him (and this does not count trippi!,
he's a special case!!) we're not
going to get him.
I think Roy Barnes can win you 16 electoral votes.
I know this is a radical proposition, but Barnes
can negotiate with Zell and cut into the Red State
Phenomenon. Barnes and Zell get along, but Barnes
is much more moderate and also quite frankly he's
got good organizational skills, very good
executive skills. I think Barnes should
run Vice Chair.
And I think we should put our money where
our mouth is, as a party, and embrace an Instant
Run off Vote for our own party chair!!
Rosenberg has been spoken highly of.
Vilsack out, means that the votes will divide
for the rest. Dean is in front whether he likes
it or not.
I am lighting a candle under the virgin
mary today for Kerry to bring his team over
We need Dean's total group, including - yep. -
Trippi and everyone else - to be completely
disconnected from Dean.
Here's why: Dean gets the grassroots (yep,
even though Trippi built it , we're talking
about the executive branch here, not the
Now, just making Dean the top Dog, will send
ELECTRICITY througout THE ENTIRE COUNTRY
- I guarantee you. We won't need to be
connected back through the old Dean Networks,
we'll blast through any connection mechanism
Ok, we've got meetup wired, and we're getting
serious about reform in our party -
But.. Kerry's folks didn't get it. So
here's what you do: slam them right in the
middle of the grassroots trying to connect
to DEAN. They'll either become opaque
to the phenomenona, at which point the party dies,
or else the fat cat connections they've all
got will cotton to the fact that these
people are going to win them an election.
I know the fat cats, they want to play
to win, and they're going to do whatever
And Kerry knows how to operate Washington
DC and national politics. Dean never really
made it to the national state, he was
an asterisk being carried through to where
he was, essentially, on a third party
that wanted so desperately to form beneath
him, it was like a wave.
Dean as top dog will make EVERYONE happy.
Heck, in Georgia, we'll throw parties.
He had a LOT of people ready to get armed
up for him, down here.. "We want to be the
party for people who are drivin' those
pickup trucks with the flag in the back.."
He spoke to the hardest of hardcore down
here, not racists, but good solid
democrats that were angry with the system,
and republicans down here are miffed too...
The GOP is playing all this down.
This is good news, for Iowa, because
Vilsack needs to lead there.
Its better news for us, but only if Dean
can find the team. Vermont ain't gonna
do it. I happen to know, for example, that
the entire list for Dean was managed
- some thousands and thousands of members,
by an out of work ski lift operator that
bounced members out just because her friend
told her to do it. That ain't national,
its barely even internet veterans for truth -
Dean has, I reckon, about 30% more fire in the
nation he can tap, that he already did, and
with Kerry's people (conservative fiscal/
social liberal/ strong ) you've got
a real shot at 2006.
Kerry waged a localized campaign.
The GOP understood that votes can cross
state and county lines; we're a diverse, mobile
society - and if they hold Atlanta, for example,
they can use it to get Florida. Kerry worked
under the "iowa" model that you need to
be there, all the time, saturating the
we never had that truly hardcore base, that worked
really hard to get things done. I considered my self
one of them, but I really didn't like alot of
people in the related campaigns, I considered
alot of them naive. I needed an almost military
style group. Still do.
Separating from the rest of the US would
be a solution. Let them all hang. I can't
think of a single reason why, for ex., Ohio
doesn't deserve to be cut loose right about now..
1. embrace voting as a patriotic act in the following ways.
a) become a party that embraces Instant runoff voting.
b) auditable trails to the existing voting mechanisms.
c) fundamental GOTV stuff like taking Nov. 2nd
and making it a national holiday
2. embrace the net by sponsoring:
a) real websites that consolidate all information
including open secrets stuff, on every candidat e including local ones. Let the democrats website
become a portal to all candidates, gop or otherwise, so we can do our own DD
b) give control of the party, ie a chairmanship seat, to the blogs and all who participate in them.
c) let other countries pitch in, by way of net,
on advisory council.
3. blow off the special interest groups once and for all. the grassroots held it together
for the GOP, they hold the key in the
4. embrace faith. Specifically, lets talk about
the society we live in. its time to become
real christians, or buddhists, or whatever we
are. But this undisciplined mess has to go,
and we will take credit for it.
5. Give the hispanic vote a real voice. Lobby
for permanent citizenship with all benefits.
I canvassed, maybe 10 neighborhoods where
Kerry would have been swept in by a landslide
but the people were illegal.
6. Anti war. This war in Iraq was a mistake.
It still is a mistake.
7. Take a totally new direction, with your people - this includes being able to jettison Dean, if you have to. As well as anyone else who
can't cut the mustard. We need totally new leadership, unbound.
WIN. Parties are about winning. Win EVERYWHERE.
Establish a base of support and strengthen
it until you get to absurd numbers, like 70%
in some of the red states. Don't let this base
go no matter what.
This is my first time posting, so beware I am
a true independent. I don't normally tickle
the partisans too often in the right way.
I think this post is accurate.
Liberalism is on the increase, ca. David
Brooks book on 'bigger government', he
cites that even the republicans are
getting into it. Thats also one of the reasons
why they won.
I for one think some things should be
smaller, otherthings bigger. I don't
call myself a liberal because, for example,
I think there's too many federal reserve
banks. Shut em down!
But I do believe that the best way to prevent
abortion is to provide a safe medical procedure,
AND take care of the mother, and let her
know that she won't go bankrupt if she has
the baby.. so there's this safety net,
for ex. the same one you have in the netherlands,
that I want in place.
The key is not so much the statistics,
for me, re: liberalism as it is a return
to "fighting liberalism" that defined the
victory party of WWII.
People are going to start wondering, fairly
soon, what they got into here - with this
vote for Bush, I promise you truth in labelling
will help the Dems.
So I would say yes to being a "Fighting Liberal"
as much as I would being indy.