• comment on a post State Party Blogs: Who has one & Who will soon over 9 years ago
    I don't see it as affecting our situation that much.
    That is, I think the potential for getting
    into people's cellphone holds greater promise
    than getting them back to their PC and away
    from the other voters around them..
  • comment on a post Masking Realignment over 9 years ago
    The south that voted for Bush was exurbia -
    and the enclaves in Florida that want
    government to stay away from nearly unbridled
    growth.

    Large parts of the south were untouched
    by the recession. Particularly exurbia,

    My point about focussing the study here
    down to regions shows how
    the rural vote went all over to Bush,
    but he won the south by winning the perimeter
    around the cities, and about half
    of the interior of the cities.

    thats a black vote. Tavis smiley is real.
    Deal with it.

    Another thing: the idea of 'regionalism'.
    Yes, the south will move together as a voting
    block, but its a cry from independence
    of oppressive corporatism.

    The south is winnable. Right now, the
    Great Backlash Narrative is still focussed
    squarely against the democrats, the nerve
    of that move should impress you -
    GOP in full control and yet they +will+
    hang an albatross on the neck of
    the Democrats. FLORIDA WILL go harder
    right, and be unwinnable if the Dems
    ignore it.

    Dean is NOT POPULAR here.
    He barely won 3rd place in South Carolina.

    What we need to be aware of, when we're
    at this juncture is the sheer need
    for military thinking - the very survival
    of the party is at stake. The GOP has
    designs to change the rules of the senate.
    And then they'll have power over the
    Supreme Court.

    When I wrote about the dying donkey
    no-one listend to me. Then the GOP blew
    the freaking doors off the Party.
    Now I'm writing that if we choose
    an incorrect strategy - and an incorrect
    chairman of the DNC the party
    will be gone, for certain.

    No independent / free press. No audits
    on elections. No opposition parties
    in power +anywhere+. No congress,
    senate, presidency, diplomatic corps -
    nothing.

    1. Discount the "states" view since
    to win the elections we need popular wins,
    and they're cross boundary. Base political unit
    for the study should be 4 or so chunks
    of the state, macro scale, or the counties
    of all states. (index them by state name, county name.)

    2. Treat the factors of the study as independent.
    GOP have laid claim to far too many generalisms
    in the south to identify their party, IE,
    the flag, GBN, etc. to be trying to defeat them
    by focussing on attacking the hologram
    they put in your face. Look for the platform
    drivers.

    Do that, and you'll see a new map appear..
    The south can be won, its loss
    is a reflection of the ideal Zell Miller
    laid out in "national party no more".

    It isn't white. Its black folk in McMansions,
    its mexicans who thought kerry was a sissy..
    and its just an unprecedented grassroots
    they have here... built from the christian
    coalitions that are both black, and white.

    Face reality that the donkey is dead
    in South, look carefully and see if its
    terminally ill in the north, midwest, and
    west -

    The only way out in my view is a totally
    new party. And one that specifically excludes
    the control mechanisms that are desperately
    attempting to be claimed by elite groups of people.

    The south uses the 'blogosphere' like no-ones
    business. This is why you have to cross boundaries. Florida was affected by Atlanta,
    for example.

    But those people work back towards
    church, and they're connected to real people.

    The 'blogosphere' for the democrats is
    disconnected. It has to have a way not only
    to deal with the world (really, most bloggers
    are just bad reporters doing a reporter's job
    that's not already being done..)

    and it has to be part of a world view.
    no unity. no strength.

    do the study again with the above,and
    you'll see Bush is really blowing the doors
    off most of the democratic runners
    because he's allied to a grassroots
    movement that simply bests the democrats
    despite their rather vocal
    and moneyed holdings.

  • comment on a post Masking Realignment over 9 years ago
    The main post concludes its platform study
    by zoning in on 'electability'.

    Assumptions:

    1. Perot Helped Bush
    2. The lines are ideological
    3. The south will not be won

    If you look at the failed battle plan of
    Fredericksburg, in the civil war,
    you may recall two dissenting union
    generals that tried to reverse
    US Grant's drive across the river.

    Grants reply

    1. The new reinforcements won't help them
    2. Their defense lines are soft
    3. The south can be defeated by force of number

    Unfortunately,

    1. The ragtags banded together quickly
    2. The defense lines were hard as stone
    3. Men fighting for independence hide well

    As such, the Union army was slaughtered.
    Man after man fell, trying to get the pontoon
    bridge up - first by sharpshooters,
    then crossing. Finally the union army
    was laid waste at the foot of
    the lines of the rebels, crashing
    like waves on solid stone as they
    perished in the onslaught of carefully
    laid out shot and ball launched
    at them from behind stone field walls.

    Newt did a great study of Grant.
    I have yet to look at it but I'm looking
    forward to it.

    Campaigns are war. The dems did run a
    pro-gay marriage candidate during a
    fierce and bloody overseas war.

    The insurgents probably helped them more
    than they hurt them... seeing where I'm going
    with this..?

    Here's the thing. This analysis could be
    improved if:

    1. The base statistical unit is Exurbia/
        metroplexes. Not states.

    2. Bring in platform drivers as the base
       unit of your third party analysis
       (ie, perot financial vs. perot social. etc.)

    Correct for Disintermediating effects
    shake well, and ad  <-- no typo a twist of lime.
    >:)

  • Or as that epic song by tool .. "I know the pieces fit"

    You've done a great job with demographics. Thats
    one of the reasons I truly enjoy reading you.
    I happen to come from a math background
    (I don't really have a brain for math, but
    after Adv. calculus in Grad school, and
    two years of graduate research I finally
    figured out how to trick ye olde grey
    matter into a semblance of accuracy..
    so I have a tendency to say 'I come
    from a math background' even though
    my PhD is still out there unfinished..
    I +will+ finish it.. I +will+ finish it!)

    Alright.

    Here's what you need.

    1. You got demographics.
    2. You correctly identified 3rd party trending.
    3. Your causality on this trending is excellent.
    (anti-corporatism, anti-status quo, etc.)

    Here's your mistake: you don't love your
    enemy enough. (in other words, it ain't
    just insider vs. outsider..)

    "conservatism being a force that relies on pure theory, faith-based worldviews, and that supports status-quo institutions such as corporations and the media."

    Wrong-o.

    Look around you. Libertarianism is driving conservatism, and its not just a force that
    relies on pure theory.

    Its a force that relies on breaking the backs
    of people who can vote against their own
    self interest, purely because it feels right.

    Look around. The Internet is a purely
    libertarian space, and its defining and
    shaping their lives far more rapidly and
    completely than government ever will be.

    This is not to say its technocratic.
    Its not. Its a sort of desperately needed
    social tribalism that values us, instead
    of turning on the damn evening news.

    I live in Georgia. We are now almost
    the new texas. Third parties come here
    to die not because conservatism is
    'faith based' or a 'force that relies
    on pure theory' that defeats it every
    time (that analysis could only be borne
    from a place where conservatism itself
    is a theory - conservatism is much deeper
    in the south, and much more accepted.).

    No.

    Third parties die here because
    there is nowhere on this planet that
    wishes federalism would die.

    It ain't liberal.

    It's libertarian.
    Add that into the equation and now
    what do you get.

    1. A confederacy desperate for things like
    tort reform, economic independence,
    competitive agribusiness - red states
    ready to go deep.

    2. An energized base in the states where
    your trendlines line up - California
    isn't looking for something new, they're
    looking for something that +works+.

    3. A true attack on the money-wasting, money-
    laundering lobbies that clog down the process.

    And finally. Disintermediation.
    This is a force that goes beyond words.

    We are participating, casting our voice
    into the cosmic fugue. Newt Gingrich
    said "the internet is basically republican"

    Don't discount his words! His ideas have
    driven that party to victory. What
    he's doing is laying claim not
    to theory - but the raw force of history -
    which is driving us back to American,
    Libertarian roots.

    Go to Williamsburg before you finish this
    piece, walk into the courthouse and just
    listen to the clerk of court go on his riff.
    It takes about 30 minutes. But it will
    reaally open your eyes.

    1. Conservation.
    2. Freedom
    3. Equality
    4. Anti-corporatism, anti-status quo
    5. Disintermediation
    6. Victory.
  • comment on a post Using the Language of Our Oppressors over 9 years ago
    I happen to live in Exurbia/ Bible Belt country.

    I think the key factor to remember is that
    people here treat Rush limbaugh, or FOX
    news, as news.

    You absolutely have to reign in these channels
    of propaganda, and make it well know theyre
    not to be trusted..

  • Billy's accomplishment:

    The investment bankers that propped up
    the Enron debacle got off scot free,
    and the guy who had the ties to the Enron/Investment bankers - was found with a bullet through his
    skull a mile down the road from his home.

    Obviously suicide.

    Tauzin was the red faced idiot that made sure
    no-one really knew what mark to market,
    derivatives, and SPE transaction accounting

    This is widely used by Advertising firms.
    Everyone gets off scot free, DeGrasso,
    from the NYSE -
    MCI, light sentences for Fastow and his
    wife.  Everyone.

    Tauzin made sure he made a lot of heat
    and noise, but he played THE role
    in getting them all off the hook.

  • comment on a post DNC News over 9 years ago
    Dean was a centrist embroiled in a radical
    campaign experiment. He had the nerve to see
    it would work, and it did.

    That changed everything this year.

    My analysis is that the base Dean drew up
    kept the election from turning into
    a rout.

    That said, the gay lobby is totally and
    completely screwed as far as political
    power right now, and they know it.
    They had alot of people controlling media
    placement, and in the TV industry and
    1 billion dollars later, the realization is
    dawning that this free blog out here in
    cyberspace is drawing more firepower than
    the quarter billion big gay al's big gay
    boatride set up for them to spend on
    primetime.

    -=-

    If I could, the changing media landscape
    should play into this. Dean is a media
    babe in the woods in alot of regard.

    I noticed that there are now goodly
    spikes on films released for DVD and
    people are making investments into
    HD tv. There's a plant going online in
    South Korea that will make the element
    of the HD TV in mass production , alot
    less expensive than it is now (assuming
    we find the missing trillium..>:) ..
    and this trend will only continue.

    So here on the one hand you've got a terry mcauliffe type strategy, heavily dependent
    on broadcast media and fat cat lobbies.
    You can ask Ken Mehlmann if that isn't
    a big gay world..

    Then on the other hand, you've got the
    libertarian .. YES! libertarian!!
    world of the internet.

    I vote for libertarian.

    Dean gets it. He's brash, but then again,
    so's MyDD and Kos and a host of others.
    Dean deserves DNC chair.

    But he's got to be free of the wierdos
    around him right now.. If I don't
    see signs that he's blown loose
    from all the cheeseheads that ruined
    him (and this does not count trippi!,
    he's a special case!!) we're not
    going to get him.

    Rosenberg, not radical enough.
    ?

  • comment on a post Kerry & DNC & 2008 over 9 years ago

    The party is all that matters now, its
    all about +winning+ so before we call kerry a loser, lets realize it came down to 5 figures
    in voters out of 9 figure tallys.

    Sure the guy made a mistake or two in his campaign, but he tried to talk common sense
    to the American people while the other
    guy was putting on a dog and pony show.

  • comment on a post DNC Date & more poll info over 9 years ago
    I think Roy Barnes can win you 16 electoral votes.
    I know this is a radical proposition, but Barnes
    can negotiate with Zell and cut into the Red State
    Phenomenon. Barnes and Zell get along, but Barnes
    is much more moderate and also quite frankly he's
    got good organizational skills, very good
    executive skills. I think Barnes should
    run Vice Chair.

    And I think we should put our money where
    our mouth is, as a party, and embrace an Instant
    Run off Vote for our own party chair!!

    Rosenberg has been spoken highly of.
    Vilsack out, means that the votes will divide
    for the rest. Dean is in front whether he likes
    it or not.

  • comment on a post Vilsack Is Out over 9 years ago
    I am lighting a candle under the virgin
    mary today for Kerry to bring his team over
    to Dean.

    We need Dean's total group, including - yep. -
    Trippi and everyone else - to be completely
    disconnected from Dean.

    Here's why: Dean gets the grassroots (yep,
    even though Trippi built it , we're talking
    about the executive branch here, not the
    engineering branch).

    Now, just making Dean the top Dog, will send
    ELECTRICITY througout THE ENTIRE COUNTRY
    - I guarantee you. We won't need to be
    connected back through the old Dean Networks,
    we'll blast through any connection mechanism
    you've got.

    Ok, we've got meetup wired, and we're getting
    serious about reform in our party -

    But.. Kerry's folks didn't get it. So
    here's what you do: slam them right in the
    middle of the grassroots trying to connect
    to DEAN. They'll either become opaque
    to the phenomenona, at which point the party dies,
    or else the fat cat connections they've all
    got will cotton to the fact that these
    people are going to win them an election.

    I know the fat cats, they want to play
    to win, and they're going to do whatever
    it takes.

    And Kerry knows how to operate Washington
    DC and national politics. Dean never really
    made it to the national state, he was
    an asterisk being carried through to where
    he was, essentially, on a third party
    that wanted so desperately to form beneath
    him, it was like a wave.

    Dean as top dog will make EVERYONE happy.
    Heck, in Georgia, we'll throw parties.
    He had a LOT of people ready to get armed
    up for him, down here.. "We want to be the
    party for people who are drivin' those
    pickup trucks with the flag in the back.."

    He spoke to the hardest of hardcore down
    here, not racists, but good solid
    democrats that were angry with the system,
    and republicans down here are miffed too...
    The GOP is playing all this down.

    This is good news, for Iowa, because
    Vilsack needs to lead there.

    Its better news for us, but only if Dean
    can find the team. Vermont ain't gonna
    do it. I happen to know, for example, that
    the entire list for Dean was managed
    - some thousands and thousands of members,
    by an out of work ski lift operator that
    bounced members out just because her friend
    told her to do it. That ain't national,
    its barely even internet veterans for truth -
    Dean has, I reckon, about 30% more fire in the
    nation he can tap, that he already did, and
    with Kerry's people (conservative fiscal/
    social liberal/ strong ) you've got
    a real shot at 2006.


  • Kerry waged a localized campaign.
       The GOP understood that votes can cross
       state and county lines; we're a diverse, mobile
       society - and if they hold Atlanta, for example,
       they can use it to get Florida. Kerry worked
       under the "iowa" model that you need to
       be there, all the time, saturating the
       airwaves, etc.

    we never had that truly hardcore base, that worked
    really hard to get things done. I considered my self
    one of them, but I really didn't like alot of
    people in the related campaigns, I considered
    alot of them naive. I needed an almost military
    style group. Still do.

    Separating from the rest of the US would
    be a solution. Let them all hang. I can't
    think of a single reason why, for ex., Ohio
    doesn't deserve to be cut loose right about now..

  • comment on a post Republican Red over 9 years ago
    Univ. of California, Berkeley - Math Department.
    A study on the effects of e-voting in Florida,

    http://ucdata.berkeley.edu/new_web/VOTE2004/index.html

  • comment on a post Open Thread #6 over 9 years ago

    1. embrace voting as a patriotic act in the following ways.

      a) become a party that embraces Instant runoff voting.
      b) auditable trails to the existing voting mechanisms.
      c) fundamental GOTV stuff like taking Nov. 2nd
         and making it a national holiday

    2. embrace the net by sponsoring:
       a) real websites that consolidate all information
         including open secrets stuff, on every candidat e including local ones. Let the democrats website
    become a portal to all candidates, gop or otherwise, so we can do our own DD

      b) give control of the party, ie a chairmanship seat, to the blogs and all who participate in them.
      c) let other countries pitch in, by way of net,
    on advisory council.

    3. blow off the special interest groups once and for all. the grassroots held it together
     for the GOP, they hold the key in the
    modern centure.

    4. embrace faith. Specifically, lets talk about
    the society we live in. its time to become
    real christians, or buddhists, or whatever we
    are. But this undisciplined mess has to go,
    and we will take credit for it.

    5. Give the hispanic vote a real voice. Lobby
    for permanent citizenship with all benefits.

    I canvassed, maybe 10 neighborhoods where
    Kerry would have been swept in by a landslide
    but the people were illegal.

    6. Anti war. This war in Iraq was a mistake.
    It still is a mistake.

    7. Take a totally new direction, with your people - this includes being able to jettison Dean, if you have to. As well as anyone else who
    can't cut the mustard. We need totally new leadership, unbound.

    1. WIN. Parties are about winning. Win EVERYWHERE.

    2. Establish a base of support and strengthen
    it until you get to absurd numbers, like 70%
    in some of the red states. Don't let this base
    go no matter what.

    10. Finally, start NOW.

  • comment on a post Liberalism on the Decline? over 9 years ago
    This is my first time posting, so beware I am
    a true independent. I don't normally tickle
    the partisans too often in the right way.

    I think this post is accurate.
    Liberalism is on the increase, ca. David
    Brooks book on 'bigger government', he
    cites that even the republicans are
    getting into it. Thats also one of the reasons
    why they won.

    I for one think some things should be
    smaller, otherthings bigger. I don't
    call myself a liberal because, for example,
    I think there's too many federal reserve
    banks. Shut em down!

    But I do believe that the best way to prevent
    abortion is to provide a safe medical procedure,
    AND take care of the mother, and let her
    know that she won't go bankrupt if she has
    the baby.. so there's this safety net,
    for ex. the same one you have in the netherlands,
    that I want in place.

    The key is not so much the statistics,
    for me, re: liberalism as it is a return
    to "fighting liberalism" that defined the
    victory party of WWII.

    People are going to start wondering, fairly
    soon, what they got into here - with this
    vote for Bush, I promise you truth in labelling
    will help the Dems.

    So I would say yes to being a "Fighting Liberal"
    as much as I would being indy.

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