by TruthMatters, Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 08:41:15 AM EDT
those of you who just want to flame, its respectfully asked you do it else where there are plenty of diaries for it.
more of a intellectual debate, but we are forgetting a key thing.
Penn moved us FROM the Delegates to the popular vote by arguing by this point in the race Hillary would only be about 20 delegates behind.
in fact in before Texas and Ohio, the rationale was get close enough in delegates that we can consider that a tie and go by the popular vote.
I think what everyone is has done is, we got so use to this delegate vs. popular vote that we forgot she first had to narrow the delegate lead, (or at least the MSM forgot this)
so here is the question, and it will obviously differ per person but.
at What point do you consider the Delegate count close enough, that the popular count makes a difference?
does the Delegate count not even matter and you think its ONLY about the popular vote?
it was pointed out earlier to How Penn framed Hillary's Path to the nomination
"By Mark Penn
To: Interested Parties
From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
Date: Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Re: The Path to the Nomination
This election will come down to delegates. Votes are still being counted and delegates apportioned, but Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are separated by approximately 40 delegates right now - that is, barely 1% of all the delegates to the Democratic convention.
Change Begins March 4th. Hillary leads in the three largest, delegate rich states remaining: Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. These three states have 492 delegates - 64 percent of the remaining delegates Hillary Clinton needs to win the nomination. According to the latest polls, Hillary leads in Texas (IVR Jan 30-31), Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall Jan 8-14) and Ohio (Columbus Dispatch Jan 23-31). After March 4th, over 3000 delegates will be committed, and we project that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be virtually tied with 611 delegates still to be chosen in Pennsylvania and other remaining states.
...As history shows, the Democratic nomination goes to the candidate who wins the most delegates.
Obama is about 300 delegates away from the nomination, assuming that some how he only gets 47% of the remaining delegates (I am being really conservative)
he nets 192 of the needed 300, meaning only about 105 of the 300+ supes secure the nomination for him.
so if Obama hits the number but Hillary has a lead in pop vote. say 100,000 lead. which do you think the supes use?
me? I think if he actually hits the number by June 3rd, its done, I don't care the lead we all know that the Delegates ARE the offical metric for the nomination.
after Obama hits it, you are making a 2000 argument, and we all know how that turned out for Al Gore, right or wrong.
I think Obama can convince 100 Supers that endorsing him is the best thing to do, espeically if it gives him the magic number and thus saves a convention fight.
which will matter more if Obama hits the magic number
Delegates or Popular vote?