Delegate Count vs. Popular Count whats the magic number?

those of you who just want to flame, its respectfully asked you do it else where there are plenty of diaries for it.

more of a intellectual debate, but we are forgetting a key thing.

Penn moved us FROM the Delegates to the popular vote by arguing by this point in the race Hillary would only be about 20 delegates behind.

in fact in before Texas and Ohio, the rationale was get close enough in delegates that we can consider that a tie and go by the popular vote.

I think what everyone is has done is, we got so use to this delegate vs. popular vote that we forgot she first had to narrow the delegate lead, (or at least the MSM forgot this)

so here is the question, and it will obviously differ per person but.

at What point do you consider the Delegate count close enough, that the popular count makes a difference?

or

does the Delegate count not even matter and you think its ONLY about the popular vote?

it was pointed out earlier to How Penn framed Hillary's Path to the nomination
http://thepage.time.com/penn-memo-the-pa th-to-the-nomination/


"By Mark Penn

To: Interested Parties

From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist

Date: Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Re: The Path to the Nomination

This election will come down to delegates. Votes are still being counted and delegates apportioned, but Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are separated by approximately 40 delegates right now - that is, barely 1% of all the delegates to the Democratic convention.

Change Begins March 4th. Hillary leads in the three largest, delegate rich states remaining: Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. These three states have 492 delegates - 64 percent of the remaining delegates Hillary Clinton needs to win the nomination. According to the latest polls, Hillary leads in Texas (IVR Jan 30-31), Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall Jan 8-14) and Ohio (Columbus Dispatch Jan 23-31). After March 4th, over 3000 delegates will be committed, and we project that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be virtually tied with 611 delegates still to be chosen in Pennsylvania and other remaining states.

...As history shows, the Democratic nomination goes to the candidate who wins the most delegates.

Obama is about 300 delegates away from the nomination, assuming that some how he only gets 47% of the remaining delegates (I am being really conservative)

he nets 192 of the needed 300, meaning only about 105 of the 300+ supes secure the nomination for him.

so if Obama hits the number but Hillary has a lead in pop vote. say 100,000 lead. which do you think the supes use?

me? I think if he actually hits the number by June 3rd, its done, I don't care the lead we all know that the Delegates ARE the offical metric for the nomination.

after Obama hits it, you are making a 2000 argument, and we all know how that turned out for Al Gore, right or wrong.

I think Obama can convince 100 Supers that endorsing him is the best thing to do, espeically if it gives him the magic number and thus saves a convention fight.

others?

which will matter more if Obama hits the magic number

Delegates or Popular vote?

There's more...

Should Both Campaigns pledge to Honor the Pop. Vote?

sure RIGHT now we are arguing about the popular vote, but eventually, even HRC supporters won't be able to avoid the math, or assume we are all idiots and that MI will be seated as is.

they have given up on delegates, (the way the RULES say we decide a winner) they know they won't catch up, the delegate race is done Obama won.
 so they have the pop vote left.

here was MSNBC's projections yesterday morning

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/default.a spx?p=3

    Total Votes   Clinton     Obama    Projection
PA    2,000,000   1,100,000   900,000    55%-45%
NC    1,500,000     675,000   825,000    45%-55%
IN      900,000     460,000   440,000    51%-49%
WV      400,000     240,000   160,000    60%-40%
KY      500,000     300,000   200,000    60%-40%
OR      600,000     270,000   330,000    45%-55%
SD      100,000      45,000    55,000    45%-55%
MT      125,000      56,250    68,750    45%-55%

TOTAL             3,146,250  2,978,750

Clinton a net gain of 167,500 popular votes

according to RealClearPolitics the estimated pop vote is now


Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* & FL
O -15,307,804    48.4%    C- 14,991,216    47.4%    bama +316,588    +1.0%

yes, I didn't count MI, someone points to just 1 uncommitted SD that has ever acted like MI will be counted as is and I will. its pretty obvious now, that the supes and the DNC and the campaigns are counting FL as is, so that should always be added to the pop vote totals. even giving interviews though the HRC campaign does NOT add MI. they know if you keep tying them both together then they are both out, MI will not come in, FL will by itself.

so from this we have 2 things to note

1) Hillary has to out perform the projections by 150,000 votes.
2) its clear from this and the front page there will be a serious debate soon, about whether or not, PR should decide the democratic nomination if they don't even vote in the fall. HRC's only argument will be its the RULES, (just like the rules say the winner is the pledged delegate winner)

to me Obama has wiggle room, it will be pretty hard for elected officials to go back to their voters, and say well yes the majority of Voters wanted Obama, but PR said Hillary and we can't piss of PR, because.....

I have been thinking about it for 2 days, and I am pretty sure Obama will argue that PR pop vote shouldn't count.

Thought excercise: whats a rational reason (besides the rules) that PR, whose citizens cannot vote in the fall, should have the last say on the Democratic nominee? and how do you sell this not to the decided, but the undecided super delegates?

so knowing that Hillary has a tough Hill to climb still, I think we need both of them to pledge to the pop vote or the delegates, but they need to choose one.

Interviewed on MSNBC just now, Hillary top adviser Terry McAuliffe continued Camp Hillary's efforts to make the case that the pledged del count isn't the metric that should determine the winner of the Dem primary.

Asked directly whether the winner of the pledged del count should be seen as the winner of the primary, McAuliffe sidestepped the question, then said:

   By the time we finish this process Hillary Clinton will have moved ahead in the popular vote.

McAuliffe added, unsurprisingly, that he was including Florida in his count. But even including Florida, this is an optimistic projection, to say the least.

Asked directly whether we should see the popular vote as a more important metric than the pledged del count, McAuliffe demurred -- reminding us again that the Hillary camp's main goal will be to obscure the idea that the Dem primary electorate rendered a clear verdict on who their choice as nominee is.

This is what its really about, the pop vote and the will of the people only matter if they think they can win it. for all her supporters talk of the pop vote, and this being a democracy, we ALL know they would never lock themselves into it.

I think its time for the campaigns to set the final metric and agree how are we going to decide? and if they won't commit to the popular vote NOW, then I only support the pledged delegates as the metric.

I think the fact they aren't ready to commit to just the popular vote, says a great deal about a few things

1) its NOT about the will of the people to them
2) they don't know yet if they WILL win the pop vote

There's more...

The I am not talking about this election yet diary,

ok I am ignoring all results untill at least 1 hr AFTER polls close, so this is just a general diary for those like me who are ignoring the early numbers.

so its an open thread. anything interesting going on?

anyone watch Psych on USA? its coming back soon

There's more...

Hillary Clintons Closing Ad, Obama's response

here is Hillary's Closing Ad.

Obama camp responded with this

will update when I find Obama's Closing Ad.

There's more...

$1 million for Obama in 1 minute -- TODAY

ok I made it and hit delete instead of update :( so just a cross post from Daily kos cause I am not doing it again

$1 million for Barack Obama in 1 minute, at 1pm Eastern/10 am Pacific, TODAY.  Can they pull it off?  It sounds completely insane... which is why I love it, and why I'll help.  Who's with me?

If you're not familiar with this, the folks over at An Obama Minute have an effort to get Obama supporters to donate $1 million in one minute. And that minute is today, at 1pm eastern. (press release below the fold)

I love it. Grassrootsy, hella ambitious, and hella creative all in one package.  If they're gonna shoot for the moon, I'm happy to go along for the ride...

They've had great buzz, including the NY Times..  

Who's with me?   A few notes:

  1. Can't make it at 1pm? Go here to donate now, & have it credited to this effort.  They've already got near $50,000.

  2. Got a blog? Blog the HELL out of this. Get the word out.

  3. Please rec this -- let's keep up the momentum until the big minute.

   * Hlinko's diary :: ::
*

(cross posted at BareNaked Pundits)

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 20, 2008

CONTACT
Jennifer Cunningham, (917) 783-5797
Scott Cohen, (917) 859-7935

$1 MILLION FOR OBAMA IN 1 MINUTE; GRASSROOTS CAMPAIGN "AN OBAMA MINUTE" AIMS FOR MILLION-DOLLAR MINUTE ON APRIL 21ST

NEW YORK, NY: The grassroots campaign "An Obama Minute" (www.AnObamaMinute.com), a website aiming to collect $1 million in contributions for Senator Barack Obama's presidential campaign in only one minute, announced today it has nearly reached two thirds of its goal in pledged contributions. The event will occur on April 21st at 1pm Eastern Time, the day before the hotly contested Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary.

"The goal is to create a vehicle for everyday voters to organize and amplify the extraordinary value of individuals working together," said Scott Cohen, creator of the site and a Manhattan-based photographer. "The power of Barack Obama's campaign is his ability to bridge political and demographic divides and bring people together."

Initial numbers show that pledged contributors are overwhelmingly small donors from across the country, overseas and across all demographics. In addition to the unique method of the campaign driving contributions, a number of large organizations -- including the 1.6 million member Service Employees International Union (SEIU) -- have endorsed the effort and are encouraging their members to donate to the campaign on April 21st at 1pm.

While the site is encouraging donations of  $100, the campaign was devised with math in mind that large quantities of small donations can make an enormous difference. Here's the math:

$100 x 10,000 people = $1,000,000
$50 x 20,000 people = $1,000,000
$25 x 50,000 people = $1,000,000
$10 x 100,000 people = $1,000,000

After contributors register to contribute on www.AnObamaMinute.com, on Monday morning, April 21st, contributors will be taken directly to a donation page on the Barack Obama's campaign site: http://my.barackobama.com/...

For contributors who are unavailable at that time, they can still be part of the effort by making a donation before April 21st at  http://my.barackobama.com/...

can we raise $1,000,000 in 1 minute?

Yes, We Can

http://www.anobamaminute.com/ here is that NY Times link that wasn't hyperlinked anymore: http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/17/million-dollar-minute/

There's more...

$1 million for Obama in 1 minute -- TODAY

$1 million for Barack Obama in 1 minute, at 1pm Eastern/10 am Pacific, TODAY.  

found this at the orange satan, I will be doing this I hope other Obama supporters will to, even if its only $10.

lets show them the power of the grass/net roots!

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 20, 2008

CONTACT
Jennifer Cunningham, (917) 783-5797
Scott Cohen, (917) 859-7935

$1 MILLION FOR OBAMA IN 1 MINUTE; GRASSROOTS CAMPAIGN "AN OBAMA MINUTE" AIMS FOR MILLION-DOLLAR MINUTE ON APRIL 21ST

NEW YORK, NY: The grassroots campaign "An Obama Minute" (www.AnObamaMinute.com), a website aiming to collect $1 million in contributions for Senator Barack Obama's presidential campaign in only one minute, announced today it has nearly reached two thirds of its goal in pledged contributions. The event will occur on April 21st at 1pm Eastern Time, the day before the hotly contested Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary.

"The goal is to create a vehicle for everyday voters to organize and amplify the extraordinary value of individuals working together," said Scott Cohen, creator of the site and a Manhattan-based photographer. "The power of Barack Obama's campaign is his ability to bridge political and demographic divides and bring people together."

Initial numbers show that pledged contributors are overwhelmingly small donors from across the country, overseas and across all demographics. In addition to the unique method of the campaign driving contributions, a number of large organizations -- including the 1.6 million member Service Employees International Union (SEIU) -- have endorsed the effort and are encouraging their members to donate to the campaign on April 21st at 1pm.

While the site is encouraging donations of  $100, the campaign was devised with math in mind that large quantities of small donations can make an enormous difference. Here's the math:

$100 x 10,000 people = $1,000,000
$50 x 20,000 people = $1,000,000
$25 x 50,000 people = $1,000,000
$10 x 100,000 people = $1,000,000

After contributors register to contribute on www.AnObamaMinute.com, on Monday morning, April 21st, contributors will be taken directly to a donation page on the Barack Obama's campaign site:
https:/donate.barackobama.com/page/cont ribute/pf?outreach_page_id=38499

if you can't be on at the right time you can donate now and have it go to this, he already has $50,000

https:donate.barackobama.com/page/cont ribute/pf?outreach_page_id=38499

the buzz of this event is in the papers
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/ 04/17/million-dollar-minute

You've heard of speed dating. Now it's time for speed fund raising.

Some fans of Senator Barack Obama have set up a new Web site with the goal of raising $1 million in one minute.

The minute starts at 1 p.m. on Monday, the day before the presidential primary in Pennsylvania, though donors can preregister through AnObamaMinute.com.

The effort was created by Scott Cohen, an independent filmmaker and photographer in New York, who had no connection with the campaign but found Mr. Obama inspirational.

$1 million for Barack Obama in 1 minute, at 1pm Eastern/10 am Pacific, TODAY.  

hope to see everyone donate!, and though my prediction is Obama loses tomorrow by 12.

she won't have enough to catch up in the popular vote, so donate now people $1,000,000 in a 1 minute, can it we do it?

Yes, We Can.

http://www.anobamaminute.com/ to donate right now and have it count for the

There's more...

Is Obama NOT Crushing Hillary because of the Woman vote?

I love places that allow others to post diaries because some times you find gems like this one:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/tal k/2008/04/my-82-year-old-mothers-debate. php


If he dives in to any of the critical comments pundits and so-called reporters think he needs to in order to show some killer instinct, he will totally lose the women who are currently pro-Hillary forever.  The vitriol is bad enough now, can you imagine how Hillary's girls would feel about him if he had flattened her

I asked my 82 year old mother, who hates politics with a passion because it is so negative, what she thought about the debate.  She said "Well, he's being a gentleman, of course.  Thank goodness, that is why I will vote for him." She then said "It's about time someone behaved properly." She then also asked me why I was making her watch the coverage.  "You know this is why I hate politics, I'm going to go play mahjong on the computer."

I never ever thought of it that way? is this how some women would see how Obama is closing this race out?

then I read some of the comments like this

 
  The vitriol is bad enough now, can you imagine how Hillary's girls would feel about him if he had flattened her?

As I said in reply to this when you posted it as a comment:

Some of those women scare me, and I'm not scared of much.

I think you are dead right - my mother had a way of dropping those little earth shattering statements once in awhile when she was older, too.

You're lucky you still have her - she sounds like a treasure.

I have to admit I have started to see the posters here, and at places like Hillaryis44, TaylorMarsh.com and even HillaryClinton.com as representative of Hillary's support.

I have a counter tale to yours that I find so sad I can hardly tell it.

I used to hang with some really intense liberal folks on a blog and a regular there is a feminist about my age. She is completely progressive. But she is so hell bent on a woman president a mutual friend of ours just told me she's been saying she'd vote for Condi Rice if the Republicans ran her.

That still has my head ringing.

there is something else going on there, I think, and it's really always been problematical for me with some feminists. I don't hate men. God knows I've been harassed - I was one of a handful of women doing criminal defense in the 80s here. But fuck that - I know who and what I am - they couldn't do anything to me that affects that, so I've never been bitter that way.

I hate to be unfair to these women, but I really and truly couldn't believe what I was hearing. Condi Rice is a war criminal. She belongs in prison. Just having any woman for president does not do one thing for women.

I think when we see something like Hillary winning 60% of the woman vote we forget that 40% of 150 million women is still a hell of alot of women support that Obama has!

There is a faction of feminists that defies reason in this election. And I can say it: I should be HIllary's demographic. I'm 57 years old, a white female and a feminist. But I am horrified by her exploitation of victimhood, the sheer ugliness of her campaign, and her exploitation of feminist principles when the Clintons have consistently thrown feminists under the bus and Hillary herself is a recipient of affirmative action because of her famous name.

But I'm called a traitor by many feminists. My lesbian friends just want a woman, any woman. To me, it's insane, counter-productive.

My grandmother said much the same thing, "Nice to see a politician with some manners."

so any of you ladies out there or with older mothers or grandmas, is this how they are viewing this race? and what were their thoughts on the debate?

its to bad the media doesn't care about honest reactions, these are kind of things I would have loved to see, them asking real people, real voters what they thought.

I mean I was boggled to read that people thought Obama was acting as a gentlemen, I never even thought that would be expected from him, but it is isn't it.

interesting.

There's more...

The Real Story of that Flag Pin question....

heh at this point, I just wow, lol, I just laugh now really, is THIS what we have to look forward 2 for the next 2 months?

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/340 71.html

Nash McCabe is the voter from Wednesday night's presidential debate who noted that Barack Obama doesn't usually wear a flag pin and asked, "I want to know if you believe in the American flag."

ABC, which hosted the debate, had tracked her down after she was quoted in a New York Times story about white voters in small-town Latrobe, Pa., revealing her as 52, out of work and against Obama.

I don't really have comments anymore for stuff like this.
hey that woman is against Obama, lets find her to ask a question!

But she sees a difference between the two. In Clinton, she sees someone who has struggled for years, just like her, and has earned the right to be president. In Obama, she sees someone who rose like a rocket, always has a smooth explanation for everything -- whether it's about his former preacher or the flag pin -- and who makes it all look too easy.

"That's what upsets me about Barack Obama," she says. "He takes everything so nonchalantly."

DAMN YOU OBAMA!! FOR MAKING IT ALL SEEM EASY!

She admits that she's more likely to give Clinton the benefit of the doubt while looking for fault in Obama. For example, McCabe says that she once saw Obama on television and noticed that "he turned his back on the flag" before the Pledge of Allegiance ended. That irritated her to no end

me I agree with others, at this point I just don't care anymore its just gotten sad at this point. Hell McCain can win, economically speaking democrats only help me for another 3-4 years and then eh.

oh and yeah

Pentagon institute calls Iraq war 'a major debacle' with outcome 'in doubt'
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/stor y/34101.html

WASHINGTON -- The war in Iraq has become "a major debacle" and the outcome "is in doubt" despite improvements in security from the buildup in U.S. forces, according to a highly critical study published Thursday by the Pentagon's premier military educational institute.

The report released by the National Defense University raises fresh doubts about President Bush's projections of a U.S. victory in Iraq just a week after Bush announced that he was suspending U.S. troop reductions.


not that this sort of thing is actually important or anything.

There's more...

Dean to Supes: "Endorse Now"

Dean  is probably tired of Barack and Hillary being so negative.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/200 8/04/17/dean-i-need-a-decision-now/

An increasingly firm Howard Dean told CNN again Thursday that he needs superdelegates to say who they're for - and "I need them to say who they're for starting now."

"We cannot give up two or three months of active campaigning and healing time," the Democratic National Committee Chairman told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "We've got to know who our nominee is."

don't think he is the only one

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2 008/04/17/913991.aspx
TWO UNCOMMITTED SUPERS 'WORN OUT'

edley tried to watch the debate, but turned it off before it was over. "It was so contentious," she said. "I'm so worn out with all the arguing."

Chappelle-Nadal missed the debate because the legislature, now debating the state budget, was in session until about 1 a.m. Thursday. But she, too, laments that the campaign has been reduced to "bickering."

add to that what Clinton supporter Congressman Frank said:

Longtime Democratic Rep. Barney Frank of Massachusetts - A Hillary Clinton supporter and the brother of senior Clinton policy advisor Ann Lewis - said Tuesday that whichever Democratic presidential candidate is trailing should drop out once it "became clear that candidate had no remaining practical chance of winning the nomination," the Associated Press reports.

Frank named the date by which he believes that candidate should give up the fight: June 3rd, the day of the South Dakota and Montana primaries. He added that the trailing candidate should drop out"probably sooner" than that.

There's more...

IS the MSM saving screw 'em for Monday?

I thought it would be asked at the debate yesterday but it wasn't. I thought it would be in the Media today but it wasn't so I thought wow Hillary dodged a bullet (pardon my pun) and this story wasn't going to break. but then I noticed that the story is still there right below the surface.

it IS being talked about, just not on the surface.

It is being talked about:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsm emo.com/

On a Clinton campaign conference call this morning, Hillary's advisers were asked directly what their basis is for  denying outright that she said "screw 'em" about white working class southerners in a meeting in 1995, as author Benjamin Barber  alleges.

The Media is still looking into it:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2 008/04/17/907891.aspx

In the spin room after last night's debate, NBC/NJ's Athena Jones reports, Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson said Clinton was quoted inaccurately and that she did not say it. Wolfson reiterated that on MSNBC's Morning Joe. "It ain't so. It ain't so," he said. "This is not something that occurred." Wolfson dismissed it as a sign of the "situation" that the Obama campaign is in. "It did not happen," he said again.

First Read, however, spoke with Barber, who confirmed the "screw-em"

and now ANOTHER person who was at the meeting is talking about it.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/200 8/04/17/what_she_said/

I have gone back to my 1995 notes to check my recollections of the event. My notes do not have any exact words, so I am not going to try to corroborate a particular phrase from Hillary Clinton or any other speaker.

But what is clear in both in my memory and my notes is that there was extensive, hard-nosed discussion about why masses of voters did not support Clinton or trust government or base their choices on economic as opposed to what people saw as peripheral life-style concerns. Hillary Clinton was among the most cold-blooded analysts in attendance. She spoke of ordinary voters as if they were a species apart, and showed interest only in the political usefulness of their choices -- usefulness to the Clinton administration, that is.

so I  dunno, obviously people are still looking into this story, but they aren't talking about it?

is this going to turn into a weekend surprise?

There's more...

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