Oh Crap, first poll to have Obama up in PA!

this plays right into Hillary's hands, crap, this is exactly what we DON'T want.

the media will latch onto this and shift the expectations to Obama making it that he has to win or it shows he can't close the deal.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsm emo.com/2008/04/poll_gives_obama_the_lea d_in_p.php#comments

I am not even quoting the numbers you can follow the link and see for yourself.

but Obama supporters you have to remember to fight the expectation game, do NOT let them shift the burden to Obama, espeically 3 weeks out, this is what they did to him in Ohio and California, Hillary will win as we all know, but she will win small and some how that signals momentum for her, when she use t obe up 20+ points.

PPP is an outlier and I don't trust this poll at all, I will stick with h SUSA and know that obama is down 12, or the new Quinnipac that has him down 9.

but he is NOT up in PA, and no He won't win, so none of that Obama can't close stuff.

for those who really want to know


Obama 45% (+15)
Clinton 43% (-13)

There's more...

Chairman of 9/11 Commission Endorses Obama...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=a g9nXSjQZIlA&pid=20601070

April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has won the endorsement of one of his party's top foreign policy figures, Lee Hamilton, who hails from Indiana, home to one of the next crucial primary votes.

Hamilton, a former U.S. House member who co-chaired the commission that investigated the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and headed the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, said he was impressed by Obama's approach to national security and foreign policy.

now any Democrat who attacks Lee Hamilton as not knowing Foreign Policy, should be laughed at and mocked.

This endorsement lends major weight to his Foeign Policy creds.

said Hamilton:

``I read his national security and foreign policy speeches, and he comes across to me as pragmatic, visionary and tough,'' Hamilton said in an interview. ``He impresses me as a person who wants to use all the tools of presidential power.''

Hmmm if this guy is saying that Obama is better On foreign policy then Hillary OR Mccain, maybe this means something

Hamilton also sided with Obama on two foreign policy stances that have been criticized by Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, Obama's rival for the Democratic nomination, and Senator John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican nominee. Both have dismissed the Illinois senator, saying he doesn't have enough experience to deal with critical foreign policy matters.

``He wavers from seeming to believe that mediation and meetings without preconditions can solve some of the world's most intractable problems, to advocating rash, unilateral military action without cooperation from our allies in the most sensitive region of the world,'' Clinton said Feb. 25 in Washington.

Hamilton said he agreed with Obama's position on meeting with U.S. adversaries such as the leaders of Iran without conditions. Also, Obama's consideration of unilateral military action against terrorist hideouts in Pakistan, is already U.S. policy, Hamilton said.

this is a great pick up for Obama

The endorsement from Hamilton, who was on the short-list of former president Bill Clinton's 1992 vice presidential picks, may give a boost to Obama in Indiana, where polls show a tight race ahead of the May 6 primary.

Hamilton, who was also a co-chair of President George W. Bush's Iraq Study Group, served for 35 years in Congress, retiring in 1999. He is the president and director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and serves on Bush's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board and his Homeland Security Advisory Council.

There's more...

Question: Does the Popular Vote matter?

Answer: Only if Hillary Clinton actually wins it.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsm emo.com/2008/04/ickes_confirms_hes_been_ pushin.php

In the wide-ranging interview, Ickes also:

* Confirmed that the Hillary campaign could still try to woo super-dels even if she lost the popular vote, with Michigan and Florida counted

so let me get this straight this is all about EVERY vote counting, we have to seat Florida and Michigan because this is a democracy the democratic party, everyone's vote MUST count, we cant have another 2000!

but even IF we did seat Florida and Michigan,
but even IF Obama still won the popular vote

even if she lost the popular vote, with Michigan and Florida counted

This means EVEN if the Majority of the party chose Obama they would try and over turn this vote,

because once again the votes only "count" if they count for Hillary.

so please no more about how Obama wants to disenfranchise FL and MI and how they have to count,

because as the HRC campaign just said, even if they count, if Hillary loses, then what a MAJORITY of the party wanted,

Wouldn't matter.

figures.

There's more...

Hillary-Backing Congressman: "I Will Be Stunned" If Obama Isn't The Next President

for you Obama Supporters just a bit of a pick me up on the diary lists here.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsm emo.com/2008/04/hillarybacking_congressm an_i_w.php#comments

Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO), who is supporting Hillary Clinton, went seriously off-message in an interview with Canadian public radio.

"If I had to make a prediction right now, I'd say Barack Obama is going to be the next president," Cleaver said. "I will be stunned if he's not the next president of the United States."

they call it a message for a reason, what backers say on TV isn't necessarily what they know or believe.

"Earlier in the interview, he was asked about the race going all the way to the convention."If I do the party line, I'm supposed to say -- and maybe I'll say just so if anybody hears it they can say well, 'Cleaver did the party line before he told the truth,' -- we believe that a contest going all the way to the convention is good for America." He makes a football analogy of his support for Clinton."Even though I don't expect the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Indianapolis Colts, I cheer for the Kansas City Chiefs," he said, and goes on to cast it in terms of friendship and personal loyalty. If he switched to Obama, "There would be African-Americans cheering," Cleaver says. "But I would have difficulty shaving in the morning, unless I could shave without looking in the mirror."
original article is here http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0408/Cleavers_bluntness.html

There's more...

I want everyone to understand THIS is why we want Hillary out..

thanks to that other diary for pointing this out

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/03/30/my dd-watch-out-for-the-evil-gop-doing-some thing-like-this/

This is what they will do they won't make the attacks themselves, no they will say hey Hillary said this, is it true? or now all the GOP has to do is pass around Universals post like this site did now
it blurs the line, are the GOP doing a negative ad? or are they asking if Universal believes they will do a negative ad?

This is why people are calling for Hillary to drop out, this is the kind of stuff that will be repeated in the Fall,

Hillary said this... Hillary said that....

you guys keep saying the GOP will say this or that, no they won't

the GOP will say YOU said this or that, that way its not their fault for that information spreading around, it will be Democrats fault because we said it first.

Should Hillary be allowed to stay in? absolutely, but EVERYTIME she makes an attack, it will be used just like Universal's post was.

how many sites will Universal have to visit now to try and explain HE wasn't the one who made the video?

how many more sites will now come to MyDD to find their Obama attack material so they can say "Hey it came from a DEMOCRATIC site!"

There's more...

Get to know John Mccain on the Issues (Part 1)

Yes, I am back, and once again like I said i have moved on to the General Election. everyone on MyDD is still in the whole back and forth between Hillary and Obama which is fine, me? I feel its time we Got to know John McCain.

so I figure 1 by 1 (on slow McCain news days) we will go through his stances on issues found here:
http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issu es/1a8640f0-b2e3-4edb-b2a9-236df79d2579. htm

I thought it since it is so little talked about we would do:
Straight Talk on Health System Reform

John McCain believes that insurance reforms should increase the variety and affordability of insurance coverage available to American families by fostering competition and innovation.

   * Reform the tax code to eliminate the bias toward employer-sponsored health insurance, and provide all individuals with a $2,500 tax credit ($5,000 for families) to increase incentives for insurance coverage. Individuals owning innovative multi-year policies that cost less than the full credit can deposit remainder in expanded health savings accounts.
    * Families should be able to purchase health insurance nationwide, across state lines, to maximize their choices, and heighten competition for their business that will eliminate excess overhead, administrative, and excessive compensation costs from the system.
    * Insurance should be innovative, moving from job to home, job to job, and providing multi-year coverage.
    * Require any state receiving Medicaid to develop a financial "risk adjustment" bonus to high-cost and low-income families to supplement tax credits and Medicaid funds.
    * Allow individuals to get insurance through any organization or association that they choose: employers, individual purchases, churches, professional association, and so forth. These policies will be available to small businesses and the self-employed, will be portable across all jobs, and will automatically bridge the time between retirement and Medicare eligibility. These plans would have to meet rigorous standards and certification.

John McCain Believes in Personal Responsibility

   * We must do more to take care of ourselves to prevent chronic diseases when possible, and do more to adhere to treatment after we are diagnosed with an illness.
    * Childhood obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure are all on the rise. We must again teach our children about health, nutrition and exercise - vital life information.
    * Public health initiatives must be undertaken with all our citizens to stem the growing epidemic of obesity and diabetes, and to deter smoking.

the first thing I have to say is, Sen. Mccain proposes a Tax Credit for health care $2,500 for individuals and $5,000 for families the problem?

During the Year:
You pay $1,983, at tax time you can get back $1,983
but
During the Year:(but this time you can't AFFORD to pay during the year WITHOUT the credit)
You pay $0 since you need the credit first, you get back $0

tax credits are nice for those who can afford to pay BEFORE they get the credits.
but alot of americans are living check to check and don't have insurance simply because they can't afford it yet. Basically they need the credits first, this does nothing for those americans that can afford $2,500 NOW and must wait for credits.

add to that, McCain's credits are to low.

http://www.kff.org/insurance/ehbs092606n r.cfm

HEALTH INSURANCE PREMIUM GROWTH MODERATES SLIGHTLY IN 2006, BUT STILL INCREASES TWICE AS FAST AS WAGES AND INFLATION

Enrollment in Consumer-Directed Health Plans Remains Modest At 2.7 Million; Relatively Few Employers Expect To Adopt Such Plans Next Year

Washington, D.C. - Premiums for employer-sponsored health coverage rose an average 7.7 percent in 2006, less than the 9.2 percent increase recorded in 2005 and the recent peak of 13.9 percent in 2003, according to the 2006 Employer Health Benefits Survey released today by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Health Research and Educational Trust (HRET). Key findings from the survey were also published today as a Health Affairs Web Exclusive.

This year's survey recorded the slowest rate of premium growth since 2000, though premiums still increased more than twice as fast as workers' wages (3.8 percent) and overall inflation (3.5 percent). Premiums have increased 87 percent over the past six years. Family health coverage now costs an average $11,480 annually, with workers paying an average of $2,973 toward those premiums, about $1,354 more than in 2000.

and this was for 2006.

John McCain has very little substance when it comes to an actual plan for health care, instead we get what he (and most Americans) would like to see with our healthcare system, but no actual plans for it.

- Bringing costs under control is the only way to stop the erosion of affordable health insurance, save Medicare and Medicaid, protect private health benefits for retirees, and allow our companies to effectively compete around the world.
  • Families should be in charge of their health care dollars and have more control over their care. We can improve health and spend less, while promoting competition on the cost and quality of care, taking better care of our citizens with chronic illness, and promoting prevention that will keep millions of others from ever developing deadly and debilitating disease.
  • While we reform the system and maintain quality, we can and must provide access to health care for all our citizens - whether temporarily or chronically uninsured, whether living in rural areas with limited services, or whether residing in inner cities where access to physicians is often limited.
  • America's veterans have fought for our freedom. We should give them freedom to choose to carry their VA dollars to a provider that gives them the timely care at high quality and in the best location.

infact John McCain tells us how health care SHOULD work, but not HOW he will get it to do so.


  •  Families should be in charge of their health care dollars and have more control over their care. We can improve health and spend less, while promoting competition on the cost and quality of care, taking better care of our citizens with chronic
  • America's veterans have fought for our freedom. We should give them freedom to choose to carry their VA dollars to a provider that gives them the timely care at high quality and in the best location.
  • Controlling health care costs will take fundamental change - nothing short of a complete reform of the culture of our health system and the way we pay for it will suffice. Reforms to federal policy and programs should focus on enhancing quality while controlling costs:
* Reform the payment systems in Medicare to compensate providers for diagnosis, prevention, and care coordination. Medicare should not pay for preventable medical errors or mismanagement. (I assume then he means the people on Medicare should be the ones to pay? maybe use their tax credits?)
  •  Families should be able to purchase health insurance nationwide, across state lines, to maximize their choices, and heighten competition for their business that will eliminate excess overhead, administrative, and excessive compensation costs from the system.
  • Insurance should be innovative, moving from job to home, job to job, and providing multi-year coverage.

well, I guess McCain has found the problems with Healthcare, we apparently we never knew what we should do to fix it.

but now we do, question though is How?

Get to know your John McCain, The American President Americans have been waiting for, to fix healthcare?

There's more...

Mccain Doesn't know if condoms help stop Aids.

saw this on a diary at Daily kos, if you just read his interview is jaw dropping, just wow.

original source: http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/ 03/16/mccain-stumbles-on-hiv-prevention/

   Reporter: "Should U.S. taxpayer money go to places like Africa to fund contraception to prevent AIDS?"

      Mr. McCain: "Well I think it's a combination. The guy I really respect on this is Dr. Coburn. He believes - and I was just reading the thing he wrote- that you should do what you can to encourage abstinence where there is going to be sexual activity. Where that doesn't succeed, than he thinks that we should employ contraceptives as well. But I agree with him that the first priority is on abstinence. I look to people like Dr. Coburn. I'm not very wise on it."

      (Mr. McCain turns to take a question on Iraq, but a moment later looks back to the reporter who asked him about AIDS.)

      Mr. McCain: "I haven't thought about it. Before I give you an answer, let me think about. Let me think about it a little bit because I never got a question about it before. I don't know if I would use taxpayers' money for it."

      Q: "What about grants for sex education in the United States? Should they include instructions about using contraceptives? Or should it be Bush's policy, which is just abstinence?"

      Mr. McCain: (Long pause) "Ahhh. I think I support the president's policy."

      Q: "So no contraception, no counseling on contraception. Just abstinence. Do you think contraceptives help stop the spread of HIV?"

      Mr. McCain: (Long pause) "You've stumped me."

      Q: "I mean, I think you'd probably agree it probably does help stop it?"

      Mr. McCain: (Laughs) "Are we on the Straight Talk express? I'm not informed enough on it. Let me find out. You know, I'm sure I've taken a position on it on the past. I have to find out what my position was. Brian, would you find out what my position is on contraception - I'm sure I'm opposed to government spending on it, I'm sure I support the president's policies on it."

      Q: "But you would agree that condoms do stop the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Would you say: `No, we're not going to distribute them,' knowing that?"

      Mr. McCain: (Twelve-second pause) "Get me Coburn's thing, ask Weaver to get me Coburn's paper that he just gave me in the last couple of days. I've never gotten into these issues before."

so basically Mccain knows Foreign Policy (sometimes) and thats it.

Wow

There's more...

Obama Supporters, its time to move to the GE...

If you support Obama, or those that can have an honest discussion about the math. then its time to move on to the General Election.

John Mccain has a very, very favored position with the media meaning that while Hillary and Barack fight it out, they are focusing on the primaries not the GE.

Rachael Maddow said it best:

I feel like I`ve become kind of a semi-pro listener to the news, where I`m always listening for Democratic candidates and even their surrogates to say John McCain.  Every time I hear them say it, a little bell goes off in my mind, because that`s what I think Democrats--anybody who has an interest in John McCain not becoming president, whether or not you support Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton or Ralph Nader or anybody else in the race, Mike Gravel as the Libertarian, if you want John McCain to not win, you have to start hitting him now, because the default position of the press toward John McCain is so positive that unless other candidates are actively and specifically going after him all the time, his free ride takes him right to the White House.

so yes, let Hillary supporters yell that Hillary will win, thats fine but Obama supporters its time to spend less engergy countering and tearing down Hillary and time to go after Mccain. he can no longer be allowed to slip under the radar, if he messes up then make diaries about THAT. Its time to stop ignoring John Mccain and focusing our energy on the Primary, if you are an Obama supporter you already believe that Obama has it won, so stop posting primary polls, or stop quoting daily tracking polls, lets focus on the real enemey. like this

McCain guru linked to subprime crisis
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/030 8/9246.html

The general co-chairman of John McCain's presidential campaign, former Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Texas), led the charge in 1999 to repeal a Depression-era banking regulation law that Democrat Barack Obama claimed on Thursday contributed significantly to today's economic turmoil.

"A regulatory structure set up for banks in the 1930s needed to change because the nature of business had changed," the Illinois senator running for president said in a New York economic speech. "But by the time [it] was repealed in 1999, the $300 million lobbying effort that drove deregulation was more about facilitating mergers than creating an efficient regulatory framework.

This man shall not be allowed to be the next president. Its time to stop engaging Hillary supporters they can and will say and think what they want, but the rest of the party across the internet needs to switch and focus on John Mccain.

we have seen it before, if we are talking about it on the blogs, it will get media play, so lets get those John Mccain negatives some play starting now.

There's more...

A Serious Discussion why MI/FL won't be seated as is.

Ok this will be a seriously discussion about why MI/FL won't be seated as is.

if you want to flame or spin, please we have PLENTY of other diaries for you to do it in, have at it! just not here.

ok before we can begin talking about a solution we have to understand the problem.

The DNC is the leadership of the Democratic party, they make the rules, if you want to be in this party you follow them. (just like your state, you want to live there you follow their rules, you don't like it then you leave the state.)

They make the rules, and in a effort to help some states and demographics have a say in the primary they chose 4 states that represented different parts of the electorate (thats why the 4 states were so different) and said THESE 4 go first, everyone else has to wait till Feb. 5th.

Everyone agreed but 2 states, they wanted to be more important and have weight so they moved up their votes, the DNC told them they wouldn't sanction the votes, Florida and Michigan wanted to cal the bluffs, and their votes were not Sanctioned. THUS when it comes to the DNC officially those votes never happened, MI and FL have yet to hold a sanctioned primary. now why can't we all just pretend that the vote was sanction and seat them?

1) legal issues, but we aren't dealing with that one,
2) the DNC as a governing body MUST maintain their legitimacy as a governing body, if they make a rule and a state violates it, and they do nothing, then in 2012 the DNC has told EVERY state do what you want, we will do nothing. The DNC absolutely 100% will never do this, they will not allow their authority to be undermined in that way, they would lose all power to run the democratic party.

so what do we do?
here is the problem

you can complain all you want but as you learned in 2000, the popular vote does NOT decide the nominee (or the president) sure it may need to be changed (I disagree I think we still need the electoral college), but you don't get to change it in the middle of the primary, regardless of what you want to believe the National Campaigns agreed to how the primary would work, Hillary is bound by the rules she signed to when she entered the race.

DELEGATES WILL DECIDE THE NOMINEE. plain and simply, you want to argue that is wrong and we should decide them another way, go ahead just not here. here we are facing reality, (and face it the supers on more then once occasion have more then hinted the Delegate leader will be the nominee)

visit this site here: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ florida-and-michigan-by-numbers.html

it lays out all the different delegate counts if you count FL and MI, in different scenarios

you will notice that in ONLY 1 scenario, (Sitting both states as is, and NOT giving Obama the MI uncommitted) will Hillary TIE Obama in delegates

in every other scenario she will trail, and by most peoples estimates they are expected to split the remaining states and delegates, thus in only 1 of 6 possible situations do we leave the primaries with Hillary TIED with Obama.
the least likely of the scenarios is the one that Hillary wants the most. and it won't happen.

They both know it, and thus they both don't REALLY care right now about resolving the situation, Hillary wanted revotes, she won't get them so now the MI/FL situation are only used for talking points,

as Dean as noted:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/28 /dean-bickering-democrats_n_93865.html

Dean also said the Michigan and Florida delegates will be seated at the convention. But he won't force a resolution because he said there's nothing the Obama and Clinton campaigns can support at this point.

"You bring both sides together and say, `Don't you think it's time that the two campaigns made a deal on how we're going to do this?'" Dean said. "Let me just say that the campaigns believe that kind of a deal is premature right now."

Focus on how he says BOTH campaigns believe its premature,

Hillary knows options 1-5 do nothing for her, they leave her behind in delegates, and that doesn't help her win.

Florida and Michigan WILL be seated, just not in a way that will effect the race to give Hillary the nomination.

and it has nothing to do with Hillary, its the DNC and its relationship with states, it has a vested interest NOW to show the state parties that they are in charge and in the future if you are told not to do something, don't do it because they will follow through with their punishment.

here is some delegate math for the rest of the season using realistic numbers, (sorry but saying Hillary will win  PA by 60-65% of the vote is not realistic and goes against EVERYTHING we have seen, all polls, and all trending data)

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/tal k/2008/03/obamas-magic-number-75-superde .php

I gave Hillary significant victories in PA (+8), KY (+8), WV (+12), and PR (+10).

I gave Obama significant victories in NC (+12), OR (+8), SD (+15), MT (+15).

I also counted IN and Guam as virtual ties. I did not include FL and MI. The result, according to Slate's delegate counter, would leave Obama with 1694 pledged delegates and Clinton with 1540.

you can do it yourself here: http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

if you do please post your numbers, because once again giving Hillary 65% in PA, but saying they tie in NC is unrealistic and makes your calculations based on a faulty premise and not grounded in reality. I mean sure if Hillary won 100% in all 10 states she would win, but its not likely just like Hillary winning all 10 states by 60% is not likely, (Hillary winning even 1 state by 60% would be a tough argument to make)

I am not saying it is fair what is happening to Michigan or Florida, thats not my business to say, if those residents don't like it they should talk to their leaders who created this situation and vote them out of office. but the DNC has more then just 2 states to worry about, and sure it may be politically expedient for the 2008 elections to just seat them.

but in the long run the DNC and its relationship to state democratic parties, and the party has a whole is greatly compromised and damaged if the states are seated as is. it won't happen.

Option 6 will never happen. the question is will be be Options 1-5 or is there another option available.

sadly none of them will help Hillary in the way she wants so she is not focusing on it. that is why now Obama is calling for a way to seat the delegates and Hillary not so much. they both know that getting them seated through a compromise only helps Obama because

1) they will NEVER be seated in a way that greatly affects the delegate count
leading into
2) Hillary has no realistic way to get the pledged delegate lead.

The pledged Delegate leader will be the nominee (you wanna debate this make a diary and we can)

There's more...

WHA?!?! Obama, Not Clinton, Pressing For Florida Delegates Solution

still think she just wasn't playing politics to get her popular and delegate totals up?

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/03/o bama-reaches-o.html

The Hillary Clinton campaign has yet to express any interest in negotiating a solution to Florida's delegate mess, but a couple key Barack Obama staffers - delegate operations director Jeff Berman and political director Matt Nugen called state Democratic chairwoman Karen Thurman to talk about possible ways to give Florida a voice in the nomination.

"We're just looking for solutions," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton.

they want a solution if it involves a re-vote, just seating the delegates? apparently not enough anymore

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/03/t he-audacity-of.html

"When it comes to voting, Sen. Obama is turning the audacity of hope into the audacity of nope,'' Hillary Clinton campaign spokesman Phil Singer said on a campaign conference call.

Adviser Harold Ickes, who was among the DNC rules committee members to strip all of Florida's delegates away, continues to insist that Florida can hold a do-over primary, though almost no one in Florida agrees. The campaign brushed off any talk of negotiating a compromise to ensure Florida and Michigan get delegates seated.

"We don't see any need for that,'' Singer said of negotiating. "There's plenty of time to have re-dos."

wasn't the important thing getting these delegates seated?

I am not sure on the rules on quoting other posters from other diaries, but some of the more notable posters here have said the delegates must be seated.

Isn't that what we all wanted?

There's more...

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