Hillary Has Balls and Coattails
by Todd Bennett, Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 03:14:17 AM EDT
TarHeel wrote a diary that I could refer to as nothing less than putrid about Hillary's "drag" potential on down ballot races. I will tell you what a drag is: A wannabe with limited experience as anything other than a lawyer who fails to get out from under his wife's shadow and is better known for his haircut than his policy.
But wait, I forgot. He is a Southern white protestant male landowner so it should be fine. Silly me. I am so sick of the Hillary can't make it thing. Or the Hillary is so polarizing thing. Or the baggage thing. Here is a polling thing: http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?dia ryId=938 According to Chris, Hillary not only wins right now, she realigns the map. Carries Texas against Romney, and probably would even against Giuliani. Now who do you think is really more worried? Tim Johnson if we nominate Hillary or John Cornyn if they nominate Romney?
One Hillary supporter, georgep, calls it a poverty of argument, and I would have to agree. When your candidate can give no good reason as to why you should vote for him or her, I supppose you have no choice other than to dredge up myth. And the Hillary is unelectable thing is a myth. Check out Quinnipiac on Ohio with Todd Beeton's analysis:
Candidate Sept. 6 July 12 May 16 Net Change on Favorability:
Edwards 54/26 46/29 44/29 +13
Clinton 51/43 49/42 46/45 +7
Obama 47/25 45/22 42/22 +2
McCain 44/28 40/31 45/28 -1
Giuliani 48/30 50/27 54/26 -10
Note that this is the first time that Clinton's favorability has been over 50% and Giuliani's has been under 50%. Clearly, the more voters get to know these candidates, their previously majority-held preconceptions (in Rudy's case, positive, and in Clinton's case, negative) get reversed. It's also interesting that McCain is seeing an uptick, certainly reflecting the sentiments of the Luntz post-debate focus group last night where people appear to be giving McCain a second (or third or fourth) look. And then of course, there's the Edwards surge, which so far is not reflected in his Ohio Dem primary numbers (he's in 3rd at 11% -- actually slightly down from May -- although keep in mind that Gore is included) but a surge there is something to look for.
What we're seeing here, folks, are blue state-like numbers.
It should be noted that Edwards ranks better in this department, yet the key thing to look at is Hillary's ability to swing opinion from negative to positive which is presenting itself in polling all over the country. In this article,http://archive.salon.com/politics/war_ro om/2005/05/04/kerry/index.html John Zogby is quoted as saying Hillary can take "the somewhat unfavorables and turn them into somewhat favorables".
Also, an excerpt on the lessons of electability from a winger, Robert Moran with polling evidence: http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/mo ran200405071254.asp
Just how bad has Kerry been shredded by the Bush campaign? A quick review of the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey shows that Kerry's image dropped from 43-percent positive to 30-percent negative in March 2004 to 38-percent positive to 38-percent negative currently. In other words, the Bush campaign, despite all the cheerleading for Kerry in the press, was able to reduce Kerry's favorables by five points and increase Kerry's negatives by eight points.
Point is, Edwards can tout "electabiity" all he wants, it comes down to responding to attacks, and the Clintons are masterful at it. Edwards may want you to think he is electable, but he can not even fend off stories about his haircut, much less stand up to the mighty machine of smear. "Lightweight" is the word I believe.
Hillary? She can fight and swing polls in her favor and that is clear. The bottom line is that Democrats want her on the front line, period. Her favorables are huge among Democrats and she is seen as someone who win or lose, won't
have any bullets left in her gun. Something many Democrats, including myself, question about the others. It takes balls to win, guys. Don't blame Hillary, a woman, for having the biggest pair.