Good Call, Stu...

I did a quick Google search of "Stuart Rothenberg" and "predictions" to see what I can find.  Is he an expert prognosticator, or simply the political incarnation of ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr.

Tons of results showed.  So, instead of doing all the "DD" myself, I thought, let's "open source" this project.  I will start in the extended entry with the first displayed result from my Google search.

It might be a fun project, don't ya think?  Maybe not.  Either way, I'll start with 1996 since it was the first year that I found.  As a suggestion, let's try not to select predictions that happen a mere few weeks before an occurence/election.  He is, after all, the best.

I'll give you a hint.  It doesn't look to good for a guy that makes a living pontificating.  Oops, I meant to say prognosticating. Seriously. I did.

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Seriously, raise your blog ad prices

I write this diary as a service to Chris because I feel bad for anyone that buys Ramen noodles by the crate.  Besides, when I get down to Philly, I want drinks to be on him occassionally.

Check it out:

Premium Ad on MyDD for one month: $300
Regular Blog Ad on MyDD for one month: $220

My employer will kill me when he sees this, but the way I see it, there are three reasons you should raise em today.

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Canton, Ohio: A disaffected union town

For the last eight months before the 2004 election, I lived in a union town.  As a matter of fact, I believe I lived in THE union town.

Once upon a time there was Republic Steel, Flemming Foods, Rubbermaid, and Timken (among many others).  The first three have disappeared from the 16th district of Ohio.  The final employer, Timken, is threatening to layoff 1,300 workers and close down three union shops.  And these aren't just any plants; Timken is the largest employer and tax payer in Canton, Ohio.  They have also been around for over 100 years.

Gone.  Two months after the company announced record profits.  Isn't that amzing?

Obviously this post was inspired by Chris's "rant" on the front page.  I felt like I wanted to put "on paper" some of my rudimentary impressions/observations about labor and its growing disconnect with the Democratic Party.  

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The Small Blog as the Small Donor of 2006/2008

You couldn't escape it.  During the 2004 election cycle, Internet fundraising was all the rage.  From Howard Dean's $40 million, DailyKos and ActBlue, to Terry McAuliffe receiving credit, some of it undeserved, for leveraging the small donor to pull even with GOP fundraising efforts.

That's great - for whatever the real reasons - the Democratic Party did a terrific job of using the Internet to raise money in small amounts as a counter to a traditional GOP advantage.  But guess what?  The Republican (Noise) Machine will learn, and we had best get ahead of the curve.

If the small donor was the phenomenon of the 2004 election cycle, the small blogger might very well be the next great hope for the Democrats.  

(Disclamier): I work for a candidate running for US Senate in Pennsylvania named Chuck Pennacchio: He is an American History Professor in PA and former Field Director for Sen. Paul Simon among countless other qualificiations.

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Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District

Great stuff this--I'll have the second part of the Taking Back the House series later today--Chris

Great piece by Steven Porter's 2004 campaign manager, Pete Zeigler, on the 3rd CD of Pennsylvania. Porter (D) challenged incumbent Phil English (R) and received 40% of the vote despite getting outspent 5-1. Pete gave me permission to link the piece on Swing State Project; he is actually an avid reader of MyDD as well. -- ttagaris

Over the past two months, there has been much debate over how many House races the Dems should target, what criteria to use, how much support unwinnable races should get, etc. I want to give an example of where and why our current targeting is severely flawed, and why we must look more broadly at the races we give our support to.

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Lowering the bar on mandates

Good news and bad from a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll just released yesterday. The good news is that people seem to think President Bush is handling Social Security poorly. They also believe imposing a retirement tax (AKA privatization) is a bad idea.

The bad news is that the public is buying into Republican frames of "crisis" and the need to act immediately to save social security. Unfortunately, I fear these numbers are a precursor to growing support for privatization as fear mongering continues to take hold.

With the president using his bully pulpit and allied organizations spending millions of dollars like this is a presidential campaign, we need voices from the left responding to rebut these Republican frames.  This effort needs to be concerted, consistent, and funded at the same level as Republican counter-efforts.  If we fail to act seriously, you can expect an end to the most successful social program of the last century.

Numbers below the jumpity jump...

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Reclaim the Party: Fight in the Primaries

Late last night, Chris Bowers dropped an excellent diary on DailyKos about maximizing our efforts to determine the face/direction of the Democratic Party.

Thankfully the post was recommended despite the late hour.  I wanted to take an opportunity to expand upon one brief sentence excluded from the bullet points.

I had a lot more influence over the party back in 2002 when I didn't pay attention to the midterms until September, never donated and never spent any time working with the Democratic Party.

There are quite a few here who are disgruntled with the direction of the Democratic Party.  Many more who want, and are searing for, a way to influence that direction.  To that I say...

Get Involved in the Primaries!

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Ohio 2006: Governor & Senate Races

Ohio potentially offers 2 of the most hotly contested races in the 2006 election cycle.  By virtue of the status that accompanies these seats, and the fact that they are in Ohio -- focus on these races will not be spared by media, party, and pundits alike.

So, let's take a first look?

Current Governor of Ohio: Bob Taft (Term Limited)

Current Senator up for re-election: Mike DeWine

More below the jump...

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My ATM Pin Number - Or Fundraising On-line

Much has been made in recent days about the Kerry campaign's attempts to withdraw, over and over again, from the ATM machine known as the netroots.  Whether it is discussions about the endless fundraising emails to folks in non "swing states," or Kos's contention that, "we aren't going to put out for campaigns without getting something in return;" the topic has been in the blogs as of late.

Kos also said something that I overlooked the first time I read his post, but might be the most important quote in the entire piece.

Did the Dean campaign win? No. But there's a reason people are still loyal to Dean even after Kerry has been abandoned by legions of Democrats. Unlike Kerry's effort, what Dean and Trippi built was the stuff of political movements, and it was built on a foundation of communication.

Maybe John Kerry didn't need a political movement; he needed us for seven months.  But only one race every four years is for the presidency.  

For the other 468 federal races every 2 years, look below the jump...

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State Party Blog Project: Last Call Before Moving Ahead

For those unfamiliar, the project is to:

1.) Convince all 50 state parties that blogs have an important place on their webpages

2.) Help them put the blog up, if necessary.

3.) Talk to them about the importance of not only putting a blog on their webpage, but using it.  Consistently.

I am willing to take on much of the burden of contacting and following up with individual states if necessary.  However, I think it would demonstrate alot if many of us got involved in the effort.  Not to mention save me alot of time.

So, below you will find a list of remaining states.  Please, please, please adopt one in the comments section (by leaving your email addres and state selected) if you are willing to put in the time and follow through on the task.

For everyone that has "adopted a state," expect an email from me later this week.  We are about ready to move forward.

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