Help! I need a roommate to share a 2 or 3 BR condo at Netroots Nation! Only 2 blocks from CC.

Sorry for repeating this, but I'm still looking...

I'm looking for a roommate for NN.  You'd have your own bedroom in a 2BR or 3BR condo, very, very close to the convention center, right on 6th St. in the entertainment district. It's about two blocks according to Google Maps.

If you want to be in the center of it all, get a cheaper room than the nearby hotels, all while maintaining some privacy, get in touch.

Assuming a 2BR condo, your cost would be about $312, which covers a Wednesday check-in with Monday morning check-out (5 nights).  The nightly cost for the whole thing is cheaper than two nights at the Hilton (it works out to $125 per night, including tax, for the whole condo -- or about $63 per bedroom per night).  The cost goes down a bit if a 3 bedroom condo is split 3 ways.  You would also save by not needing a car, parking, and you can self cater if you want, since the condos have kitchens.

A 3BR shared 3 ways is also an option.

I'm very keen to find a roommate because my backup housing is several miles away and would require a car rental.  This looks like a seriously cool alternative to the expensive hotels.

More about your potential roommate after the flip...

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Need roommate for 2BR condo near CC at Netroots Nation

I'm looking for a roommate for NN.  You'd have your own bedroom in a 2BR situation, very, very close to the convention center, right on 6th St.  It's about two block according to Google Maps.

If you want to be in the center of it all, get a cheaper room than the nearby hotels, all while maintaining some privacy, get in touch.

Your cost would be about $312, which covers a Wednesday check-in with Monday morning check-out (5 nights).  The nightly cost for the whole thing is cheaper than a room at the Hilton et al.  There is also a $200 refundable deposit that I will have to pay.  I'd ask for a check for $100 that I'd mail back to you when I got mine back.

The only downsides I am aware of: you must pay cash upon arrival (or money order / cashiers check) and it's so close to the party district as to be noisy.  The noise is not a problem for me -- I sleep fine with earplugs and recommend them if this is the only reason you'd pass this up.

There is, I understand, also a pullout sofa in a loft over the living area.  A third roommate could take that and reduce costs further, but I don't really see the need.

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Great turnout in Republican CDs in California (from Calitics)

From a post on Calitics:

Of the Republican leaning districts, Dem turnout was higher in 8 and close in several others.

Looks there if we do well in November and Obama or Hillary has coattails, we could pick up a few seats we do not expect to...

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Super Tuesday Election Contest

My latest election contest is ready (cutting it close to the wire).  I do this primarily by email, but thought I'd post here and open it up to others.  Feel free to invite anyone who might be interested to enter, as long as they do so by about Noon PST Tuesday, Feb. 5.

INTRODUCTION

Finally, the Super Tuesday contest.  I'll allow entries until about Noon PST Tuesday.  I'm not sure things will be any more clear in 26 hours than they are now.

There's so much happening Tuesday that one could ask a bunch of different questions.  Please answer at least the main contest question and the tie breakers.

Some people have expressed interest in other questions, so those will follow.  They'll be treated as separate contests and are optional.

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A simplistic model for estimating delegates

Cross posted from my comment on OpenLeft.com:

So I just did a quick spreadsheet on the delegate situation.  If the undecideds and unviable candidates are taken out, we have a 59/41 allocation of delegates before rounding.
There are 241 district level delegates.  The 53 CDs have the follow number of delegates, followed by the delegate allocation assuming every CD exactly reflects the statewide polling (ha!):  
2 CDs: 3 delegates (that's 2 Clinton, 1 Obama per CD)
26 CDs: 4 delegates (2 Clinton, 2 Obama)
19 CDs: 5 delegates (3 Clinton, 2 Obama)
6 CDs: 6 delegates (4 Clinton, 2 Obama)

That gives us 137 Clinton, 104 Obama for the district delegates.

Now we do the statewide part.  My read of the rules is that all statewide delegates (at-large and PLEO) are apportioned proportionally among the viable candidates.  If I'm wrong about that, please correct me.

81 at-large delegates: 48 Clinton, 33 Obama
48 pledged PLEOs: 28 Clinton, 20 Obama
Total based on statewide vote: 76 Clinton, 53 Obama

Grand total for delegates allocated on Feb. 5:
Clinton 213
Obama 157

Difference: 56 delegates

Now even if the poll today reflects exactly the statewide vote and the undecideds broke like the decides, that's not to say this would be the result.  I have no idea how variations is geography would affect things.  In general, if Obama does better in over-represented CDs (as happened in Nevada, for example), the total could be closer.

Or he could already be benefiting from favorable rounding enough that this could be close to a ceiling for this statewide breakdown.  He's already evenly splitting the delegates in the 4-delegate CDs.  He has to break 50% to get the fifth delegate in the 5-delegate and 3-delegate CDs.  So, until his total goes to 50%, he 'only' picks up statewide delegates and, at some point, takes the 6th delegate in the 8 6-delegate CDs from Clinton.  The next tipping point to get a lot of delegates is the magic 50%, at which point 21 delegates magically flip.

Of course, the actual results don't work like that, since the vote breakdown will certainly not be uniform statewide.  But it's useful to see where the magic numbers are in each CD.

commissar added the following (which is completely correct):

I think there is an advantage for Clinton, with her strong Hispanic support, vs. Obama's strong black support, both of which is geographically concentrated.

Just to illustrate, I'll use the four-del. CDs:
26 CDs: 4 delegates (2 Clinton, 2 Obama) = 52 + 52 each

Let's assume that nine of them are heavily ethnic districts: six Hispanic and three black. Then assume in all nine, that support skews the results up to a 3-1 split. This gives us

17 split = 34 + 34
  6 Hisp. = 18 + 6
  3 Black = 3 + 9
26 TOTAL = 55 + 49

Again, my math is arbitrary, but I think the geo. concentration of ethnic supporters works to Hillary's advantage, because the variation in results will not break evenly.

I'll state this another way: To the extent we see CDs with big majorities that disrupt your model (and we will), those will tend to favor Clinton by approx 2:1, because of ethnic pockets.

So, yes -- I wasn't even attempting to estimate what regional variations would do to the results.  And they are more likely to skew the delegate count than to balance out to no net effect.  

For one thing, if two candidates have roughly equal support, but A has it spread out throughout a state and B has concentrated support in a region (or, say, the cities), A will get more delegates.  In Iowa, Clinton and Edwards were probably helped by the system a bit.  In NV and NH, Obama was.

In a further note, I used the same model for New York and Illinois based on the latest poll on pollster.com.  The results:

New York:
HRC 51 / BHO 25  / JRE 11 / Oth 2 / Und 11
Renormalized after viability:
HRC 67 / BHO 33
150 HRC delegates / 85 BHO delegates = HRC +65

Illinois
HRC 25 / BHO 50 / JRE 11 / Oth 2 / Und 11
Renormalized
HRC 33 / BHO 67
61 HRC delegates / 120 BHO delegates = BHO +59

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Crit Luallen and the KY "bench"

I haven't seen this mentioned here, but my impression of the Democratic "bench" in Kentucky (I grew up there -- moved away 6 years ago or so, so I'm not quite as up to date as I used to be) is that just as significant as electing a governor (and lt. gov.) this time, we have set ourselves up with a strong bench.  

The '94 congressional elections and the aftermath of Gov. Patton's (D-Corrupt) adminstation left the Kentucky Democratic Party in a sad state.  We had no statewide farm team to groom for higher office.

What a difference now!  In addition to electing Steve Beshear governor, new Treasurer Jack Conway and reelected Auditor Crit Luallen will go on to run for higher office.  And Lt. Gov.-Elect Dr. Dan Mongiardo (who lost the squeaker in '04 against US Sen. Bunning (R)) has has his political fortunes dramatically revived.

But the most significant of these may be Crit Luallen.  To quote the Bluegrass Report (sorry for the lengthy quote -- please go check out BGR):

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