I can kind of think of what he was doing with the Palin pick. He saw someone who took on her own party and ran against corruption. He had a great narrative going with the mavericks thing. She had a similar anti-pork ethos AND she was popular with the base. What more could he want?
...And then it turned out that the anti-pork thing was largely false. It was when they couldn't use the, "thanks but no thanks line," that things started to fall apart. Without that, there was no narrative and with no narrative, ours could take over. If the bridge to nowhere story were true, Palin might have a different reputation now, but it wasn't so... well... HA HA!
"311 MCCAIN (all bush states + PA, NH)
227 OBAMA (all kerry states - PA, -NH)
51-52% pop MCCAIN
47-48% pop OBAMA (1% other)
***Possible "i wouldnt' be shocked" surprises:
-MCCAIN : winning ME-2nd district, winning MN, winning NJ, winning ME outright, losing CA by 2-4 points, winning either OR or WA (not both), winning WI or MI (not both), taking 15% of the black vote, 40+% of the hispanic vote
-OBAMA : winning pop vote but losing electoral college, losing MN/WI/MI, winning Illinois by 15 pts or less, winning New York by 10 pts, losing Montana/NorthDakota/Indiana by 20+ pts"
There's a difference between confidence and insanity :)