May 28, 2004 Electoral map
by thezzyzx, Thu May 29, 2008 at 10:36:47 AM EDT
Andrew Sullivan put up this map from May of 2004:
This is why electability arguments can only go so far. Look at that map and wonder how that happened. Ohio AND Florida should have gone to Kerry, let alone states like Nevada.
Polls in May can be used to create a valid argument, but even if you ignore reasons why Clinton might be polling better than Obama now, Obama would have to be around 100 EVs and Clinton at 400 for them to really spook superdelegates. Remember that they're the opposite of low information voters; they've seen this process many times before.