Hillary's Swing State Advantage
by TexasDarlin, Wed May 28, 2008 at 10:25:06 AM EDT
The Obama camp contends that Clinton's performance in the primaries is not indicative of her performance in the general election.
A new Gallup study suggests otherwise:
Swing states won by Clinton, excluding Florida and Michigan:
Swing states won by Clinton, including Florida and Michigan:
In the 20 states where Hillary Clinton has claimed victory in the 2008 Democratic primary and caucus elections (winning the popular vote), she has led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general election over the past two weeks of Gallup Poll Daily tracking by 50% to 43%. In those same states, Barack Obama is about tied with McCain among national registered voters, 45% to 46%.
In contrast, in the 28 states and the District of Columbia where Obama has won a higher share of the popular vote against Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries and caucuses, there is essentially no difference in how Obama and Clinton each fare against McCain. Both Democrats are statistically tied with him for the fall election.
The Gallup study directly supports Clinton's assertion that she will be a stronger general-election candidate against John McCain in crucial battleground states, based on her primary election performance. Obama, on other hand, cannot claim a similar advantage.Cross posted at TexasDarlin