How the rest of the campaign will play out...
by telephasic, Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:09:40 AM EST
I'm totally pulling some of this out of my ass, based upon what I know about the states involved and the demographics. But my two cents...
The next two weeks are clear advantage Obama. I can't see anything Hillary can do that will stop this.
Feb 9: Louisiana - everyone says this will be Obama in a walk because the state is 1/3 African American. But the Louisiana state party is the most conservative in the country. On the other hand, the local Dems, like many other states, may be more apt to endorse Obama I think due to down-ticket fears. I'd say the advantage here is narrowly Obama, but this Clinton's best bet for stopping the Obama train.
Feb 9: Nebraska - A caucus in the midwest. Obama cleaned up in Kansas and North Dakota, and I expect he will also in this state.
Feb 9: Washington - A big prize. The mayor of Seattle has recently endorsed Obama IIRC, and a recent SurveyUSA poll showed Obama 13 points ahead. This is also a caucus state. This will be a big win for Obama.
Feb 9: US Virgin Islands - Only three delegates for this primary. In small, overseas territories typically the machine handles the turnout, but with the USVI being majority black, I think Obama should win this.
Feb 10: Maine - Demographically, this state would be good for Clinton, as it's in the Northeast, is almost totally white, and doesn't have the "wine track" element that Connecticut does. However, it is a caucus, which gives Obama a big advantage. Maine is also big on bipartisanship, and has some cultural similarities to the Western states Obama is doing well in. He seems poised for a win here unless the local machine backs Clinton and beats activist turnout.
Feb 12: DC - Obama in a walk.
Feb 12: Maryland - Clinton has more institutional support, but Obama has the endorsement of the mayor of Baltimore, which should really help turnout. IIRC, polls showed him in the lead even before super Tuesday.
Feb 12: Virginia - Unlike many states, Obama has the institutional advantage here. I'd say he will win, but by less of a margin than DC or Maryland. Clinton has a shot of taking this if she can turn out white, moderate-to-conservative working-class voters.
Feb 19: Hawaii - While Clinton cleaned up in California among Asian voters, given Hawaii is a home state to Obama (sort of), and a caucus, I'd say he has a clear advantage.
Feb 19: Wisconsin - Clinton has a chance to hold off Obama's momentum here, but I still say it leans Obama. As a primary, it won't be a blowout like Minnesota, but between turnout in Madison and Milwaukee, some spillover from the neighbor effect with Illinois, and Obama performing well in rural areas, I'd give him a narrow edge.
Likely Obama: NE, WA, USVI, DC, MD, HI
Lean Obama: LA, ME, VA, WI
March is a chance for Clinton to make a big comeback. The question is, if Obama carries the table, will she be competitive by next month?
Mar 4: Ohio - At first, I thought the state would be a likely Clinton blowout. Now I'm not so sure - I think it will be a tossup like Missouri as things stand now. Both states are around 86%-87% white and 12% black. Neither state has a substantial Latino population. Both states have similar per-capita income. Both states have nearly identical population spreads. Finally, both states are primaries. It's gonna be close, very close! Given the Obama momentum, I'd say Ohio looks bad for Hillary, She must win something before Ohio to keep this a toss-up.
Mar 4: Rhode Island - This is a fairly working-class northeastern state. Hillary should win by a similar or wider margin than Massachusetts.
Mar 4: Texas - Advantage Hillary here I think, though recent polls put Obama only 10 points behind. One thing I've read is 1/4th of the delegates are selected via a caucus. Because of this, I think Hillary will win by a more narrow margin than would be expected, but I don't see, without major momentum, Obama winning this
Mar 4: Vermont - Clear advantage Obama. Around the country, Dean voters have been the most likely to support Obama, and that should continue here. Also, it's more upscale and rural than much of New England, with less of the dying mill towns that Hillary is raking in the big points on. Finally, the areas of Massachusetts and New Hampshire that Obama did the best in are the parts most like Vermont (Western Mass and the Keene region respectively).
Mar 8: Wyoming - Western state, and the last caucus - Clear Obama win
Mar 11: Mississippi - African-Americans actually make up far more of the population than neighboring Alabama (37% versus 26%). Obama will win this in a walk.
Likely Obama: VT, WY, MS
Toss Up: OH
Lean Clinton: TX
Likely Clinton: RI
Rest of the Race:
April 22: Pennsylvania - My current home state. Given the demographics (one of the oldest states in the country), and the support of the machine, I'd say this is a Clinton win. Obama will not go over well in most of the Pittsburgh area, leaving hin with Philly and the Philly burbs to try to eke out a decent margin.
May 3: Guam - I don't have a clue, but judging by American Samoa, I think this leans Clinton.
May 6: Indiana - I'd say Obama has a narrow edge here, given he does well overall in the Midwest, he's from a neighboring state, and there is no state Democratic machine.
May 6: North Carolina - Large African-American population and growing professional class speak good things for Obama. I'd say watch Obama's win in Virginia, as it's an indicator of his absolute floor in NC. The one thing which may work against him here is the Dixiecrat side of the party never truly died off on the State level, though I'm not sure these conservative Dems have a dog in the race either way.
May 13: West Virginia - As a culturally somewhat Southern state lacking a substantial African American base, as well as an old state, I expect Clinton to do well here.
May 20: Kentucky - Should be very similar to West Virginia, or neighboring Tennessee. A Clinton win.
May 20: Oregon - Given Obama is polling well in Washington, I am guessing he will also have an appeal in Oregon.
June 1: Puerto Rico - Unless Obama sews up the nomination, or engages in major outreach, he will probably lose this, though a word of caution is Puerto Ricans may not vote similarly to other Latinos, as a substantial amount are of African descent, and they have enjoyed historically better relationships than Mexicans with the African-American community.
June 3: Montana - Western state, should be a clear Obama win if the nomination is still in contention this late in the game.
June 3: South Dakota - Another western state which should be a clear Obama win.
Summary for rest of the race:
Likely Obama: NC, MT, SD
Lean Obama: IN, OR
Lean Clinton: PA
Likely Clinton: Guam, WV, KY, PR
Conclusions: There are now two possible outcomes I see, and it all comes down to Ohio. If Clinton wins Ohio, she can win the nomination, provided she maintains a superdelegate edge and manages to get Michigan and Florida seated. If Obama wins Ohio by any margin, or only loses by a few percent, I don't see any way Clinton can win the nomination with any legitimacy.