How the rest of the campaign will play out...

I'm totally pulling some of this out of my ass, based upon what I know about the states involved and the demographics.  But my two cents...

The next two weeks are clear advantage Obama.  I can't see anything Hillary can do that will stop this.  

Feb 9: Louisiana - everyone says this will be Obama in a walk because the state is 1/3 African American.  But the Louisiana state party is the most conservative in the country.  On the other hand, the local Dems, like many other states, may be more apt to endorse Obama I think due to down-ticket fears.  I'd say the advantage here is narrowly Obama, but this Clinton's best bet for stopping the Obama train.  

Feb 9: Nebraska - A caucus in the midwest. Obama cleaned up in Kansas and North Dakota, and I expect he will also in this state.

Feb 9: Washington - A big prize.  The mayor of Seattle has recently endorsed Obama IIRC, and a recent SurveyUSA poll showed Obama 13 points ahead.  This is also a caucus state.  This will be a big win for Obama.  

Feb 9: US Virgin Islands - Only three delegates for this primary.  In small, overseas territories typically the machine handles the turnout, but with the USVI being majority black, I think Obama should win this.  

Feb 10: Maine - Demographically, this state would be good for Clinton, as it's in the Northeast, is almost totally white, and doesn't have the "wine track" element that Connecticut does.  However, it is a caucus, which gives Obama a big advantage.  Maine is also big on bipartisanship, and has some cultural similarities to the Western states Obama is doing well in.  He seems poised for a win here unless the local machine backs Clinton and beats activist turnout.

Feb 12: DC - Obama in a walk.

Feb 12: Maryland - Clinton has more institutional support, but Obama has the endorsement of the mayor of Baltimore, which should really help turnout.  IIRC, polls showed him in the lead even before super Tuesday.

Feb 12: Virginia - Unlike many states, Obama has the institutional advantage here.  I'd say he will win, but by less of a margin than DC or Maryland.  Clinton has a shot of taking this if she can turn out white, moderate-to-conservative working-class voters.

Feb 19: Hawaii - While Clinton cleaned up in California among Asian voters, given Hawaii is a home state to Obama (sort of), and a caucus, I'd  say he has a clear advantage.

Feb 19: Wisconsin - Clinton has a chance to hold off Obama's momentum here, but I still say it leans Obama.  As a primary, it won't be a blowout like Minnesota, but between turnout in Madison and Milwaukee, some spillover from the neighbor effect with Illinois, and Obama performing well in rural areas, I'd give him a narrow edge.  

Summarizing February:

Likely Obama: NE, WA, USVI, DC, MD, HI
Lean Obama: LA, ME, VA, WI

March is a chance for Clinton to make a big comeback.  The question is, if Obama carries the table, will she be competitive by next month?

Mar 4: Ohio - At first, I thought the state would be a likely Clinton blowout.  Now I'm not so sure - I think it will be a tossup like Missouri as things stand now.  Both states are around 86%-87% white and 12% black.  Neither state has a substantial Latino population.  Both states have similar per-capita income.  Both states have nearly identical population spreads.  Finally, both states are primaries.  It's gonna be close, very close!  Given the Obama momentum, I'd say Ohio looks bad for Hillary, She must win something before Ohio to keep this a toss-up.  

Mar 4: Rhode Island - This is a fairly working-class northeastern state.  Hillary should win by a similar or wider margin than Massachusetts.

Mar 4: Texas - Advantage Hillary here I think, though recent polls put Obama only 10 points behind.  One thing I've read is 1/4th of the delegates are selected via a caucus.  Because of this, I think Hillary will win by a more narrow margin than would be expected, but I don't see, without major momentum, Obama winning this

Mar 4: Vermont - Clear advantage Obama.  Around the country, Dean voters have been the most likely to support Obama, and that should continue here.  Also, it's more upscale and rural than much of New England, with less of the dying mill towns that Hillary is raking in the big points on.  Finally, the areas of Massachusetts and New Hampshire that Obama did the best in are the parts most like Vermont (Western Mass and the Keene region respectively).  

Mar 8: Wyoming - Western state, and the last caucus - Clear Obama win

Mar 11: Mississippi - African-Americans actually make up far more of the population than neighboring Alabama (37% versus 26%).  Obama will win this in a walk.

Summarizing March

Likely Obama: VT, WY, MS
Toss Up: OH
Lean Clinton: TX
Likely Clinton: RI

Rest of the Race:

April 22: Pennsylvania - My current home state.  Given the demographics (one of the oldest states in the country), and the support of the machine, I'd say this is a Clinton win.  Obama will not go over well in most of the Pittsburgh area, leaving hin with Philly and the Philly burbs to try to eke out a decent margin.

May 3: Guam - I don't have a clue, but judging by American Samoa, I think this leans Clinton.

May 6: Indiana - I'd say Obama has a narrow edge here, given he does well overall in the Midwest, he's from a neighboring state, and there is no state Democratic machine.  

May 6: North Carolina - Large African-American population and growing professional class speak good things for Obama.  I'd say watch Obama's win in Virginia, as it's an indicator of his absolute floor in NC.  The one thing which may work against him here is the Dixiecrat side of the party never truly died off on the State level, though I'm not sure these conservative Dems have a dog in the race either way.  

May 13: West Virginia - As a culturally somewhat Southern state lacking a substantial African American base, as well as an old state, I expect Clinton to do well here.  

May 20: Kentucky - Should be very similar to West Virginia, or neighboring Tennessee.  A Clinton win.

May 20: Oregon - Given Obama is polling well in Washington, I am guessing he will also have an appeal in Oregon.  

June 1: Puerto Rico - Unless Obama sews up the nomination, or engages in major outreach, he will probably lose this, though a word of caution is Puerto Ricans may not vote similarly to other Latinos, as a substantial amount are of African descent, and they have enjoyed historically better relationships than Mexicans with the African-American community.  

June 3: Montana - Western state, should be a clear Obama win if the nomination is still in contention this late in the game.

June 3: South Dakota
- Another western state which should be a clear Obama win.

Summary for rest of the race:

Likely Obama: NC, MT, SD
Lean Obama: IN, OR
Lean Clinton: PA
Likely Clinton: Guam, WV, KY, PR

Conclusions: There are now two possible outcomes I see, and it all comes down to Ohio.  If Clinton wins Ohio, she can win the nomination, provided she maintains a superdelegate edge and manages to get Michigan and Florida seated.  If Obama wins Ohio by any margin, or only loses by a few percent,  I don't see any way Clinton can win the nomination with any legitimacy.  

Thoughts?  

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Primaries (all tags)

Comments

18 Comments

Pennsylvania a toss up?

He'll win PA like he won Massachusetts.  I predict he wins virtually nothing outside the core cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh won't be by all that much.  PA is where I grew up, too, and I don't think it is too much of a stretch to call it a northern, Catholic version of Tennessee.

He has a better chance in Ohio, but we'll see. Other than his home state and a very narrow win in Missouri, he hasn't won a single large primary state.

I love your scoring system.  If there is any doubt, give the state to Obama.

by lombard 2008-02-06 06:41AM | 0 recs
I don't argue against that

The rest of the analysis is what I find very biased.

by lombard 2008-02-06 06:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Pennsylvania a toss up?

I actually edited PA back to lean Clinton.  That was an error of mine in the original post.  It will take a lot of momentum to win PA, as Hillary has the turnout machine and good demographics on her side.  

I actually think I'm posting a very favorable set of projections to Clinton, considering I'm not taking into account any momentum Obama may have won in February.  I really think the whole campaign hinges on Ohio, and I can't see any way she wins if she loses it.

If there's any particular states you disagree with, I'd love to hear some data.  I tried to base everything strictly off of similar voting patterns to those states which have already voted.  

One thing I couldn't find easily is which states are open versus closed primaries, which may make a difference in direct comparisons.  

by telephasic 2008-02-06 06:50AM | 0 recs
I wouldn't call it favorable

because you resolve all doubts in favor of Obama.

True, he's won almost all caucus states but Clinton decided to cede those and many of those states are hopelessly Red anyway.  I think she will compete more over the next month for individual states because there are fewer of them.

I would agree that he would be favored in MD and LA but I think you will see a strong opposition in those states to his candidacy as well so the delegate counts may be a lot closer than you think.  A similar situation may exist in VA.

by lombard 2008-02-06 07:02AM | 0 recs
Re: I wouldn't call it favorable

I have to base the upcoming races on the prior races (what other marker is there?).  Obviously margins matter a lot more in the delegate battle, but even if Obama wins half those states by 51%, the media narrative going into March will be "Clinton needs a win."  

In terms of delegates, she can lose all these states to Obama, provided she wins Ohio and Texas, and then PA in April.  But it smells too much like a less extreme version of the Guliani strategy, which didn't work for him.  

I will say that I could easily see Indiana swinging towards Clinton though depending upon who is seen as having the momentum at that point.  It possibly should be reclassified as a toss-up.  But by that point the nomination should be really settled, and if it isn't, Obama is more likely to have the money to compete than Clinton.  

by telephasic 2008-02-06 07:23AM | 0 recs
Re: I wouldn't call it favorable

Wisconsin has same-day registration and allows independents to vote, which seems to tip the favor to Obama IMHO.  

by telephasic 2008-02-06 07:59AM | 0 recs
I grew up there and I agree

The northern Catholic Tennessee

by lombard 2008-02-06 06:49AM | 0 recs
Yes, I'm one of those, too

Even our highly educated (and more of our youth, too) are hard heads.  Much harder to find romantic utopians there than where I live now.  And, as James Carville once described the state, "Philadelphia in the east.  Pittsburgh in the west.  And Alabama in between."

by lombard 2008-02-06 07:07AM | 0 recs
On the down low...

Now that Edwards is out of the race, the Steelworkers are considering endorsing Obama, which could make a big difference in PA (and OH and IN)

by telephasic 2008-02-06 06:51AM | 0 recs
Excellent work here

Based on where we sit today I can't fault anything you write.  But I think we have to take into account outside factors.

1. Money.  Obama has it.  Will Clinton?  Sustaining a 4 week operation in  PA would cost a ton.

2. Debates.  Clinton is going to keep the pressure on Obama.  Will one of them make a gaffe?  

3. Scandel.   What lurks.  When does the Rezko trial start?

4. Media.  How will the media play up or down the wins that Obama should rack up in the coming few weeks.  Will the media bury Clinton ahead of some of these larger, later contests you mention?

by dpANDREWS 2008-02-06 06:56AM | 0 recs
On Rezko

I think trial starts Feb 25th.  

by highgrade 2008-02-06 07:49AM | 0 recs
Maybe it will be delayed

Wanna bet a lot of folks are pushing behind the scenes for that?

At anyrate if it starts as scheduled you have week of press headaches for Obama if nothing new comes out.  If something about Obama comes out it would be worse.

Is Obama lawyered up here?  He is the unnamed political candidate.  I wonder if he will have to testify.

by dpANDREWS 2008-02-06 08:15AM | 0 recs
Thats good for Clinton

If Obama refuses to debate she can use that on the stump, in mailers.   Paint Obama as unwillingly to address the voters on issues, blah blah blah.   You know the drill.

by dpANDREWS 2008-02-06 08:13AM | 0 recs
PA I have heard

Is the oldest state in the Union, by average age.

by dpANDREWS 2008-02-06 06:57AM | 0 recs
I know my retired parents in PA won't vote for him

by lombard 2008-02-06 07:10AM | 0 recs
Re: How the rest of the campaign will play out...

Remember, all these primaries and caucuses are proportional. This Battle Royal will go on for a awhile. You wont see 2-5 numbers in the small states that Obama got. Anything can happen. Dont forget MI & FL in this equation. stay tuned.

by Safe at Home 2008-02-06 07:24AM | 0 recs
Re: How the rest of the campaign will play out...

What if neither one has enough delegates at convention time. Suppose Obama has more delegates but Hillary got more votes? What do the remaining super delegates do? Interresting?

by Safe at Home 2008-02-06 08:03AM | 0 recs
Re: How the rest of the campaign will play out...

Don't count the Clintons out- she's not just going to be sitting around twiddling her thumbs while he racks up states and delegates.

by reasonwarrior 2008-02-06 10:35AM | 0 recs

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