• on a comment on Michigan over? over 5 years ago


  • comment on a post So many polls over 5 years ago

    Please, please use the margins of errors reported from the polls - they actually provide useful information and should reduce statistical noise. To be precise, the optimal combination if the errors are not correlated should be:

    poll_average = (MOE_1^2*poll_1 + MOE_2^2*poll_2 + ... + MOE_n^2*poll_n) / (MOE_1^2 + MOE_2^2 + ...  + MOE_n^2)

    The mydd electoral map is way too statistically noisy, with routine swings of 50 electoral votes in a couple days because you aren't weighting down statistical outliers. Having that on your front page provokes unjustified panic or optimism among the uninformed, which doesn't help the discussion.

  • comment on a post Clark gets rebuked by Obama, MoveOn.org too over 6 years ago
    Obama is trying to show that there's blame on all sides when it comes to using patriotism as a bludgeon, and it's an effective way to make his point without sounding partisan. For that matter, he's correct. Accusing a general trying to serve his country best of treason was a stupid idea, and all it did was play into the hands of the Republicans at a time when we should have been having a serious debate about changing strategy in Iraq.
    Not everything is about scoring political points or triangulating, Jerome. Can we perhaps take on faith for a second that he's actually trying to make a point about elevating our discourse?
  • Don't forget Zimbabwe, Jim Crow, the denial of voting rights to women, and Russia. Because it's exactly like all of those things.

    I can't remember where I heard it, but someone recently compared this to a physical mugging. But I think it's easy to lose perspective when you're passionate about something.

  • I think that's what's usually done...

  • comment on a post Open Thread over 6 years ago

    Hillary's words have only one of two implications:

    1. She's pathologically ambitious, and secretly wishes the unthinkable at some small level because that's natural and human (what bench warmer hasn't hoped for the starter to twist his ankle... even if it would make the team worse off?).

    2. She's made an innocent - but pretty terrible - gaffe. And this is the candidate who's supposed to be battle-tested and vetted.

    I think either of those are charitable views of what's happened. We'll see if this story continues to have legs outside the echo chamber.

  • comment on a post Kentucky (& NC) for Clinton over 6 years ago

    51 - 43 > 9?

    You're not helping the "Clinton people don't understand math" argument.

  • As an example, consider any parliamentary system's "unity government" - i.e. Germany right now. Train wreck in slow motion.

  • Every White House policy making apparatus has to have its zenith at the desk of the president. Hillary Clinton may be good politically, but it would be suicidal from a policy-making standpoint. We don't need 3 people trying to govern the country at once, regardless of how good the ideas from any of them are.

    Every time you espouse the "Clinton as VP" meme, have you considered the practical implication of how the power sharing would work?

  • on a comment on Obama Supporters over 6 years ago

    Be very, very careful about what you're saying. I would hope that you would give black Americans the credit of intelligence and presence of mind to discern who is and who is not a racist. Saying that Obama tricked black Americans into voting for him based on lies speaks more to your prejudices about race and intelligence than anything else.

  • comment on a post Obama Also Runs Even with Kerry Among White Voters over 6 years ago

    I have to admit I find this entire argument sickening. I would rather lose the general election than deny a viable candidate the nomination based on his race. While there are important fights to fight - Iraq, health care, etc., do you really want to lose who you are in pursuit of those things?

    This is all to say - when you question Obama's "electability" because of the supposed racism of white America, I think it's more of a statement about you than the candidate.

  • No, she needs to win big because she's 160 pledged delegates behind - margin matters because she needs to close that gap, and close it ASAP.

    Objective measures of reality - like numbers - do matter, even if pop psychology and the media play a part in shaping our perceptions as well.  Don't create a faith-based campaign to match the current faith-based administration...

  • For everyone trying to say it doesn't matter if it's a narrow victory, remember that delegates are the final say of who's going to get the nomination. Margins matter because we don't run a first past the post system in the Democratic primary. Over 10 point margins are vital for Clinton because they start to tip 3-3 Congressional Districts into 4-2s, etc.

    So while we can argue about the psychological boost or whatever of a 5 point win, at the end of the day numbers are an objective reality, and if you're behind by 140 in the fourth quarter you gotta start making big dents in your opponent's lead to say you're catching up.

  • comment on a post Getting MI out of the way over 6 years ago

    If anyone needs to be booted from the convention, it's the superdelegates of MI and FL. They're the ones who screwed this up for their constituents, for us, and for the candidates by defying the rules.

  • Oops, I meant Ohio, Texas, California, not Florida.


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