`Red' Arizona Supports Gay Marriage? Say What?

Checking election 2006 results, one cannot help but do a jaw-dropper on the results of Arizona's anti-gay Proposition 107, the Protect Marriage Arizona amendment, which failed at the ballot box 49% to 51%. (Some votes are still being counted, no change in the outcome is expected.) Once reliably-red Arizona, ground zero in the illegal immigrant-bashing business, supports gay marriage? The very first state in the union to reject an anti-gay marriage initiative? At the same time seven other states approved similar initiatives on the same day? So, Arizona stands alone against 27 other states on this issue? Say what?

Say what, indeed. This is a great story about smart and gutsy progressives, campaign strategy and tactics and sticking to your guns when the national Big Dogs were giving the `local yokels' the Big Crunch over money. Rahm-style arm-twisting. Follow me on the jump and I hope you'll leave with a big smile on your face.

There's more...

AZ-01: In the Red Zone, it's first and goal to go for Simon, with Update

I live in Arizona's Congressional District 1, a sprawling district covering close to half of this state. The registration figures show a split district, with Dems holding a seven-point edge overall. Yet, no Dem has won this district since 1992, when Karan English pulled off a huge upset over Doug Wead (R-Theocrat). I was Karan's pollster and one of her strategy team. I know what it takes to win here.

Today, however, Democrat Ellen Simon is poised to take this district from Rick Renzi (R-Corruption). She is positioned to win, in my view, because she's an excellent candidate and also because of Howard Dean's 50-State Strategy, which BiPM diaried about today. This, my friends, is one of the places where it all comes together for that final Red Zone drive  to score the game-winning touchdown. Follow me on the flip and I'll tell you how she scores the TD.

There's more...

A Nightmare on Joementum Street: Ned Lamont has Fire In The Eyes

Cross-posted at MyDD.com and DailyKos.com

Last Thursday night I had the opportunity to meet Ned Lamont and talk with him face-to-face and in-depth about his race to unseat Joementum Lieberman. We got down to it, to put it bluntly, no holds barred, and I'm telling you right here and right now Ned  should win this race. He deserves our attention and as much support as the netroots can muster. This guy gets it, folks. He can take Joementum out, ridding us of a major embarrassment in the Democratic Party and an unapologetic shill for right-wing extremism. I'll tell you how and why I came to this conclusion below.

There's more...

MyDD Poll: The Structure of the Voter Universe, Part 2

From the diaries--Chris

This is a long post and a very, very important one. Last time I introduced the psychographics borne out of this poll, a mini-history of the method, and a tree-tops view of the themes and groups in action. This time, we're going to dive deeply into them and go through the demographics and detail relative to specific questions. Next time, I'm going to provide my view of what political communications strategy would look like when based on our findings. Then, the final primary post of this analysis will be my strategic recommendations, including action items. After that, I'll be cleaning up some loose ends, including an experiment designed to test the impact of the OBL tape and probably some detailed pretest/posttest Bush approval analysis.

My goal with this post is for us to more fully understand the groups, on a personal level, so they become familiar to us. I hope you'll be able to recognize real people, friends, neighbors, others, in them, even though we couldn't flesh the groups out more thoroughly this time because of budget and interview time limitations. But, it was the first time out on the MyDD Poll and repeated research will solve that problem nicely, thank you very much. Join me on the flip...

There's more...

MyDD Poll: Voter Universe, Part 2 Crosstab Tables

Below are the crosstab tables for your review. Hope you've enjoyed the post and found it useful. Hasta.

<u>Demographics</u&gt

                                                                                       Heart-   Heart-
                                             Blue    Urban   Pro-            land      land     Trusting      Red
                                  US     Core     Blue     gressives     Blue     Red     Boomers     Core

Democrat                  33%    58%     65%      50%           21%      17%     34%           10%
Republican               29          6          8         16                 8          20        38              62    
Indep/Other              38        36        27         34               71         63         28              28

Male                         47        47        36         47               55          32         30             57
Female                     53        53        64         53               45          68         70             43

Northeast                 22        21        22         22               27          16          26             21
South                       30        22        26         35               24          30          32             36
Midwest                  26        24        23         23               34          37          18              26
Rockies                     7        10          7           8                 5            4            3               7
West Coast              15        22        22         12               10          13          20             10

Urban                      27        30        31         37                29          20          16             24
Suburban                 35        34        33         38               33          31           40            37
Rural                       36        32        33         23                37          48          44             38

35 yrs. or less          14          9        11         22                12          26            6             15
36 to 45 yrs.            15         16       14           9                16          14           14            17
46 to 55 yrs.            23         24       27         24                23          19           28            21
56 to 65 yrs.            21         25       26         13                15          14           20            21
65+ yrs.                   27         26       22         32                34          27           31            26

Anglo                      80         71        76         60                85          74           86           90
Minority                  20         29        24         40               15           26           14           10

Fund/Evan.              23          5         14         10                17          26           33           37
Mainstream              39        30        31         34                49          24           46           47
Liberal                     38         65        55         56                34          50           21           16

Less than $25K        26        25         28         49                20         32            25           17
$25K to $49.9K       27        28         23         27                32         33            21           28
$50K to $74.9K       22        24         23         12                16         18            31           26
$75K +                    25         23         26         12                32         17            23           29

<u>Terrorism Threat Index and Themes</u&gt

Terrorism Threat Index:

                                                         High               Medium            Low

US                                                     27%                 39%                 34%

Blue Core                                            5                     59                    37
Urban Blue                                        78                     21                      1
Progressives                                      36                     53                     11
Heartland Blue                                  30                     57                     13
Heartland Red                                   30                     58                     12
Trusting Boomers                             51                     47                       2
Red Core                                             1                     25                     74

Fear theme:
                                                         Fearful            Neutral               Not fearful

US                                                    40%                 19%                    41%

Blue Core                                           9                    12                       79
Urban Blue                                       82                    14                         4
Progressives                                     53                    33                       14
Heartland Blue                                 29                    28                       43
Heartland Red                                  61                    22                       17
Trusting Boomers                            92                      8                         0
Red Core                                          15                    18                       67

Bush Meme:
                                                         Positive            Neutral               Negative

US                                                    43%                 16%                    41%

Blue Core                                           1                      5                       94
Urban Blue                                       13                    22                       65
Progressives                                       5                    15                       80
Heartland Blue                                 41                    29                       30
Heartland Red                                  83                      7                       10
Trusting Boomers                            95                      3                         2
Red Core                                          70                    16                       14

Religious Tolerance theme:

                                                        Tolerant            Neutral               Intolerant

US                                                    27%                 42%                    31%

Blue Core                                         41                     44                      15
Urban Blue                                       39                     32                      29
Progressives                                     40                     39                      21
Heartland Blue                                 22                     52                      26
Heartland Red                                  33                     41                      26
Trusting Boomers                            17                     34                      49
Red Core                                          13                     47                      40

Bubba theme:

                                                        Positive            Neutral               Negative

US                                                    38%                 20%                    42%

Blue Core                                         18                     12                      70
Urban Blue                                         5                       9                      86
Progressives                                     66                     19                      15
Heartland Blue                                 12                     12                      76
Heartland Red                                  76                     14                      10
Trusting Boomers                            15                      53                      32
Red Core                                          57                      29                      14

Trust in External Solutions theme:

                                                        Trust                 Neutral               Distrust

US                                                    37%                  17%                    46%

Blue Core                                         36                     16                       47
Urban Blue                                       43                     16                       41
Progressives                                     12                     11                       77
Heartland Blue                                   8                     10                       82
Heartland Red                                  10                     19                       71
Trusting Boomers                            69                       9                       22
Red Core                                          54                     23                       23

<u>Survey Questions:</u&gt

Direction US is headed:

                                                         Right Direction       Wrong Track       Not Sure

US                                                     37%                          48%                    15%

Blue Core                                          13                             71                        16
Urban Blue                                          6                             86                          8
Progressives                                      11                             70                         19
Heartland Blue                                  10                             68                         22
Heartland Red                                   51                             32                         17
Trusting Boomers                             45                             31                          24
Red Core                                           75                             13                         12

Pretest Bush job approval:

                                                         Approve                  Disapprove          Not Sure

US                                                     43%                          50%                      7%

Blue Core                                            6                             87                          7
Urban Blue                                          1                             94                          5
Progressives                                        9                             83                          8
Heartland Blue                                    9                             81                         10
Heartland Red                                   77                             16                           7
Trusting Boomers                             66                             23                          11
Red Core                                           89                               6                            5

Availability of good jobs at decent wages:

                                      Widely        Available,        Available,        Not              Not
                                       Available     not easy           rare                 Available     Sure

US                                   18%             37%                25%                  9%             11%

Blue Core                        13                37                   30                    13                  7
Urban Blue                        7                36                   32                    18                  6
Progressives                      3                40                   31                    10                16
Heartland Blue                  9                34                   33                    11                14
Heartland Red                   2                27                   37                    13                 21
Trusting Boomers           25                41                   19                      5                 11
Red Core                         35                40                   13                      3                   9

Rating of feds protecting the US since 9/11:
                                                                                                                Very
                                           Excellent       Good        Fair         Poor        Poor

US                                      13%               38%         31%         12%          6%

Blue Core                             3                   25            41            20            11
Urban Blue                           1                   15            40            25            18
Progressives                         2                    27           55            15              1
Heartland Blue                     3                    31           48            13              5
Heartland Red                    11                    59           23              6              1
Trusting Boomers              12                    52           30              5              1
Red Core                            32                    54           11              2              1

Personal safety/security since 9/11:

                                         A lot safer       Safer       Neutral     Less safe    A lot less safe

US                                     24%                 18%        34%         12%           13%

Blue Core                          20                     21           39               8             12
Urban Blue                         5                        6           41             21             27
Progressives                       7                      10           50             20             13
Heartland Blue                  16                     14           47             15               8
Heartland Red                     7                     28           38             16              11
Trusting Boomers              11                    15            47               9             17
Red Core                            49                    27           15                5               4

Worry the US will be attacked in the next year:

                                    Not worried      Not                                                   Extremely
                                     at all                 worried       Neutral       Worried      worried

US                                18%                  18%            30%             18%           16%

Blue Core                     39                      26               28                   3                4
Urban Blue                     5                        3               23                 32              37
Progressives                   3                       10              39                 26              21
Heartland Blue             15                       22              44                 12                7
Heartland Red                6                       19              28                 25              22
Trusting Boomers          0                         3              20                 33              44                
Red Core                      30                       27              30                   9                5

Worry that Osama bin Laden hasn't been captured:

                                    Not worried      Not                                                   Extremely
                                     at all                 worried       Neutral       Worried      worried

US                                23%                  15%            26%             14%           22%

Blue Core                     46                      20               23                   5                6
Urban Blue                     6                        6               15                 17              56
Progressives                   4                       13              30                 22              32
Heartland Blue             15                       18              37                 16              13
Heartland Red                1                         7              34                 29              29
Trusting Boomers          2                         1              31                 19              47                
Red Core                      43                       22              24                   6                5

Has (household) followed DHS recommendations for attack preparation:

                                                     Yes,                   No,                      Not
                                                      followed           have not               sure

US                                                 34%                  61%                      5%

Blue Core                                      36                     55                          9
Urban Blue                                    48                     49                          3
Progressives                                  17                     77                          6
Heartland Blue                                8                     90                          2
Heartland Red                                 7                     84                          9
Trusting Boomers                         64                     29                          8
Red Core                                       42                     55                          3

Confidence in feds' timely, effective response in a disaster:

                                     Highly                                                  Not              Not confident
                                      confident     Confident       Neutral      confident     at all

US                                 13%             13%                30%           16%            28%

Blue Core                        6                  7                    29              18               41
Urban Blue                      2                  1                   12               17               64
Progressives                  11                14                   35               19               21
Heartland Blue                3                  2                   36               25               35
Heartland Red               10                  8                   46               21               14
Trusting Boomers           8                  8                   42               17               25
Red Core                       26                27                   30               10                 7

Support for March, 2003 invasion of Iraq:

                                            Strongly                                             Strongly        Not
                                             Support        Support      Oppose       Oppose         Sure

US                                        18%             28%            22%            26%              6%

Blue Core                               0                  5                40               50                 5
Urban Blue                             2                  6                26               63                 3
Progressives                           1                  9                53               32                 5
Heartland Blue                       3                18                33               36               10
Heartland Red                      22                57                12                 0                 9
Trusting Boomers                31                43                12                 5                 9
Red Core                              42                48                  4                 1                 5

Support for keeping 100K troops in Iraq for at least a year:

                                            Strongly                                             Strongly        Not
                                             Support        Support      Oppose       Oppose         Sure

US                                        14%             36%            23%            21%              6%

Blue Core                               3                17                33               41                 6
Urban Blue                             2                18                27               49                 4
Progressives                           2                15                48               34                 1
Heartland Blue                       6                26                38               20               10
Heartland Red                      13                55                16                 6               10
Trusting Boomers                11                73                  8                 6                 2
Red Core                              34                49                  8                 3                 6

Support for Murtha's Iraq troop deployment plan:

                                            Strongly                                             Strongly        Not
                                             Support        Support      Oppose       Oppose         sure

US                                        10%             47%            20%            14%              9%

Blue Core                               2                34                30               23                11
Urban Blue                             6                37                25               25                  7
Progressives                           2                36                32               20                10
Heartland Blue                       7                67                  9                 6                11
Heartland Red                      13                66                14                 2                  4
Trusting Boomers                22                61                  5         &

There's more...

MyDD Poll: The Structure of the Voter Universe, Part 1

From the diaries--Chris

Well, this is a bit of a celebratory day, as the psychographic (extended) analysis of the MyDD Poll begins and I also received Crashing The Gate this morning. What timing! Jerome and Markos featured some of our discussion  about psychographic research in The Gravy Train chapter. So the book hits and here at MyDD we're `right in tune' with them, driving the ball down the field a la the West Coast Offense, and already applying some of the knowledge, information and recommendations they've generated in the book. Love it. Karma is on our side, it would seem.

Let's get started. This part of the analysis is the most important, folks. At least in my view. It's the most comprehensive, deep, multi-layered and consistently revealing method of analyzing data because it respects the complexity of humans, highlights it even, and rigorously goes through a dataset looking for embedded patterns of response that are not evident through simple demographic crosstabulation. It's a CAT-scan of the data, basically.

There's more...

MyDD Poll: Investigation, Impeachment and Extremism

This is a long post, but I truly hope you'll stay with it to the end. In my view, there's plenty of gems in here and we're getting ready to `go at throttle up' on the Analytical Rocket. This post helps you strap into the rocket, I hope.

First, for fun: an observation and conclusion. You know it's going to be a wild political year when all the politicos want briefings `on what's happening out there'. Now, yesterday. Eight months out. Uh-huh. Are we a bit on edge these days, folks? A bit concern-ed? A bit unsure-ed? Natch on that and there you go on my recent and upcoming sched. Briefings, briefings, briefings, at the end of which comes the world-renowned "Hmm. Really? Hmm." That's the take on the current state of blue campaign strategery in this neck of the woods: noodlin', ponderin', chin-rubbin'. Lots of "hmm."

I am sure you get the picture. It's TBD which frame is more apropos for the year, though: a refrain from Country Joe McDonald's Fixin' to Die Rag ("open up the Pearly Gates, there ain't no time to wonder why, whoopee, we're all gonna die!") or from Public Image Ltd.'s Warrior ("I take no quarter. This is my land. I'll never surrender. I am. A Warrior.").

Strategically, from what I've seen, I'd say the Talking Heads' Once in a Lifetime has the point locally and nationally so far in 2006: "same as it ever was" for political communications, folks. Politicos are simply more fidgety this time. Nervous tics, that sort of thing. The poor dumb bastards. I'll definitely return to this issue when we get to the recommendations section of the research, given what we know now and also what I think we'll find in the extended analysis (which I plan to conduct and then present next).  And those recommendations are most likely include relentlessly slapping `em all silly. Just so you know. Tough love, you see. Especially since the national blues have that killer-diller Silver Bullet thematic going against the reds: "We can do better." (Sigh.) Jeebus. Jiminy Freaking Christmas, that'll catch fire with voters, don't ya think? Riiiiight.

There's more...

MyDD Poll: Our Approach on Impeachment, Removal

Next on the analysis agenda, we'll see what the Terrorism Threat Index tells us about responses to impeachment questions and right-wing extremism. Before I do that, though, let me today provide my view of the impeachment questions we asked, primarily because it's such a hot topic right now and there's legitimate discussion about how/what to measure concerning it.

Mystery Pollster has started an excellent discussion on the subject and I think many people will be very interested to check out his comments in Part I (link above) and also when he posts Part II. Me included. His primary points as I see them involve the lack of knowledge of Americans about the process of impeachment and the question as to how best to measure their attitudes now on the subject, a hypothetical outcome in the future. Both excellent issues to discuss in order to generate solid information on the issue.

Which is exactly what we did in the design phase of our poll. And I firmly believe the MyDD Poll has set the standard on impeachment because our questions specifically take into account the impeachment process and ask relevant questions Americans can reasonably respond to now. And in the future.

There's more...

MyDD Poll: Back in the Saddle Again

In a very relevant development, it turns out that 99.8% of those under surveillence are not actually suspects, entirely destroying the "probable cause" argument behind the program.

Also, Glenn Greenwald is live-blogging the hearings--Chris

After taking care of some major reports and briefings last week, it's nice to be back in the saddle on the MyDD Poll. Nicer still that I don't have a Coupla Tons O' Stress weighing on me at the same time. My compliments to Chris for doing an excellent job giving you all an overview of the basic data. His compendium, with links to his previous posts, can be found here.

My contribution involves deep analysis of the data and the strategic implications of the findings. My first post on this, found here discussed very, very important stark data patterns in some of the early questions. Demographic groups including Republicans, voters in the South, fundamentalist/evangelicals, affluent voters and men show the same response patterns across several questions, `buying into' the overall extremist meme hook, line and sinker. Thus, they say the country is headed in the right direction, Bush job approval is high among them and good jobs with decent wages are locally available.

Key progressive voter groups consistently link together on questions, too, including Democrats, voters in the Northeast and West Coast, those less affluent, women, minority voters and those religiously liberal. Their take on virtually all issues tested is almost polar opposite of the extremists.

These patterns crop up across virtually all questions in the poll, which leads to the conclusion we've got a country divided along fault lines the size of the Grand Canyon on a plethora of issues. This is not a new finding, but it's importance really increases when we recognize we have it quantified in our data. That means we can explore it, test it, learn about it, at a much deeper level than others who simply report it's existence. And that's precisely what we'll do over the course of the next week or two: dive deep in order to learn the outlines of a winning political campaign strategy. Let's hop to it after the jump...

There's more...

The Terrorism Threat Index-Proof of Concept

The Homeland Security Advisory System, those famous color-coded threat bars, were developed by the government after 9/11 to tell us how worried, concerned, fearful, etc. we should be regarding the threat of a terrorist attack.

It's a one-way system. There's no systematic nor comprehensive feedback on the issue from the public. Further, it's going on five years now since 9/11 and no ongoing public poll, to my knowledge, has provided an easy-to-understand summary of how Americans perceive the threat of terrorist attack. Sure, these polls ask questions on occasion, but there's no integrated system, or index measure, that's been developed and tracked regularly over time.

Major polls have just such indexes for consumerism/economic behavior. Good ones, too. Witness the plethora  available at the Polling Report website. Funny how consumerism trumps terrorism as an issue deemed worthy of significant polling resources and measurement efforts, eh? Shocking, I say.

In our view, it's time voters are able to tell elected officials, business and community leaders how worried, concerned, fearful, etc. they should be regarding public perceptions of a terrorist attack. Let's complete the feedback loop. The MyDD Poll, again breaking new ground, designed just such a assessment into this poll: the Terrorism Threat Index. It's a basic assessment in this poll due to funding limitations and time constraints with a relatively short interview. We couldn't ask a whole series of questions about it. However, this post shows how the concept works, providing clear summary information through only five questions. The Index easily can and should be expanded with more measures and developed into a robust summary of  voter perceptions of threat of the terrorist attack. Here's how it works...

There's more...

Diaries

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