As a practitioner of the hard sciences, I like theories that are falsifiable (testable.) Unfortunately in politics very few theories are actually testable, which is the point I was trying to make. For example, "Can Obama win without Hillary on the ticket?" is not, at this moment, testable. It will be tested in November, but regardless of the outcome, it will be hard to uncover any real facts in the MSM about why Obama won or lost. (Maybe they'll get that "Freakonomics" fellow to turn his statistical pen on it -- that would be great.)
And "Obama would have won with Hillary as VP" is now not testable at all.
I have an aversion to people throwing around phrases like "patently not true" when what really should be said is "That can't be proven."
Sorry, I have to respectfully disagree. If McCain wins in November, it will be the fault of the Democratic Party as a whole (Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Pelosi, Reid, Dean, etc and so on) for completely mucking up the primary process in more ways than I can count.
It really is the Democrats' year to lose. If they can't make their case clearly to the American electorate, don't blame the voters for that. That's diving down the well of the "low information voter".
The dismissive attitude of much of the Democratic Party needs to stop yesterday. (Better yet, last month -- or last year.) Any Democrat who really cares about the election needs to start trying to bring Democratic and Independent voters back to the fold -- actively TRYING, not just sitting there going "They have to vote for us, who else have they got?"
If you want Obama in the White House and you sit on your hands and say, "Hey, I'm voting for him, I did my part, it's the rest of America's problem if they didn't do the right thing," -- well, sorry to tell you but the ship is going to go down with all hands aboard, and there are no life rafts on the USA. (Well, maybe Canada...) So don't just sit back and say "Hey, I paddled enough." Get out there and push the damn canoe up the river if you have to. Remember that if it goes over the falls, you go with it.
"Yet perhaps the biggest factor keeping the presidential race close has been Obama's inability to close the deal with some of Hillary Clinton's supporters. According to the poll, 52 percent of them say they will vote for Obama, but 21 percent are backing McCain, with an additional 27 percent who are undecided or want to vote for someone else."
I believe that the hope of about a quarter of Hillary's supporters (the ones saying they'll vote McCain) is that Obama will lose and Hillary will run again in 2012 for President. Never mind this talk of her becoming a substitute VP for Biden.
No, only half (roughly) of CLinton's supporters are saying they won't vote Obama. That's nine million. The other nine million are apparently okay with Obama.
I forget the exact breakdown, but it was something like 22% stay home (loses a vote) and 23% vote McCain (a switch, which counts as a loss of two votes). The remaining stray percentages were voting third party or some such.
I wish I could see how Joe Biden is going to bring votes to Obama, but I just can't. I have no beef with Biden but I don't think he improves Obama's chances at all. Probably doesn't hurt them, but there's still those 50% of Clinton voters out there who say they aren't voting Obama.
I'll guess we'll have to find out how serious those nine million people are the hard way....