Wisconsin? More like Obamonsin Obama up 13!
by Student Guy, Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 11:18:58 PM EDT
The poll has a sample size on the smallish size 506. Its internals look decent: 16/80 right track/wrong track numbers, 64/32 favorability for Obama (remember WI is an upper midwest state), 30/70 for W, 53/44 for McCain, 38/29/24 partisan breakdown for D/I/R.
Here are a few choice quotes from the piece:
The survey of 506 randomly selected probable voters was conducted by phone from June 8- June 10 under the direction of Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein from the University of Wisconsin Department of Political Science (www.polisci.wisc.edu). It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Consistent with evidence from other national surveys, the study paints a picture of a hostile political environment in the swing state of Wisconsin for Republicans in 2008. Eight in 10 Wisconsin voters think the country is going in the wrong direction, President George W. Bush has a favorability rating of only 30 percent, 66 percent believe that the war in Iraq was not worth fighting, and the top two issue concerns are the economy and getting U.S. soldiers out of Iraq.
Party polarization is a striking feature of Wisconsin opinion at this time with 87 percent of Democrats and 89 percent of Republicans saying they would vote for their party's nominee if the election were held today. "For all the talk about a new politics, the electorate is sharply split,'' said Franklin. Among independents, Obama holds a nine-point lead, 46 percent to 37 percent for McCain with 17 percent undecided.
It was a fun ride while it lasted Johnny Mac but it looks like WI has no place on your swing state map.
Hillary Clinton has no net effect as a VP pick here, 55% of the voters say it doesn't matter and the rest are split between increased support for Obama and decreased support, but we need to remember that WI was one of Clinton's worst states and Obama's best, a poll from OH might be more definitive on this topic.