Wisconsin? More like Obamonsin Obama up 13!

A hat tip to Kossack Our Past for the diary, give that person proper kudos here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/12/ 13953/7998/484/534460

The poll has a sample size on the smallish size 506.  Its internals look decent: 16/80 right track/wrong track numbers, 64/32 favorability for Obama (remember WI is an upper midwest state), 30/70 for W, 53/44 for McCain, 38/29/24 partisan breakdown for D/I/R.

Here are a few choice quotes from the piece:

The survey of 506 randomly selected probable voters was conducted by phone from June 8- June 10 under the direction of Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein from the University of Wisconsin Department of Political Science (www.polisci.wisc.edu). It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Consistent with evidence from other national surveys, the study paints a picture of a hostile political environment in the swing state of Wisconsin for Republicans in 2008. Eight in 10 Wisconsin voters think the country is going in the wrong direction, President George W. Bush has a favorability rating of only 30 percent, 66 percent believe that the war in Iraq was not worth fighting, and the top two issue concerns are the economy and getting U.S. soldiers out of Iraq.

Party polarization is a striking feature of Wisconsin opinion at this time with 87 percent of Democrats and 89 percent of Republicans saying they would vote for their party's nominee if the election were held today. "For all the talk about a new politics, the electorate is sharply split,'' said Franklin. Among independents, Obama holds a nine-point lead, 46 percent to 37 percent for McCain with 17 percent undecided.

It was a fun ride while it lasted Johnny Mac but it looks like WI has no place on your swing state map.

Hillary Clinton has no net effect as a VP pick here, 55% of the voters say it doesn't matter and the rest are split between increased support for Obama and decreased support, but we need to remember that WI was one of Clinton's worst states and Obama's best, a poll from OH might be more definitive on this topic.

Tags: GE polling, Wisconsin (all tags)

Comments

21 Comments

Go tip this jar instead

if you have an account on Dkos:
http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2008/6/ 12/13953/7998/1#c1

But let's hear it for a great state that will be very blue this November.

by Student Guy 2008-06-11 11:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Go tip this jar instead

It better, I recently changed my voting from Wisconsin to (presidentially) worthless California.

P.S. Its summer, it smells like beer and brats.

by AIegra 2008-06-11 11:56PM | 0 recs
Not until the rains stop.

by benmasel 2008-06-12 01:11AM | 0 recs
Hard Poll to Answer

OK...this was a hard poll to answer.  I went for Cheese and Cows but could have easily gone for Beer and Bratz.  

I am so glad that Favre finally retired!!

by Our Past 2008-06-11 11:32PM | 0 recs
You like the link to your tip jar

you did the work and mojo doesn't matter here.

by Student Guy 2008-06-11 11:33PM | 0 recs
re

Beware of overconfidence! Something I am seeing a lot of on Democratic sites. Dukaksis was 17! points ahead of Bush Sr in July 1988. Do not get cocky until the day after the election.

by rossinatl 2008-06-11 11:50PM | 0 recs
Re: re

The trick is to mentally subtract 20 from any poll and then campaign like it was true.

by AIegra 2008-06-11 11:58PM | 0 recs
Re: re

20!  That's just depressing.

Maybe 10.

by Jess81 2008-06-12 12:03AM | 0 recs
Re: re

I know there may be a Bradley effect but 20 is ridiculous.

by STUBALL 2008-06-12 12:07AM | 0 recs
Re: re

Well the other option is to never look at the polls and always fight uphill.

by AIegra 2008-06-12 12:12AM | 0 recs
It is good to be jubilant to keep the spirits up

but I am prepared to work this fall in MN like were are 30 points down.

by Student Guy 2008-06-12 12:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin? More like Obamonsin Obama up 13!

I thought you were tired and needed to go to bed. Obama will easily win Wisconsin and I doubt that McCain will even compete seriously there. Despite its supposed Republican/Centrist leaning Wisconson has 2 Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor. It also has a long and fabled history of progressive populism from LaFollette in the twenties up to the present time. There is very little racism or ethnic tension in Wisconson (although there was a little brouhaha when the Packers got their first black players 35-40 years ago. Their two senators are both Jewish, representing a state with 1/2 of 1% Jewish population. UW in Madison is more liberal than Berkely or Austin. Find me a poll with these numbers from North Carolina or Virginia

by STUBALL 2008-06-11 11:55PM | 0 recs
Insomnia kicked in

I'll be up until 5 I am guessing.

by Student Guy 2008-06-12 12:29AM | 0 recs
progressive history notwithstanding....

I agree with you that Obama should handily win Wisconsin, even though the state only went blue by 5,000 and 12,000 votes in 2000 and 2004.

However, I have to disagree that there is very little racism or ethnic tension in my state.  The recent State Supreme Court case in which the conservative challenger Michael Gableman used Willie Horton style ads to defeat the incumbent African-American from Milwaukee Louis Butler is a case in point.

In white bread western Wisconsin, the word Milwaukee is often used as a code for urban, poor, and black.

by emptythreatsfarm 2008-06-12 07:14AM | 0 recs
We'll win, but not by this much.

This is an accurate picture of right now, but the NRA has not yet gone to work here, while Obama made the rounds in Feb.

by benmasel 2008-06-12 01:08AM | 0 recs
Missing from your poll....

This week, the state smells like mildew. The Badger Poll was taken before la deluge.

by benmasel 2008-06-12 01:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Missing from your poll....

The Badger Poll consistently showed Bush with a 10-point lead in 2004. It was never accurate.

by elrod 2008-06-12 04:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin?

Keep in mind Gore won this state by 0.2% and Kerry won it by 0.4%.  Obama is much stronger here, McCain is wasting his time trying to pick off this state, or Minnesota for that matter.  Washington and Oregon are also off the table, and it looks like Iowa (a state Bush won last time) may be edging into solid Obama territory too.  It's starting to remind me of 2006, as the year went on more and more Democratic seats became safe and more and more Republicans seats became vulnerable.

by Skaje 2008-06-12 01:40AM | 0 recs
You don't list the actual poll results here
Which were 50-37, as listed in the Dkos diary.
by BishopRook 2008-06-12 04:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin? More like Obamonsin Obama up 13!

My friends, this is truly a wonderful poll.

by Bobby Obama 2008-06-12 04:43AM | 0 recs
I was never worried about Wisconsin

When I was in Eau Claire for the Obama rally, I talked to a number of Republicans who were for Obama.  They don't like Bush so much there.

by Dracomicron 2008-06-12 07:11AM | 0 recs

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