Updated: SUSA, KSTP and what is really going on in MN (Obama is still a Rock-Star)
by Student Guy, Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 11:17:48 AM EDT
Okay so SUSA (the 'gold' standard of polling) released some polls done in MN. I took a study break to take a gander at the cross tabs and I say that SUSA is ignorant about what is going on in MN. I found it funny that KSTP was the main sponsor of this poll as all MN people know that they have a republican bias and the polls show something weird going on.The results were For the Presidental Race: Obama 47-McCain 46.
For the Senate Race: Coleman 52-Franken 40.
The team at MNpublius agrees that these polls don't pass the smell test President and Senate
Here are the linkys:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=b9f93545-a19e-4e8d-909c-59b605 0c0d5e (President poll which makes no sense)
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollPrin t.aspx?g=c358090e-4679-4eeb-b99f-fd8654b c08be&d=0
(Senate poll which the cross tabs look down right ugly)
So I have to do my best to swat down this piece of crap. First off looking at the cross tabs for the Presidental Poll:
The age distribution of the vote is completely out of wack, I have some sort of a handle on the youth vote (18-34) and I can promise you that there is now way it is tied. Obama will win the colleges 80-20 at a minimum. Young people in MN are like young people in other states and we are going for Obama. Also 65+ being only 16% of the vote, I don't think so SUSA, that result is pure crap.
Second the ideology breakdown isn't what I've seen for results by pollsters who know MN (Star Tribune). The liberal number is too lo9w and the moderates are too high.
Third Partisan breakdown is off, we have over 38% DFLers here now and I can promise you that self IDed republicans are down below 30%. The DFL won a budget battle this spring and will expand their majorities on a local level.
Fourth the geographical breakdown is mind boggling, so the Twin Cities area includes the 4th 5th 3rd and parts of the 2nd and 6th CD's still There is now way that McCain is within 5% of Obama with the 3 fourth and 5th making up over 75% of the sample. The 4th and 5th will go for Obama by over 15% the third by over 8% now way McCain makes up that much ground in the redneck suburbs like Rogers or down south. I find it hard to believe that the Western MN is going bigger for Obama than the NE. Frankly if there was one area of the state McCain should win it would be the West part as it is really republican (I grew up there I know this).
The gender breakdown is plausible but it is likely that there will be a greater female vote (I think 52-48 for females), they don't give a racial breakdown but the Senate poll shows some goofiness going on.
So onto the Senate Poll:
First off Male voters will not outnumber female voters, this poll shows them doing that. It won't happen.
Again the age breakdown is weird as 18-34 out number 65+ again even with an Obama surge in youth voters that isn't going down.
Third, the racial breakdowns are complete bunk, 50% of hispanics are undecided, no that is wrong. Coleman getting nearly 40% of the AA vote, again who did they call to do this poll, Michael Steele? The Other vote (a combination of Native Americans and Asian Americans (MN has a decent sized Hmong/Lao population) seems pretty close to being right.
Fourth party affliation looks screwed up as Independents out number republicans here. Independents having 18% of the electorate is implausible here in MN.
The regional breakdown doesn't look horrendous except for the NE which is not going to vote for Coleman. The democrats up their are long time democrats and a party traitor doesn't get much from them. The only time in recent memory that a republican won that district was Rod Grams (a native son) in a republican landslide (1994) against a Weak candidate.
So SUSA doesn't know MN look to Ras or the Star Tribune instead for accurate polling of this state. SUSA may be good elsewhere, but they don't know MN.