Obama is a rock star, Ras puts him up 1 in VA

From Rasmussen Reports:

Obama 45 McCain 44.

here is the linky to Ras:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/virginia/election_2008 _virginia_presidential_election

Some highlights:


The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Virginia voters finds Obama with a statistically insignificant one-percentage point lead over McCain, 45% to 44%. Five percent (5%) favor a third-party candidate, and 7% are undecided. Last month, with Hillary Clinton still in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, McCain led Obama 47% to 44%.

McCain has lost ground among both male voters over the past month. He leads Obama among men 49% to 41%, but a month earlier his lead was nearly twice that size (15%). Women voters currently favor Obama 48% to 39%, little changed from a month ago.

The Republican candidate's lead among unaffiliated voters has vanished. Last month McCain had a 19% lead over Obama among these voters. Now the two candidates are essentially even.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters say bringing the troops home from Iraq is more important than winning the war (41%).

So a third party candidate draws 5% here and 7% are undeicded.  The economy is the big issue.

McCain has better favorables than Obama as he has 59-37 while Obama is 54-44.

The ground Obama made up is among males and independents.  He hasn't really increased his strength among the cohorts that were Sen. Clinton's strengths.

I don't have access to the cross tabs but it would be interesting to see in which geographic regions Obama's gains were in.

Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, VA (all tags)

Comments

36 Comments

Virginia is in play, that's great

It's pretty badass that it's that close in Virginia at all.

I've heard that Bob Barr has some popularity down there.  I hope he campaigns... strongly. :)

by Dracomicron 2008-06-16 01:52PM | 0 recs
Yeah

Virginia isn't a candidate for a huge :"unity bump" like the states of Arkansas, massachutesettes, New york and other states where Hillary dominated.

But it is good to see that more than one pollster thinks it is competitive (also this result falls pretty close to the projected result of Nate Silver's forecast over at 538.

by Student Guy 2008-06-16 01:54PM | 0 recs
Man that Student Guy

is an idiot, doesn't he know that it is spelled Massachusetts...

by Student Guy 2008-06-16 02:02PM | 0 recs
Student Guy!!!!

You're back! Yippee! :-)

And yes, great diary. I'm SO relieved to see Obama doing this well in Virginia. If he can simply flip Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Ohio, he'll have a solid electoral victory in November.

by atdleft 2008-06-16 02:08PM | 0 recs
You can lay

the blame mostly on the feet of sricki, telling me about a troll who was being sexist and I couldn't stand for that kind of trollery so I got pulled back.

I am still working on that thing I discussed with you and should be done by Sunday (Saturday is going to be a day of sleeping).

by Student Guy 2008-06-16 02:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia is in play, that's great

https:/www.bobbarr2008.com/donate

by Dumbo 2008-06-16 08:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama is a rock star, Ras puts him up 1 in VA

Great.

I'll bet the people who find the Gallup poll troubling will suddenly be cynical of "polls".

by spacemanspiff 2008-06-16 01:54PM | 0 recs
Yeah

The trend of this poll is nice too as it shows Obama rising in both polling and in favorables/unfavorables.

Note it is better than Nate's projection of a tiny McCain win

by Student Guy 2008-06-16 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama is a rock star, Ras puts him up 1 in VA

You need to do what I am doing and take a month off.  I am not saying you ignore the news, but try to keep yourself from obsessing over every news cycle.  After the insane primary I need this mental break before over obsessing about the general.  

by Xris 2008-06-16 06:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama is a rock star,

Hell yeah!

by Reaper0Bot0 2008-06-16 01:55PM | 0 recs
This has to be a joke!

First of all it's sooo late in the season,

Second of all, whats up with "Pure McCain"

That is a play off of Pure Cocaine.  If it isn't than I dont what it is.

by DemsLandslide2008 2008-06-16 02:00PM | 0 recs
Re: This has to be a joke!

damnit, wrong thread!

I thought it was the soda one (saw Rockstar in the title and mixed it up with the Rockstar brand energy drink).

by DemsLandslide2008 2008-06-16 02:01PM | 0 recs
Re: This has to be a joke!

I think it could be offensive, but it refers to "pure cane"-sweetened cola.  Most American sodas (aside from the imported Mexican stuff and some gourmet soft drinks) are made with high fructose corn syrup.

by Can I Haz Moar Snark 2008-06-16 02:12PM | 0 recs
This is excellent news.

Not that Rasmussen is always great, but being that close is pretty incredible, regardless. If Obama wins VA, it will shake the GOP to its core.

by sricki 2008-06-16 02:02PM | 0 recs
Well looking at what I could

find of the internals, There isn't really a unity bump here as his democratic support is 1% higher than last month.  If he were to consolidate the democratic base and win say 83% up from his current 76% he would be around 48% with a third party drawing 5% that is goo enough for a win.

And Rasmussen isn't great but comparing to the last months polls it is a noticeable improvement in the category of independents and moderates.

by Student Guy 2008-06-16 02:05PM | 0 recs
Re: This is excellent news.

Rassmussen is pretty reliable - they did the best in 2004, I think, and I attribute it to their slight GOP bias making up for slight GOP shenanigans at the polls.  So if you gotta pick a pollster and stick with him, I use Rasmussen - also, he polls a lot, so that helps :)

by Mikey 2008-06-16 02:36PM | 0 recs
Hey StudentGuy

Didn't you just leave. :p

Seriously though, glad you're already back and with good news to boot!

I work for a local party in VA, and let me tell you that we are fired up and ready to go! With Barack Obama and Mark Warner at the top of the ticket, this is the year we turn Virginia blue!

by CrazyDrumGuy 2008-06-16 03:09PM | 0 recs
Yeah I did

but the rumors of my eminent demise proved to be false (I really hate that Student Guy for spreading them...).

I was looking over at Ras and saw this and it is good augurs as he was down 3 in the previous poll.

by Student Guy 2008-06-16 03:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama is a rock star, Ras puts him up 1 in VA

"McCain has lost ground among both male voters over the past month."

What, there's only two dudes planning to vote in VA this year?

by John in Chicago 2008-06-16 03:10PM | 0 recs
I am guessing they

meant male voters and independents from the info I could obtain from this.

I'd really like to see the cross-tabs on this poll, especially geographic breakdown.

by Student Guy 2008-06-16 03:13PM | 0 recs
Re: I am guessing they

I figured that's what you meant. I just was compelled to make a smart ass comment. Sorry. ;-)

by John in Chicago 2008-06-16 04:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama is a rock star, Ras puts him up 1 in VA

There are a lot of things lining up to make Obama win, not least of which is McCain himself.

My gun-collecting friends I spent the weekend with are very cynical about Obama, but they think McCain is useless.  They are precisely the kind of folks to answer "McCain" on a survey, but who will be likely to forget about going to the polls in Nov if there is a good rerun of McHale's Navy on that day or a loose tile that needs fixing.  They are upside down on their mortgage, both working and economically strapped.  She's an RN and he has a prosthetic leg and they are fed up with the condition of healthcare.  They are incredibly pissed off with the state of the nation and blame the current administration for it.

Remind me again who is going to rush enthusiastically out to the polls and vote GOP in the general election?

by chrisblask 2008-06-16 03:18PM | 0 recs
Um

John McCain and his immediate family...
Laura Bush (but not her daughter Jenna)

That is all I can think of.

by Student Guy 2008-06-16 03:27PM | 0 recs
And can we really be

sure about Laura?  

by GFORD 2008-06-16 09:02PM | 0 recs
Yeah she said so on

Larry King that she was voting for the republican, however Jenna said she would have to look at the issues.

by Student Guy 2008-06-16 09:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama is a rock star, Ras puts him up 1 in VA

Hey SG, I hear that there's an absolutely brutal new SUSA poll out on Franken vs. Coleman.

by rfahey22 2008-06-16 04:50PM | 0 recs
Ooh

I need to go check that out...

So very exciting to see SUSA polling the race now that Franken won the DFL endorsement (democrats in MN).

by Student Guy 2008-06-16 05:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Ooh
Coleman - 52
Franken - 40
by RussTC3 2008-06-16 07:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Ooh

Ugh, I always forget to put the link.

SurveyUSA 6/10-6/12

They also polled for Ventura:

Coleman (R) - 41%
Franken (DFL) - 31%
Ventura (I) - 23%

by RussTC3 2008-06-16 07:41PM | 0 recs
Ouch

that is not good.  Still, if we can make it about the issues Al will win.  I like the fact that he is advertising here as it is thought of as a  pro-Hillary Clinton blog and that would be the part of the party where he would be weak due to the latest kerpluffle.

by Student Guy 2008-06-16 07:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama is a rock star, Ras puts him up 1 in VA

Yes. Obama is a rock star. And in the eyes of the media, he's Jesus too, judging by the Associated Press picture, appropriately accompanying a story today on MSNBC, in which Obama is seeing being "baptized" by the holy spirit, so to speak.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25192261/

by kingsbridge77 2008-06-16 06:10PM | 0 recs
If my hopes and expectations are met....

For the rest of my life get to say, "I cast one of the votes that elected the very first black President"

by USArmyParatrooper 2008-06-16 08:09PM | 0 recs
Same here

I didn't vote for him in my caucus (voted for Edwards), but he has had my vote for certain since he became the nominee.  I was supporting him since Late February.

by Student Guy 2008-06-16 08:24PM | 0 recs
Need I mention again

No Democrat has won Virginia's electoral votes since LBJ wiped the floor with Goldwater in 1964.  Not even Southerners Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.  For a black guy from Chicago to be competitive here...These are 13 electoral votes McCain cannot afford to lose.

by Skaje 2008-06-16 08:41PM | 0 recs
good reality check; it's gonna be tough but...

...I love the thought of McSame pouring limited funds into what should be "safe" red states. I used to scoff at the idea that Hillary had made Barack "tougher" and "a better campaigner", but goddamn! She sure toughened him up, and made him a hell of a campaigner! Go Dems!

"The effects of opposition are wonderful. There are men who rise refreshed on hearing a threat-men to whom a crisis which intimidates and paralyzes the majority comes graceful and beloved as a bride."
 -Ralph Waldo Emerson

by Kordo 2008-06-16 10:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama is a rock star, Ras puts him up 1 in VA

Forgive me, SG, but I'm just not seeing the light here.

It's great that VA is in play this season, but I thought that had been pretty expected at this point.  Furthermore, Virginia has 13 electoral votes.  It's not a small state electorally the same way as, say, New Hampshire...but in order for this to be something about BO actually fulfilling his "Rock Star" status electorally instead of narratively, shouldn't he be polling outside of the margin of error?

I'd much rather see Obama start polling outside the margin in OH, less than 8 points down in FL, ahead at all in MI...maybe even actually being competitive in GA like the Obama campaign thinks it can be (RCP pegs it at McCain +13!).

I don't know.  I'm really not opposed to changing the presidential strategy map, personally. It just drives me crazy that right now we're hoping, hoping, hoping, for victories in Colorado and Virginia to eke us over the electoral vote threshold to the White House instead of going after FL, OH, and MI hard.

Total EV value of Colorado and Virginia is a meager 23 electoral votes.  By comparison, Michigan, Florida, and Ohio total 67 electoral votes.

Barack Obama could even win both Colorado and Virginia, but still lose the election if he loses in MI, FL, OH, and NH.

I understand that Barack wants to change the map, but we ought to be asking ourselves, is this really the best strategy for Democrats to be pursuing the Presidency with?  Can we really say that Obama is a rock star because he's polling even with McCain in VA?

This turned out to be long and kind of concern-trollish, but, for me, the review of the electoral map that this diary prompted really just left me boggled...if anything, we should be working much, much harder--not basking in the glamor of being tied in what used to be a solid red state...

by hornplayer 2008-06-17 05:01AM | 0 recs

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