Clinton wins PA and Obama wins Nomination
by southernman, Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:51:02 PM EDT
First off, hats off to the Clinton campaign...solid win! Congratulations!!
Now let's analyze the importance of this win tonite. Hillary Clinton will go on...that's a given. But just how much have her nomination, and White House hopes improved? The smart money is they have hardly improved at all. I know I know, Hillary wins big states....Hillary is our first stringer, blah blah...the arguments for why I belive all these arguments are misguided are below the fold
First up, the idea that Hillary Clinton is winning the states that matter. Folks, I've mentioned this in the comments virtually every day for the past month. A primary win (or loss) is not indicative of general election strength. Zilch! Zip! There is no supporting evidence in our recent political history for such a claim. Want some evidence...I'll cite plenty of examples.
In 2000, Bush lost to John McCain...by over 18%. He still won NH in the general election. He lost AZ but still managed to carry it quite comfortably.
In 2000, Gore swept all primaries...but that clearly was not indicative of his general election strength.
In 1992..Bill Clinton lost IA, NH, CT, MA, RI, ME and DE. He WON THEM ALL in the general election.
The point is this. Primary results do NOT measure general election strength. The Clinton argument that this means Obama can't win certain states can apply both ways. 86 Electoral votes that DEMOCRATS MUST WIN in November were won by Obama in the primaries...states such as WA, WI, MN, IA and others. If that means Clinton can't possibly win there, (this is her own logic, not mine) then that means she can't possibly win the White House.
It's an absurd argument and I can't believe a serious candidate for President has the audacity to make such an argument. Her own husband proved those arguments wrong with his wins. Not to mention John Kerry, who lost VT to a guy no longer running, yet easily carried it in the general election. Find a better argument.
The other point that must be made about tonite's win for Clinton is that the delegate math and popular vote math are now all but impossible. She needed a crushing victory, she got a moderate one. Not good enough. The gains in the popular vote will be all but erased in NC (not even Clinton projects a win there or even much of a fight) and even should she run the table in what's left (hardly likely), she still ends up well behind.
The math went from improbable, to damn near impossible for Clinton to win this nomination.
I congratulate her on her win tonite...it's a solid win after a solid campaign against a great opponent. I also have to say this for Barack Obama...undaunted by poll #'s...he put up a great fight. At least he challenged the state....which is something that Clinton hasn't done much of. Clinton only seems to compete where she's already winning...the others, including solid blue and battleground states..such as CO, MN and others, she's simply not shown up and told us they don't matter.
If anything...one has to be proud that Obama hasn't pulled that stupid stunt. He's fought for votes everywhere, win or lose. Clinton fights where she's ahead, and makes excuses where she's behind.
She won a great win tonite. But, let's face it...she needed much more...and she didn't get it. She has no chance of a popular vote win and no chance of a pledged delegate win...no chance of a state win or even a regional win...both have won states in every region of the country.
She's bought herself two weeks. But the end result is clear. She's lost the nomination (unless it's handed to her by superdelegates who believe the ridiculous nonsense about big states being all that matter).
Congrats Hillary. You've bought yourself two weeks. But it's over. You needed a tidal wave, and you got a ripple!One more thing. I'm hearing a lot of talk on here about "Caucuses where only 1% turnout shouldn't be so powerful." Please enlighten us all as to WHAT you are talking about. Turnout has been high virtually everywhere. What state only had 1% turnout?