Is Kos a Lobbyist?

I think its time to look at Dailykos and the whole "progressive" movement in a new light.

I maintain that Kos is a lobbyist.  And is a lobbyist tool

It has an agenda.  It solicits money.  It punishes politicians who don't vote the way he wants.  It Lobbies.

Sure Its agenda may be one that many of us are happy about but It does lobby.

The website is used to lobby specific legislation.  

As such when Obama takes money from the Dailykos lobby why is that different than taking it from the Union lobby or the car lobby etc?

Other than feeling more comfort with the lobby how are they different from the NRA in organization?  Certainly the NRA is a lobby.

Obama in that sense is the definition of a Lobbyist candidate as he is largely a creation of the Kos internet movement.

Obama isn't against lobbyists he is against lobbyists who don't support him.

He isn't against small groups of people wielding larger influence he just wants that small group to be his friends...

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I believe in Hillary

I just wanted to write a post about how I feel about Hillary.

I believe in Hillary because She tried 16 years ago to get universal health care when she was nearly the only one passionate about it.  A democratic senate and house were unable to pass it but Hillary tried.

I believe in Hillary because Rush hates her with the hate born out of fear.

I believe in Hillary because when she was first lady she took the talk to China and stood up for women in China.  Realize that when people tell you that China paid for Bills this or that remember that Hillary was the strongest international voice for Women's rights in china and didn't pull any punches.  

I believe in Hillary because she was able to work with Newt Gingrich a man that caused a lot of trouble for her and her husband.  Thats working with everyone to get things done.

I believe in Hillary because She has 8 years with first hand knowledge of how the country should be run.

I believe in Hillary because she kept her word not to run for president until serving a  complete term as senator.  She kept her word about not campaigning in Florida even when Obama ran adds there.

I believe in Hillary because she hasn't gone negative even when Obama's wife attacked her for Bills affiar and Chris Matthews disrespected her and MSNBC's idiots called her a pimp.

I believe in Hillary because when she was young she was Obama.  Maybe not as attractive, maybe not as skilled a speaker but she is an older version of Obama.  She was every bit as idealistic as him and thats why the GOP smeared her.  But even when many in her own party smear her she still fights.

I believe in Hillary because above all she is a fighter.  No one in the game of politics will deny that Hillary is TOUGH.  When Edwards and Obama took turns going negative on her in the debates she was Tough.  When Rush attacked her she was tough.  When we need her in the White house she will be tough.

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Is Rezko a Lobbyist?

Obama and Rezko is a familiar theme.

But Rezko is a lobbyist.

His problem with the FBI is that he wanted kickbacks or he would kill legislation.


Does the average guy know a LOBBYIST helped buy Obama's house ?

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Daily Obama message

Cult messages for the true believers

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How the delegates stack up in the general election Advantage Hillary

OK here are the swing states

First the states within 5% in 2000 (was last close election)

Florida, <0.0092%
New Mexico, 0.06%
Wisconsin, 0.22%
Iowa, 0.31%
Oregon, 0.44%
New Hampshire, 1.27%
Minnesota, 2.40%
Missouri, 3.34%
Ohio, 3.51%
Nevada, 3.55%
Tennessee, 3.86%
Pennsylvania, 4.17%

Then States Bill Clinon carried that weren't close in 2000.  

The sum of these two lists is every close state in 2000 and every state that changed red to blue or vice versa between 1992 and 2004.  I believe there are no other swing states.

OK now break them down with electoral votes I will put a R on states that Bush carried  in 2000 and D on states Gore carried I am using 2004 delegate numbers to be closer to the 2008 numbers.

Hillary Won or will clearly win
R 27  Florida, <0.0092%
D 5   New Mexico, 0.06%
R 10  Arizona
R  6   Arkansas
R 11 Tennessee, 3.86%
R 20 Ohio, 3.51%  HRC is up 17 pts in polls over BHO
R 5   Nevada, 3.55%
R 4    New Hampshire, 1.27%

R 83  D 5 total 88

Obama Won
R   9      Lousiana
D 11     Missouri, 3.34%
R  15     Georgia
D   7      Iowa, 0.31%
R    9     Colorado
D  10    Minnesota, 2.40%

R 33 D 28 total 61

Not yet voted
D 10    Wisconsin, 0.22%
D  7   Oregon, 0.44%
D  21    Pennsylvania, 4.17%
R   8    Kentucky
R   3    Montana

So the total democratic close states we won in 2000 delegate count is 71 and we lost by 4 delegates.

So roughly 75 delegates from the above are needed to win, the 71 gore carried and ~4 more.  The total delegates in the above swing states is 198.  My delegate numbers are 2004 numbers to be closer to 2008 but you get the point as this doesn't change much.

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Obama Bush and the quest to win with fewer votes.

Obama Bush and his team want to win with fewer total popular votes cast for them than Hillary.

They don't want Florida to count.

They start petitions to have Florida not count.

They don't want super delegates to count unless they rubber stamp the pledged delegate count total.  Not the popular vote total.  Not the most electable candidate.

Obama Bush can't depend on Jeb Bush to steal Florida for him in the general election.

He needs you to do it in the primary for him.

Please support Obama Bush in his quest to win with fewer that the Bush legacy of election stealing can live on with Obama Bush

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Why I am not sad Obama is splitting the party

Obama fan 1:  Why don't you love obama like we love Obama he is so dreamy

Obama Fan 2:  Hillary is a corperation sponsored racist

Hillary Fan:  Fuck you

Obama Fan 1:  Why do you hate us we are full of love.

Obama Fan 2:  Fuck you we are winning all the red states and independents.

Hillary Fan:  Hillary will win if all the votes are counted that includes Florida and Michigan.

Obama Fan 2:  They better not count Florida thats not fair.  The super delegates better not vote for Hillary thats not fair.

Hillary Fan:  Fuck you

Obama Fan 1 :  Wow you Hillary fans are not lovers look at Obama he makes me happy.

Hillary Fan:  Fuck all you whiners we will laugh at you when Hillary wins.

Obama Fan 1:  Why are you so mean to us.  Why is Mydd not a haven for Obama love?

Hillary Fan:  Sigh

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Gwen Ifill on Meet the Press

I saw Gwen Ifill on meet the press and I realized how much I miss watching the McNeil Laurer News Hour.  She was talking about Clinton/Obama and I realized from listening to her that I couldn't figure out who she wanted to win.

One of the things I really liked about watching Gergen Shields talk about politics way back when was that only very rarely could you tell which was the conservative and which was the liberal.  They both told the facts and worked very hard to hide their own bias.

I wish MSNBC, FOX, Daily show, Colber report were more like PBS in that regard.

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How to solve Howard Deans Problem and Mend the Party

Ok Dean wants to have a nominee before the convention and unless that nominee is Hillary with Obama as VP I just don't see it happening that way unless Obama can win states he isn't supposed to win which so far hasn't happened.

But Deans real problem is we need to make a Democrats vs Republican campaign sooner than that.

The solution is to start running the ads early.  Run adds showing Hillary and Obama together talking together and highlighting how their shared view of XYZ makes them better than McCain.

This would work even better if Hillary and Obama agreed that the loser would be the winners VP so that the Hillary and Obama TEAM could start the GOP smackdown.

Because its early Both Hillary and Obama could be pushed into the be VP if you lose or else the DNC will campaign to make sure you lose angle.

The ads could be sold as hi we are the democratic president and VP candidates, we are not yet sure which is which but we are sure that John McCain is not the right choice for America because of XYZ.

Hillary gains because Dean won't be pushing for undemocratic solve this mess fast tricks.

Obama wins because he gets good coverage at a National level for his next run and VP should he lose.

They both win over the others supporters as this would tend to ease the I am not voting unless my guy or gal wins thing.

NOTE:  This is only a good idea if the FBI stuff on Obama comes up empty because he would drag it down if he is campaigning from jail.

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Obama is the anti-Bush and why thats bad.

1)  Politics isn't about doing what you think is right and should win if the universe was fair and being willing to risk all your power if you are wrong.  Politics is about making smart decisions that allow you to MAXIMIZE your ability to influence the outcome towards what you think is right.  Obama and more importantly his supporters don't understand this.  They will want to make everything right and be willing to go for broke on each issue.  The problem with going for broke on a large number of issues is that eventually you do end up broke.  If you notice thats EXACTLY what happened to Bush and the GOP.  How many issues did Bush go for broke on?  Taxes, social security, patriot act, Anti-electrical regulation in california, Iraq War, Terror, Stem cells, Torture, Justices, Immigration, Religion in science,
Support for Israel, Globalization etc etc etc.  Obviously we need to roll back the Bush crap but Obama and more importantly his supporters want to literally be the anti-Bush and make the same mistakes on the other side which will ruin the party.

2)  Obama will support foolish and unpopular ideas in his quest to be progressive and true to himself.  Opposing the war in Iraq was VERY unpopular in 2002, history as we understand it today has broken Obama's way for the moment.  However history as we understood it after we took Baghdad was very different.  Obama was not intrinsically right on the war issue in a political sense, rather the tactical stupidity of the Bush team to not invest the troop count they needed and not have the infrastructure planning needed caused the war to be unpopular.  Had Bush Jr mounted a smart tactical war like Bush Sr did Obama's career would have been almost over and Democrats had they joined him would have no political capital to resist the attack on social security, the patriot act, torture, loss of civil rights etc.  A party can't afford to be a risk taker with 20 years of legacy over and over again based on one man.

3)  Clinton and Obama have very different backers.  Clinton is backed from the traditional democratic party, people who for better or worse have come out to support the party for decades, insiders, poor, women, hispanics, asians, but all DEMOCRATS with non radical individual agendas.  Obama has a very fragile anti-Bush coalition of greens, "progressives", youth, blacks, rich liberals, libertarian, gop etc.  Bush Jr also had a fragile coalition of religious conservatives, Arab Americans, Hispanics, Moderates etc but couldn't keep them together once it was clear that what the conservatives wanted was to kick out the hispanics and declare war on the Arabs etc.  Obama has the same problem with his coalition, the change they want is not the same change.  

The Bush disaster has shifted the balance of power to the Democrats.  Possibly for the next 20 years.  McCain winning the GOP nomination signals a loss of power of the far right.  An Obama win would ease this shift because he will be the liberal Bush and make giant tactical mistakes that hurt his party.

Being right on the war isn't enough.  Bush was right on appointing Blacks into his administration and courting Abab and Muslims in 2000 and cold have made serious inroads into that voting segment if it wasn't for all the other things he fucked up.  

Being right on one issue isn't enough if you are always ready to risk it all on the next issue.  Because eventually you lose and its only the smart, insider, will do anything, changes to match what people want politicians that survive.  What Obama's supporters hate about Hillary is exactly what makes her more able to deliver positive change.

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