Why Hillary Must Win NC

There's been a lot of talk lately about how Obama must demonstrate appeal to White, Blue-Collar voters, and while I would agree that this is a legitimate concern, it is also one that Obama has counters for (Wisconsi, Minnesotea, Virgina, Iowa, etc), what I feel is  a far more pressing concern is Hillary's Republicanesque numbers among the African-American vote (she draws less AA votes by percentag, than Goerge Bush did in 2000).

Given Rep. Clyburn's recent remarks on the betrayal felt  by many in the African-American community, and the fear among SDs that these remarks may prove to be prophetic, it becomes clear that if Hillary is to have any hope of becoming the Democratic Nominee she must demonstrate at least some crossover appeal among Obama's demographics. Given the current state of the race the only opportunity remaing for Hillary to demonstrate that she can win over the necessary support of the Democratic Party's most loyal base is in North Carolina, given this her decision to let the last major state in the contest go is puzzling to say the least and is quite possibly a fatal mistake(in terms of Delegates North carolina is more significant thatn NJ or MA, but for some reason Hillary is allowing it to go to Obama virtually without protest).  

So I ask you8 my fellow readers, why has the media ignored the fact that NC is essentially a must win for Hillary Clinton, in order to chase the story of Obama needing to shore up support among BLue-Collar Whites?

Tags: AA, Clyburn, Hillary, nc, North Carolina, obama (all tags)

Comments

39 Comments

Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

I don't think she needs to win, but she needs to get within 5pts in order to maintain a plausible popular vote lead and to further emphasize Obama's weakness among working-class whites. She also needs to demonstrate an ability to either perform better with whites age 18-29 or some subset of african-americans, possibly african-american women age 60+.

by blueflorida 2008-04-27 10:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

"She needs to get within 5pts in order to maintain a plausible popular vote lead and to further emphasize Obama's weakness among working-class whites"????

1) what she really needs to do is win by 20+ points to have a chance

2) as much as many would like it to, the popular vote has no bearing on this contest

3) the quicker you come to terms with points 1 and 2 the quicker we can move on to reuniting the party

Bonus point) Senator Clinton and her surrogates (and supporters) can emphasize "Obama's weakness among working-class whites" all they want. The super delegates seem to have caught on to his strengths as well, a big part of the equation that is usually left out in these discussions.

cheers

by lizardbox 2008-04-27 10:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

There's another point that needs to be stressed: the supers will need a VERY strong reason not to just punt and let the winner of the elected delegates, umm, win.

They're likely to look for excuses and rays of sunshine in Obama's exit poll numbers, while simultaneously looking for reasons to bury Clinton.

by Mostly 2008-04-27 11:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

Nobody needs to look for any reasons to bury Clinton. There's one big reason that many seem to have forgotten: February.

by lizardbox 2008-04-27 11:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

Boutique states all.

by Mostly 2008-04-27 11:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

shhhhhhhh, else they'll hear you!

by lizardbox 2008-04-27 11:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

http://www.indecision2008.com/video/inde x.jhtml?videoId=166850

Stewart let the cat out of the bag, LOL!

by FOB92 2008-04-28 03:43AM | 0 recs
She needs 69% of both contests to...

... remain competitive in the over all race.

by dystopianfuturetoday 2008-04-28 12:18AM | 0 recs
Because it isn't a "must win" for her.

she's expected to lose there, the only question is the margin.  Neither Obama nor Clinton will have the magic number of delegates in June.  the supers will decide.

by 4justice 2008-04-27 10:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Because it isn't a "must win"

Obama will have more, though, so it's entirely more likely they'll go his way; in particular if he does well in NC and IN.

by ragekage 2008-04-27 10:36PM | 0 recs
It's not that simple.

Do you at least get that the larger the PD deficit at convention, the larger the number of SDs she needs to talk into circumventing the results of the process up to that point?

It isn't about the expectation game at this point.  It's about how likely it is that she can create a SD coup at the convention.  If she goes to convention needing only to convince 54% of the SDs to give her the nomination she is far more likely to succeed than if she walks into convention needing 75% of the remaining SDs to hand her the nomination.

If she doesn't win N.C., and by a large margin, she will have no chance remaining to walk into the convention in need of less than about three quarters of the supers.  

by lockewasright 2008-04-27 10:53PM | 0 recs
They're all 'must wins'.

"The supers will decide" is a talking point.  If they were to punt and split 50/50, Obama would win.

Or to put it another way, if Obama wins, it means that the will of the voters has been ratified.  If Clinton wins, then it hasn't.

by Mostly 2008-04-27 10:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

If Obama gets 90% of the AA vote (40% of voters) and 30% of the white vote (60% of voters) he will win 54% to 46%. And, judging from the diary and the comments I assume that no superdelegates will consider his weak performance among the white voters. It's not the margin. it's the internals. To assuage superdelegate angst, Obama must show that he can win a reasonable percentage of the white vote. If he can't win them, as previous exit polls have shown, he risks their defection to McCain. If Hillary is unable to attract AA or young voters, some may stay home but defections to McCain who stands for everything they fear and hate are much less likely.

by STUBALL 2008-04-27 10:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

It's the margins that matter: the Democrats win the black vote by huge margins every year, and lose the white votes by smaller margins.  If Hillary Clinton can't prove that she can not only win 80+% of them, but more importantly, turn them out in huge numbers, it puts all states in play, and jeopardizes most down-ticket races, which rely on a heavy black turnout as well.

by Mostly 2008-04-27 10:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

The white voter problem is largely a myth. The reason he struggles with this group is because of white women who favor Hillary Clinton. Because of the historic nature of her candidacy this group is largely ungetable by him in the primaries, though there have been a few exceptions here and there. He has done decently among white men, winning that group in several contests and even improving his margins among them between Ohio and Pennsylvania despite the doom and gloom claims of the fallout from Wright, bitter, etc.

by Obama Independent 2008-04-27 11:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

I applaud you for a sensible, thoughtful analysis even though we support different candidates. Such insights should get mojo.

by Sandeep 2008-04-28 01:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

his victory speech in NC should start with, "The tide is turning!"    Seems only fair.   Hillary was always expected to win PA and she spun it with "the tide is turning.." logically it doesn't make sense but whatever.

by soros 2008-04-27 11:20PM | 0 recs
its more like.

the tide is really turning!!!

After PA I think it turned like maybe 3 degrees.

by kindthoughts 2008-04-27 11:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

Hillary just has to get within 20% and that's a victory for her.

moves goalposts some more

by Skaje 2008-04-28 12:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

Unfortunatley guys, Hillary must win NC and Indiana both by 25%+, and must, after that, win all the remaining contests with 100% of the vote in order to have a shot.

<snark>

by zcflint05 2008-04-28 12:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

Well mathematically yeah, but I think perceptions matter too.  She can't be repeatedly blown out, especially with a demographic that the Democratic party relies upon.

by Mostly 2008-04-28 12:27AM | 0 recs
&quot;Clinton needs to win NC&quot;

is a talking point perpetuated by Obama camp to raise the bar above and beyond anyone's realistic expectations and then point to it to justify their cries for Hillary to step down.

Don't buy into the hype. Hillary will lose NC as expected because the current trend of AA voters breaking 9-to-1 for Obama makes it impossible for her to claim victory in that particular state.

by axian 2008-04-28 02:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

Math:
52% of the US population are blue collar whites
13% are Blacks.

The end. Appealing to a minority is not a strength. Not when you have been dumb enough to alienate the majority.

Clinton is doign fine, her campaign is on the rise. So stop making this shit about "she needs to win this and that " shit up. How about we count Mi and Fl, like you do in actual democracies, then tell me who needs to win what.

by soopermouse 2008-04-28 02:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

If you count MI and FL, Hillary still must win NC and IN by 20 to remain competitive in the pledged delegate race.  I just ran the numbers on the Slate delegate counter.  Just sayin'...  

by SpideyDem 2008-04-28 03:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

"52% of the US population are blue collar whites"

Um yeah, I'm goign to need to see some proof of this one as that seems absurdly high, only 70% or so of the nation is white and to define more than 70% of that as blue-collar seems ot be stretching the definition of the term beyond the point of meaning.

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-28 04:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

Just to put things in perspective:
With 40% of African american electorate Obama starts with atleast 36% advantage more like 38%. All he needs are 27% whites to get a double digit lead.

Getting 27% white vote would be a massacre in the GE.

by indydem99 2008-04-28 03:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

Who says he's getting 27% of white vote in NC?  Those sorts of margins among white voters have only occurred in a few states like AL, MS, and TN.  Will not happen in NC.  Obama won the white vote over Hillary in VA and all over the upper Midwest and Mountain West.  He was competitive among whites in big states like TX, GA and CA, among others.  Latest polling out of NC shows Obama and McCain tied - hardly a disaster.

by SpideyDem 2008-04-28 03:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

VA happened well before the BitterGate and Wright.

After these comments, some states he had high approval in has nosedivided - SC, VA, MO

by Jaz 2008-04-28 04:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

That's a fair point.  But everything except PA happened before BitterGate and Wright.  So is PA the only appropriate point of comparison?  I still think the prior contests mean something.  I guess we'll have good tests of his continued viability among whites in IN, MT, SD, and OR.  As for NC, as the original commenter noted, if the AA/white vote splits like it did in PA or even worse for Obama, he will still have a pretty big victory.

by SpideyDem 2008-04-28 04:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

I have some relatives in NC (white) and they all say they're voting for Obama. ;)

by Becky G 2008-04-28 05:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

Rock on, Becky G.  Rock on.

by SpideyDem 2008-04-28 05:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

They all say that. We have seen the exit polls before!

by indydem99 2008-04-29 07:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

NC

Obama 58%
Clinton 42%

IN

Obama 52%
Clinton 48%

by Bobby Obama 2008-04-28 04:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

I don't want to ruin the expectations game, but I think BHO will do a lot better than that in NC.

by SpideyDem 2008-04-28 04:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

Is this diarist entirely crazy or trying to be clever. Black voters represent about 34% of the electorate in NC and Obama will pull 90% of them as the make a tribal based decision. No one has ever expected Clinton to win NC so why is it a must win. Sometimes the postings here are so juvenile they become incredibly boring and this is one of them.  

by ottovbvs 2008-04-28 04:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

Hmmm. so when Obama loses Penn. its huge but if Hillary gets blown out in a major state, its ho hum Hillary gets destroyed again, nothing to see here... yeah, right if you don't think Hillary's pathetic showing among African American voters worries the SDs then you don't understand how Democrats win elections.

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-28 05:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

 "the (sic) make a tribal based decision." WTF?

by nogo war 2008-04-28 04:53AM | 0 recs
North Carolina is a must win for Obama,

because he is expected to win there.  

by Beltway Dem 2008-04-28 05:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary Must Win NC

Barack will do extremely well in NC and will do better than expectations in IN.

Obama's overall main problem is with older white women.  They seem to feel some sort of a gender-based, geriatric connection with her. He does quite well though with younger white women between 18-39.

IMHO, once he's the nominee, we will see his numbers among blue collar white men start to increase remarkably.

by april34fff 2008-04-28 07:11AM | 0 recs

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